Social Media & Pay To Play, Part I

"The first rule of social media is that everything changes all the time. What won't change is the community's desire to network" - Kami Huyse

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I began my career on MySpace. Yes, MySpace. Remember Tom? He introduced himself personally to me when I signed up, and I felt right at home. However, the end result of this is not that I knew Tom, nor that I learned HTML from MySpace, nor that this led me to my eventual successes in marketing. The point here is the beginning of social media.

Before We Begin

Preemptive strike one: this is a tale about the new "pay-to-play" model of social media, but I did want to start with a bit of history.

Yes, it will get much more interesting momentarily, but first, hear me out.

When I began my career on MySpace, I had been a high school dropout for roughly two weeks. Personal problems overlapped my anxious nature, and because of this I was forced to drop out. In less than two weeks, I had learned HTML on my own in (you guessed it: the first official social media known to the public) MySpace. This led to a career in web and graphic design, where I found myself. Fifteen years later, I am here, writing about it.

Where This Is Headed

Now, MySpace was the beginning of something novel. It was a momentous equation: connect like-minded individuals with one-another to see how they clash. Facebook soon emerged in 2004, where Mark Zuckerberg took things to a new extreme.

This is called a "second mover company," if you have not heard the term before. It means that when we systematically start the initial trend, we are victimized by second-mover companies that eventually take what we created and "repurpose" or "redesign" it.

Much like The Lean Method (I recommend Eric Ries' book, it's quite a read), it was Facebook's launch in 2004 that led to a social media frenzy. Now, roughly twenty years later, we are beginning to see a disturbing trend falling upon us: "pay-to-play."

First, a bit of background.

If you want to jump ahead, look for the header that says "Onto The Point"

A Rough Example

Before we dive into social media and the main point of this discussion, I wanted to position something rather interesting. When mobile apps became commonplace during the iPhone craze of 2008 (I was a video game developer at the time with New Breed Games, LLC, which still exists today), games and apps were free to play. There were no in-app purchases; there was no direct correlation between "pay-to-play."

In fact, when apps became commonplace, there were no in-app sales. You would pay $0.99 for an app or a game, and you were set. Roughly twenty years later, in-app purchases (buying coins, buying points, buying items) dominates the market. It is much like Pareto's Law, i.e. the 20/80 rule. 20 percent of all apps and mobile games dominate 80 percent of the app and game market. Now, in-app purchases are worth roughly $110 billion in 2021-2022 within the first and second quarter, showing us that this trend is not going anywhere.

Onto The Point

Like I said, this background mechanism has a purpose, and that purpose is simple, and it is the main point of this 90 Day Content Challenge post: pay-to-play has crossed over the boundaries of not only apps, but also social media!

"This is where they would paint you with big eyes and?bubbles?of confusion?above your head" - Quote From The Movie "Glass"

So, what am I getting at here? Simple: social media, just like mobile games, is now a pay-to-play model. I did a bit of an experiment: I started playing around with Facebook Ads and Twitter Ads. After waiting haphazardously for followers and Likes, I soon began to do my research, and the research is clear: there is no free organic traffic available to us.

Advertising & Pay To Play

As stated, this all had a point. Though we can compare social media ads (Facebook Ads, Twitter Ads, etc.) with pay-to-play models of mobile games, there is a drastic difference in functionality. When paying for coins on a mobile game, you are paying simply to facilitate a winning streak. You are indulging in Pareto's Law: 20 percent of all apps and mobile games own 80 percent of the income bracket. However, when doing so with pay-to-play models in advertising...well, something about that just seems wrong, don't you think?

Organic traffic (i.e. the number of people who see your post without a paid mechanism behind it) no longer exists. The average organic post on Facebook, as an example, is estimated to reach only 3-5 percent of those who follow your page!

This is in accordance with (you guessed it) in-app purchases, and I hate to say it, but that scares the crud out of me. I have put some time into ads on both Facebook and Twitter. I did a bit of an experiment: I put $100 into Facebook Ads, posted organically, and waited. Of course, it was clear that ads (promoted tweets, promoted posts, etc.) dominated.

Why This Is Happening

Simple: in 2018 there was a shift in social media.

It became commonplace to reach thousands of your followers and subscribers without having to pay for an ad. But as machine learning crept forward, it became clear to these social media giants that they could make a lot more off of this than just stocks and equity. Rather, they began to incorporate pay-to-play models for our posts.

And I am sorry, but that is upsetting...

Now, take a moment and step back, punch yourself in the head for five minutes, and then return to this sentence. Ready? Go. Done? Good. The fact is, organic reach is impossible.

When Facebook Ads (AKA Meta, as Facebook renamed themselves on a corporate level!) began charging for pay-to-play ads, between 2018 and 2021, the increase in ad spend doubled, now officially estimated at $114.93 billion in USD.

This Is Not Funny!

But it makes sense. Where does social media income develop? Once upon a time, social media was an open source platform for posting. Facebook was meant to keep friends and family connected (which, suffice to say, it still does...just not for businesses); Twitter was meant to facilitate a fun and tech-savvy way to reach followers; TikTok was meant to over-stimulate the occipital lobe where people dance and hearts envelop the screen (you may notice I bash on TikTok a lot, and the reason why is simple: I hate that platform...)

