Socio-Economic Implications of the Semi-high speed Rail Project to Kerala State

The objective of the rail

First and foremost, no one including the initiators nor the promoters of this project, has no clue of the essence or utility of this project, except for the factor of reducing travel time between the north and south of Kerala. I am surprised by the way our state government is pushing such a project when other pressing issues and problems have not been addressed to date. Due to these factors, I even suspect the motive of such a massive project, which in our experience could be a money swindler for the people in power and authority. Spending over Rs.24 Crore for the survey and pilot project viability is certainly a wasteful exercise by the government. So before arising the question of implementing this rail project, let’s analyse certain hard facts and figures available to all of us. There has to be demand forecast study to be conducted and assessed on the viability of such a project, before going ahead, as the beneficiaries have other modes and options for travel already available. Our present and immediate future (5-7 years) socio-economic indices are indicating a concerning or bleak status on the same, in the wake of COVID imposed challenges and its aftermath.  

Cost of this rail project

The humungous cost required for implementing this 532 Km semi hi-speed rail is approximately Rs. 66,000 crores with a total of eleven stations. This limits the usability of this rail for the rest of the population itself is killing the basic objective of the same. The project is going to reduce the travel time between Kasaragod and Trivandrum to mere 4 hours against the present 11 hours of travel time through the existing rail route and line. Now the second question that arises here is that how time is important against the cost of travel?

With the huge cost involved for the proposed project, the viability of the same is certainly going to be a risky issue, along with the usability factor mentioned above. Even if the project does an average business of 200 crores per month, the shortest period for this rail to be profitable will take at least 3 decades or more. If noted, this kind of viability period is risky, under present world orders and ever-changing modes of transport systems and lifestyles. If the project has to be viable, then this project should generate at least Rs.500 crores of revenue per month, to break even in less than 15 years. I am not convinced about this aspect of the project. For that, I have the following factors analysed.

GDP of Kerala

Kerala State GDP was much higher than the Country’s overall GDP in 2019, as it stood at 6.8% and average per capita income was 36% higher than the national average. This was due to the international remittances from the middle east and other western countries where the state’s 10% population thrived all these years. Kerala topped with approximately Rs. 95,000 crores of inward remittances, which accounted for almost 19% of the total remittance to the country. Today with ailing oil prices, the middle east economy crumbling down in every country in GCC, leaving a large number of ex-pats with unemployment and hopelessness. By the end of 2020, more than 45% of the middle east migrants will come back permanently to settle back in their home state, without much idea on their livelihood. This is going to cause severe strain on the state’s economy and financial wellbeing. Government has no clue on how to rehabilitate these returning populations. Kerala has no industries to support these returning population and their livelihood will be stressed due to the lack of financial stability. So overall, the timing of this project looks to be impractical considering the above realities. Above all, the overall strain the country has in terms of keeping it safe from intruders and neighbouring countries could further make dents in people’s livelihood. Banks, today have a bleak future as the situation further worsens in terms of cash crunches.

Demographic & displacement of population

Kerala is one of the most densely populated states, the proposed rail project is going to displace over 6,50,000 people from their livelihood, which will be causing major issues and headaches for the

government. Now coming back to the demographics, Malappuram and northern Kerala tops in the list of ex-pat population, and with NRI’s returning from Gulf Countries, the overall viability of this rail project still drops down, due to affordability issues. It’s going to be a herculean task for the acquisition of land for this hi-speed rail. This will delay the project by at least 10 more years, as it’s not coming under any emergency or highly essential category. The project estimates 67,740 passengers to be utilizing this rail for their daily travel, for it to be viable financially is another figure which seems to be impractical, reviewing from the statistics of the present rail users on the existing line. The average number of monthly passengers plying through almost 60 stations and stops in the existing rail is approximately 1.1 crore, of which 47% account for short-distance travellers with season tickets and the rest of the population use it for long-distance inter-state journeys. With the state’s economy being under threat as of date, the proposed semi-hi-speed project will not attract even a quarter of the envisaged number of travellers.

