Solving Climate Change by 2050: Efficiency, Efficiency, Efficiency (Part 5)

In the 1960s, cautioning that federal spending had a way of getting out of control, Senator Everett Dirksen reportedly observed, “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” Well, as the cataloging of the vast and varied contributors of carbon emissions in previous parts of this series and summarized in the table below should attest: A billion tons of carbon here, a billion tons there, and pretty soon you’re talking real climate change.?

But the billions can be rolled back, too. Cyclists packing their panniers for their first road trips are cautioned, “If you take care of the ounces, the pounds will take care of themselves.” If we make efficiency a key component of our climate solution strategy, we can, bit by bit, drastically reduce the amount of carbon we either have to reduce or capture.?

Efficiencies must be gained in two key areas: energy and materials.?

Energy Efficiency?

A?2020 study?found that energy efficiency policies and programs enacted over previous decades in the U.S. saved so much energy in 2017 that, without them, U.S. energy use would have been about 23% higher. These policies and programs included fuel economy standards, appliance and equipment standards, the Energy Star efficiency program, utility sector efficiency programs, and energy codes for buildings. For example, standards have reduced energy usage of appliances by 80% since 1980 (saving the average American household about $500 a year).

The Wall Street Journal?recently painted a vision of a near-term future of “net-zero homes” that are so energy-efficient that adding “a little solar with that” would let them require zero electricity or natural gas from the grid. The article notes homes and commercial buildings use 40 percent of all the energy consumed in the U.S.?

More broadly, a very smart?research report?by the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy offers found that energy use and greenhouse gas emissions can be cut in half by 2050 through energy efficiency. The greatest savings were from efficient and electric vehicles, industrial efficiency and decarbonization, transportation system efficiency, upgrades to existing buildings and homes, zero energy new buildings and homes, and appliance and equipment efficiency. These are captured in the figure below.??

An overview of the 11 major opportunities and related policies to capture these efficiencies can be found in?this fact sheet.

Materials Efficiency?

Although we’ll need to make a lot more things by 2050, as the population increases and poorer countries race to improve their economies, we can use less material to make those things. We can also shift to using materials that involve fewer emissions.?

For example, the International Resource Panel, an arm of the UN, has developed?a number of efficiency strategies?that could, by 2050, collectively reduce emissions by 80% for materials used in homes and 57% for materials used in cars.?These strategies can be deployed starting now, with existing technologies.?

Among the greatest opportunities, as highlighted in the below infographic,??are designing lighter buildings, to reduce the use of carbon-intensive materials such as steel, cement, and glass; using wood, a carbon-neutral source, instead of reinforced concrete and masonry; and improving the recycling of materials used in buildings and cars.?

Here’s the takeaway:?The easiest ton of carbon to eliminate is the one we never produced.

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If we utilize the scientific and technological capabilities enabled by our collective creativity to execute effectively on the first three prongs of our climate strategy: (1) get all electricity from net-zero sources, (2) electrify everything possible, and (3) introduce efficiencies that lower energy needs and emissions, we will go a long way towards reaching net-zero by 2050.??But, there will be serious gaps left to address. The next parts of this series will deal with how to address those gaps by making the scientific breakthroughs we need (prong 4) and developing and deploying technologies that make it feasible to pull massive amounts of carbon from the air (prong 5).??Please follow me here or at my website to be notified when those articles are released.

This series is adapted from my recent book, "A Brief History of a Perfect Future: Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050," coauthored with Paul B. Carroll and Tim Andrews (Future Histories Press 2021).

Read the rest of this series:

1. Here's How We Can (Mostly) Solve Climate Change by 2050 (Part 1)
2. What Might a Prime Minister Greta Thunberg Celebrate by 2050? (Part 2)
3. Renewable Energy is Critical But Not Enough (Part 3)
4. Next, Electrify Everything Possible (Part 4)
5. Efficiency, Efficiency, Efficiency (Part 5)
6. Other Scientific Breakthroughs We Need—and Why We Can Make Them (Part 6)
7. Carbon Capture From Air (Part 7)
8. Getting There From Here (Part 8 and Conclusion)

I focus on innovation at the intersection of advance technology and societal good. I'm also the?author of?five books on innovation?including, most recently, "A Brief History of a Perfect Future: Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050." To be notified about future articles, subscribe at my?website.?