…But now, Facebook and Twitter (and LinkedIn, and TikTok, and Instagram...) have become pay-to-play models, focalizing less on stocks and shares and more on paid ads.

Take a moment to think about your favorite social media platform. Then, do yourself a favor should you have a Twitter Business or Facebook Page account: post organically (i.e. do not boost it; do not advertise it...just post it, as optimized as it can possibly be), and wait.

During that same week, post the same thing, alter the image or video (or headline, etc.). Now, set up the advertised post or "tweet" with $5 a day in Facebook Ads for around 4 days (the minimum amount of time you can boost a post). Wait a week, and go back.

Which one had more engagement?

The Question Is Not...

The question is not: "why is this happening?" because we already know the answer to that (monetary gain in the pockets of greedy individuals). Rather, the question is simple, and really, it is not too much of a question but more so of an inquiry one can ask themselves: is it worth it? Well, the thing is, we do not have much of a choice.

Facebook has 2.9 billion users globally.

In accordance with this experiment, I posted organically and provisioned the above experiment. The organic post reached around 2-3 percent of my audience (i.e. for every 100 users, I received 2-3 people who merely saw the post, not engaged with it), whereas a $5-a-day boosted advertisement during the same period, with the same content, the same image, and the same...well, the same everything, and what do you think happened?

You Already Know The Answer

The boosted post (i.e. $10-15 for four days) received 20 engagements. The organic one? Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Now, you may ask quietly to yourself this dark and weary Monday morning if organic reach is dead, and the new pay-to-play model has crossed over from in-app purchases to social media. If this is the question you are asking, allow the following research to point you in the right direction, as I already did my homework:

• For every 100 users, an organic post will only appear in 3-5 of their feeds
• For every boosted post, Facebook or Twitter will reveal around 10x that
• For every ad, your follower count will cost around $1.31 to develop

Source.

Pay-to-play has crossed over the barriers of games to social media.

When This Began

It all started in 2018 when Facebook changed its algorithm. The algorithm is unknown, undiscovered, and probably confusing even those who work at the company itself. However, we know a few things. First, videos draw in 300x more engagement than plain-text posts; it favors videos. Second...well, there is no "second."

The fact is, this algorithm change was a function of revenue. Thinking back to 2018, there is no real way to determine what triggered this massive undertaking. I even did my research (see here). Essentially, nothing to this date can determine the change in this course of events, but the results were mind-blowing.

The amount of "ad spend" on Facebook and Twitter increased from $31.27 billion to $58.11 billion between 2019 and 2022 (Source). That is pretty huge, and despite the varying figures (i.e. Statista and the above source link show two entirely contrasting ad revenue), we can safely say that as social media users grow, and as technology spreads, and as an upcoming recessive period increases as gas prices soar, we have nothing we can do about this.

But Do Not Worry!

Now, think about this before jumping to conclusions: if you have, say, $5 a day to promote a page for followers, you are spending roughly $150 a month on a single ad.

Averaging a cost of around $1-2 per Facebook or Twitter "Like" or "Follow," it is possible that with $5 a day, you can receive around 125 new "Followers" a month.

Engagement costs are lower, where one pays to increase the amount of engagement of a post or a tweet (roughly never capping higher than $0.30 per result).

So, though this trend may be frightening, albeit, unfair, we have to understand that if we were in the same shoes as Facebook or Twitter, we would more than likely take advantage of the system. As businesses grow, and as Pareto's Law becomes uncovered beneath a mountain of social proof, we are at a turning point in history.

Social Proof

When we need social proof (i.e. the ability to see your social media page as "active," as without paid ads or boosted/promoted posts, you may loose clout), we can promote and boost every post we create, and we will receive a rapid increase in the amount of activity on social media. However, if we are doing this solely for social proof, are we getting our money's worth? The short answer is: we do not have much of a choice.

Articles Cap At 2,100 Words...

Because resources say the average reader prefers 2,100-2,400 words per blog or article post (yes, I am a Content Marketer, get used to it), I will be finishing this discussion tomorrow. On Tuesday, June 7th, 2022 (tomorrow, at least at present) I will finish this post.

For your reading pleasures, I will also be pouring money I do not have into an experiment: I will put $5 a day into boosted and promoted posts, as well as $5 a day for followers and Page "Likes," and we will see what the experiment progresses as.

How much more "reach" will I receive when I boost or promote a post or tweet in comparison to the same post (no variables changed) if I pay? I do not have the money you may think I have, and I have seen this study done before, but stay updated in this newsletter, subscribe, and I will see you in a later post to discuss my findings.

This will be "boosted" on Facebook and "promoted" on Twitter come 8am EST, so hopefully tomorrow I have the same amount of energy as I do today, allowing us to move in a circular whirlwind of experimentation. I also encourage you to do the same, and I will see you all tomorrow (or whenever I get around to this as the results pour in!)

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