As per the fancy figure estimated per month, this rail has to be used by 203,220 passengers/monthly, which totals to 2,438,640 passengers per year. This is an absurd figure to think for a normal human being as this figure is 71% of the total Kerala population has to use this. Let’s look at this from another angle too, lets lower this figure to say 50% of Kerala population and balance 21% we will assign for the foreign and other state tourists who visit the state and that 21% is coming to our state on leisure without much of stress on time. I am sure these two basic calculations have defeated the purpose of this project in total. So why waste, money and time on this rail?? Let’s further analyse a few more of the factors of relevance to this project.

Urban & Town Plan

One of the key motives of this project is the overall development of the areas through which the proposed railway passes is a lame excuse, as Kerala is already developed to the nook and corner from north to south of the state, except the districts of Wayanad and Idukki are underdeveloped and still lack the infrastructure to cater the population residing in these districts. Our state's density of population is one of the highest in the state with 859 per square kilometre. So, urbanization factor is going to be again for a few to be weighed against the cost displacing such a large population for this advantage is not advised. Well, if it's aimed from the tourism point of view, then existing railway lines are the best for them due to the locational proximity to the urban areas. Presume that the proposed hi-speed line will have stations located an average of 7 Km away from the existing stations, which is going to make the passengers rely on other modes of transport to reach there. This in turn increases the road traffic which is already at its 140% capacity and lacks width in most urban areas.

For the tourists and visitors, to reach these stations of proposed stations on the semi hi-speed will pose an inconvenience and will be forced to rely on supplementary modes of transport. Our road networks and urban planning are considered to be one of the poorest in the world.

Job opportunities

The rail project kicking ways to open more job opportunities is again another lame theory, as it will not give many opportunities even at the labour level during the construction stage, since the contracting companies are not going to rely on local laborers and will rope in laborers from neighbouring states or from far. So, the job opportunities projected are all going to be remaining as figures. On an argumentative analysis, let’s see the positive perceptive of this point, even if it offers job opportunities to migrant laborers, 45% of their earnings will be remitted back to their home states instead of spending to aid Kerala’s economy. Offering positions for engineering skills are the only option left on this project and with only 11 stations on this line, it is also not going to more than 3500 employees all put together. These analyses and figures do not correlate to the viability statistics projected. Well, one cannot spend Rs. 66,000 crores to make 3500 job seekers. Being a quasi-government project, that will open up the burden of pensions and other inequalities for the privileged.

Convenience Versus traveller’s affordability

As of now, “convenience and reduced travel time” are the most projected features or advantages of this proposed rail project to the public. Well, it's only 30% time will be needed to travel this 530 Km, which is quantified to 4 hours. Now the cost of this travel needs to be taken into account for this time saving, which is again spoken on the affordability of our population. The present express train fares are around 55 paise per kilometre for short-distance journeys in ordinary class and these fares will lower slab on higher distances. On the express, higher class such as A/C or Sleeper A/C will be 2.75 to 3.00 Re per kilometre. This class of passengers is only 15% of the existing travellers. Now coming to the case of fare to travel from Trivandrum to Ernakulam is Rs.100 on Express trains and Rs. 120 for superfast trains vis a vis a charge of Rs. 475 will not be received well by ordinary passengers just for saving extra time. Our society has yet to get conscious of effective time utilization and this attitude of ours takes decades to change.

