Social Media Election Data

Traditional news media and social media communication channels appear to be following the usual presidential election cycle. Truescope media monitoring data show that Donald Trump's GOP wins in Iowa and New Hampshire fit a historic horse race media narrative that he is well on the way to winning the nomination -- despite leading 32 to 17 in the very early delegate count over Nikki Haley. "In 2024, there are an estimated 2,429 delegates: 2,325 pledged delegates and 104 unpledged delegates."

The focus on who is in front of the pack and who wins these early primary elections denigrates the democratic process, but social media engagement has failed to open it. Candidates must succeed early and raise money to keep going. Trump or Haley needs 1,215 delegates to win on a first ballot at the Milwaukee convention in mid-July.

"No one sat down one day and said Iowa must go first, by God, and then New Hampshire,... That's a historical accident." Professor David Karol (2016).

Trump entered the race as a former incumbent with legal troubles that will play out throughout the long election process. With Ron DeSantis (9 delegrates) and Vivek Ramaswamy (3 delegates) already out of the race, Haley is left to soon find wedge issues that might keep her in the race. Media and candidate agenda-setting appear to drive social media conversation. Possible wedge issues to watch in the next few weeks include:

• A national abortion ban proposal that is likely to play out during the general election with Joe Biden
• Capital punishment and the Alabama nitrogen gas execution
• The $34 trillion national debt and general economic issues
• Age and the "mental fitness" of Trump and Biden

Haley is 52 and called for "mental competency" tests for older candidates. Trump dominated the early share of voice (SoV) data, and he went on to collect nearly twice the number of the first two batches of state delegates.

The exits of DeSantis and Ramaswamy accounted for a significant amount of media and social media attention. This forces Haley to be sharply focused in her Trump attacks.

The crucial next few weeks of the campaign, though, happen as the Kansas City Chiefs return to the Super Bowl. Travis Kelce and mega-star Taylor Swift are likely to capture a huge share of social media conversation over the next few weeks. Kelce caught 11 passes on Sunday, and then received the highly-shared post-game hugs and kiss photos. Swift's likely Super Bowl appearance is driving media speculation about the promoted celebrity romance. "If Swift finishes her Tokyo show at about 11 p.m. local time, around 6 a.m. in Las Vegas, she can fly back to the U.S. in about 13 hours and make it in time before the game kicks off, barring any travel issues." Tom Jones and Rick Edmonds at Poynter noted that, "It’s already been proven that Swift’s attendance at games has lifted TV ratings."

There is only so much media oxygen in competition for public attention. News events, of course, are an unpredictable variable that could change the tone of upcoming state elections. For now, Haley faces an uphill battle for media coverage, social media attention, election wins and campaign funding.

UNO Peter Kiewit Distinguished Professor Jeremy Harris Lipschultz is an author and Truescope Academic Ambassador in 2024.