#Soft_Target #Terrorism
Ralph R. Fisk Jr., ATO, PCP-1, MEMS,
Counter and Antiterrorism, Contemporary Threats, Emergency Management, Physical Security Threats; RET USA SNCO
We are barely in to 2017 yet there was a significant terror attack last night in Istanbul, Turkey. Which prompted this post. Please feel free to share if you are so inclined.
Last night/early this morning Istanbul, Turkey time; 2017 started out with another soft target terrorist attack. Reports of more than 35 killed and 50 + wounded were shot by suspect (s) in a crowded, some reports say as many as 700 people, night club. As of the writing of this post, 16 of those killed were "foreign nationals" unknown if any were from the United States. While this doesn’t meet to modus operandi (MO) of many of the terrorist groups that operate in Turkey; The TAK/PKK or DHKP-C which are Kurdish and Marxist-Leninists respectfully; it does fit the pattern of Islamic Terror Groups such as ISIS.
Terrorists learned that 9-11, that was a "once in a lifetime" attack, a “Black Swan” if you will.
ISIS either directed or inspired attacks have had the mentality of why attack "Big" when "small" serves the same purpose. Now I am not saying that a large-scale attack isn’t still possible. Because they are. But my assessment is that in the near future we will see more of these smaller scale attacks more so than the large scale.
I have become increasing annoyed by the phrase “no credible or specific threat”. If some haven't "figured it" out yet; terrorists aren't going after the "World Trade Center" type attacks; they have adjusted their tactics, to focus on the Soft Target. Current terrorist MO leads to my assessment; that terrorists will continue to attack those targets that present the least resistance. My assessment; with the inspired attacks of late there has been no threat reported before the fact!
Sadly, terrorists have adjusted their tactics; long before we have!
Looking at the stats; there have been more terrorist attacks in the US in the last eight years since 9-11, all by lonewolves not Organized Groups. When there was no “no credible or specific threats” San Bernardino; Fort Hood; Orlando; Chattanooga, Little Rock, AR, NYC/NJ Bombings; Boston; OSU; Another terrorist group tactic has declared that any and all civilians are justifiable targets. The only attack that would not necessarily fall into this soft target methodology, would have been the attack on Fort Hood. Which could and should be categorized as an Insider Terrorist Attack.
The attack in Istanbul, while being a world away, is no different than attacks on Paris, Nice, London, Madrid, or Berlin, or the attacks on US soil that I listed above.
We need to train people to be more cognizant of their surroundings; we need to train to be proactive and not reactive; what to do and how to get out. But instead “we’ll” probably keep the status quo because, instead of being ready, we don’t want to freak out the villagers. I will always bring up Israel. Israel trains for terrorist attacks with their populations all the time. That’s why Israelis don’t freak out when there is an attack.
Although this post has been about terrorism; the same methodology could be applied to other threats, Active Shooter, Weather, and others.
We could be a more prepared Nation if we weren’t so namby-pamby on facing the harsh realities of the everyday world.
I help companies and organizations around the world to prepare for the most serious crises, respond effectively during a crisis and to rebuild goodwill with critical audiences once the crisis subsides.
8 年Excellent piece, Ralph. Totally agree.