More importantly with changing IT infrastructure and world orders, everything around us is changing faster than the speed of light. Most of our governments will move into e-governance, where large numbers will be losing their mundane clerical kind of job profiles and people visiting Trivandrum for governmental services are certainly going to decline by at least 40% shortly. With the advent of AI (Artificial Intelligence) and IoT (Internet of things) many of the governmental affairs could be completed within minutes sitting at one’s residence, were by eliminating the travel options. We also have forcefully learned to ‘work from home’ in the last four months, due to the advent of COVID19 and most of our hi-tech industries have moved into video calls and webinars, which have become the new codes of conducting businesses. The same will apply to the ministers, executives, and the people to solve their issues were by avoiding unnecessary travel between these districts. Kerala is already blessed with 4 international airports, of which 2 of them caters to the population of Northern part and one for central Kerala and last one for South Kerala and apart from these a fifth airport is under the dreams of the Government at Erumeli, Kottayam. With all these infrastructures in place, for time-conscious traveller has the option of switching their travel from rail to air. Now, if this is going to be portrayed as for medical purposes, then we are well equipped with air ambulances as transporting critically ill patients on hi-speed rail, post-COVID will be not going to be acceptable for the people.

Coming back to the next possibility is that to attract the foreign tourists with the pride of this option is going to be bleak henceforth, as the present COVID situation has restructured ourselves in every aspect of our life. Even after the invention of a potential vaccine for this pandemic, people will still carry the fear of further kinds of pandemics, which will again force them to continue the present lifestyle. Coming to the most important attitudinal issue of a typical Malayalee is to travel in his mode of transport, with his family at his convenience and joy. So, families resorting to travel in this type of an option for leisure can be almost ruled out, it will be viable for them to opt for own transport instead of spending huge amounts on this rail.

Financial Feasibility

From the above factors, I feel this project doesn’t fulfil the actual needs of any class, except the pride of having an iconic project, showcasing to the world. The feasibility of such a project with our recent experience has proved with KOCHI Metro Rail was a utopian error, which was done without proper market analysis or study. A well-engineered and executed project hasn’t fetched any revenue to sustain its operating cost and believed to running on huge losses, which had closed the other proposed similar projects to be implemented in Trivandrum & Kozhikode. Our urban planning and execution are done in a hasty manner, which still leaves most of our urban towns and cities flooded with waterlogging from the improper sewerage facilities, which needs prime focus before taking up any further projects which demand huge funds.

Other factors

Kerala state has to study developing the existing roads which could accommodate more vehicular population of the future. Our urban and rural areas need to have proper sewerage and waste management facilities. The best of our national highways has only 6 lanes in some short stretches and most of our highways are single carriageways with dangerous alignments and twirls, causing major accidents and loss of human lives.

Our roads have poor visibility and lack of lighting which makes it a dangerous feat to drive in the night, which needs to considered on highest priority.

Lack of sanitation facilities even today is a cause of concern of the state, even boasting of 100% literacy. Our civic sense as well as the sense of belongingness are very low compared to the world standards.

There are a large number of other pressing issues of serious concerns are there too like drinking & potable water supply to many rural and suburban areas.

Above all, we have not been able to run efficiently our state-owned road transport services profitable, in the last few decades with accumulating losses and poor maintenance of its fleet. We had circumvented the pressures of our trade unions and still running the services to accrue further losses.

State of Government owned Road Transport Corporation

Last, but not the least, a state-owned Road Transport Corporation has been gasping for its last breath for the many years due to the trade unionism and lack of responsibility of its employees. The accrued losses amount to few hundred crores. If we utilize a minuscule part of the proposed cost of the semi hi-speed railway project, we will be able to expand our present roadways, which can lessen the traffic of present.

Conclusion

The above factors undermine the requirement of such a large project, but if the government is determined to go forward with this ambitious plan, then the options one can suggest is to look for adding lines, parallel to the existing rail route which could save at least 30% cost of the proposed one.

The same proposal can be planned along the existing rail route extending two additional lines and modernizing 11 prime stations planned will certainly make the project viable in the long run. The land acquisition and other formalities can be much easier and simpler than, going in for an entirely new line and route.

‘’I hereby twist the famous lines of the character, Mark Antony of Shakespearian drama, Julius Caesar, I came to bury the idea of this new rail line, but to put forward the alternate proposal which will be a much more viable idea for implementation’’.