The social energy transition

Does the technological energy transition need an inclusive social acceptance to be successful in meeting the Paris Agreement goals in The Netherlands?

Energy Delta Institute, Executive Program Energy Transition and Innovation

Nov 2020 M. (Michiel) Sintenie Innovation Manager Europe

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1. Introduction

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“Climate change is too complicated for us. It does not mean that climate change cannot be solved technologically, but that it is difficult, if not impossible, for the human brain to deal with it.” Prof. Marshall [1]

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The energy transition is moving slowly and if you ask the experts, to slow. On the upstream side of the value chain a lot is happening today. Infrastructures change, the way of production is changing. The impact of these changes is big for the power side of the energy transition.

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On the downstream side of the value chain, you see the rise of prosperous consumers and sustainably driven consumers become prosumers and switch to a different fuel for transportation. Housing associations and companies are forced to improve their buildings for more sustainable solutions. Building decisions/codes are becoming increasingly sustainable due to government regulations [2].

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What makes the energy transition slow and what effect is there from the social energy transition on the pace of the transition? We will have a look at the successful transitions of the past and what can we learn in the energy transition. Are facts or emotions the driver behind the transition?

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The issue addressed in this essay is the hypothesis of an underestimation of the social element of the energy transition. The issue addressed in this essay will be inclusiveness in the energy transition, the perceived loss aversions and the roadmap towards a Fossil Free Future.

2. Aims of this essay

In the this essay I want to discuss the importance of social inclusion in the energy transition to be successful in reaching the Paris Agreement.

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·?????? It will discuss the anthropology and human mind set of shifting behaviour in comparable transitions.

·?????? It will describe the difference between the climate crisis in comparison with Covid-19 crisis.

·?????? It will discuss the needed social element for the transition despite that there is a lot already possible on the technological side of the energy transition, production and currently in R&D phase.

·?????? It will discuss the social element of the energy transition is as important as the technological one. The citizens' need for a reliable, affordable, comfortable, inclusive and sustainable energy system.

·?????? It will describe the need of knowledge for the social transition is needed. This will lead to a conclusion of what is needed in the energy transition to be as inclusive as possible and who needs to be involved to move forward.

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3. Conceptual framework

·?????? What was a transition that was implemented country wide?

·?????? What were the biggest failures and why???

·?????? What are the pain points that influence our behavior?

·?????? Who needs to be present in the ecosystem to reach the tipping point for the transition?

·?????? What are the core drivers to scale the social transition?

·?????? Why is the energy transition moving slow despite the proof points that are provided by researchers and the technology that is already available?

·?????? What can we learn from the CovID-19 health crisis to manage the social transition of the “health” crisis on energy transition?

·?????? What is needed to do this social transition to make it frictionless, easy and intuitive?

·?????? What is the impact on comfort, money and time in this social transition?

·?????? What ecosystem do we need for the social energy transition?

·?????? What are the perceived loss aversions?

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4. Transition and disruption in other industriesnbsp;

4.1. Transition in which the established order became redundant

One of the most successful transitions in the past has been the switch to the Internet. Communication became extremely cheaper with the Internet due to scalability. The killer proposition that made citizens increasingly use the internet was e-mail. This form of communication was a much more efficient and cheaper solution to be able to communicate with each other over a long distance compared to all other solutions that were available. Email made the Internet and the use of the World Wide Web cheaper and more efficient to use. Providers such as Yahoo, AOL and other email providers saw an opportunity to offer this "for free" and set up a completely new business model around data.

The transition that has taken place in the music industry has also partly made existing parties redundant, whereby it became increasingly cheaper and the classical music carriers were replaced by a digital infrastructure. Digitization created a new opportunity. A combination of the transition from offline to online with the Internet and the ability to download and stream large files also made the music industry a target for disruptive innovation. The transition in the music industry was first challenged by major parties but it was insurmountable.

Figure 1: IFPI Global Recorded Music Industry Revenues 2001-2019 [3] ?

This transition from the physical music carrier to almost fully online and having the complete music library of the entire world in your phone has taken a number of years. The main reason it is now so successful is that it is easy for citizens to use, it is affordable for the consumer, and it has direct access for everyone, so inclusive.

Unsuccessful transitions for established order in the music industry. They have also tried to transform within the music industry. They continued to build on old thoughts so that they did not see the disruption / transformation coming. By thinking within the beaten path, you simply see that a transition to digital, such as in the music industry, was very difficult for the established order.

4.2. Transition in which the established order took the initiative

An example where traditional market players have successfully made a transition in the Netherlands is the consumer side of the banks. The implementation of iDeal[4] has made the Netherlands a frontrunner in online payment and at the beginning, this transition also gave the Netherlands a head start in eCommerce. This has also set-in motion the transition from physical shopping to online shopping. You can see that online shopping has become a lot easier, cheaper and intuitive.

All in all, you can say that if a transition is cheaper, easier and reliable, then it will continue.

4.3. Conclusion of transitions in other industries.

The mistake often made in transitions is short, fast, efficient adjustments to the current system or model. The so-called exploitation. This is very valuable in the short term, but not the most efficient in the long term and sometimes even a problematic “sunken cost”. How do we go from exploitation to exploration? This requires other skill sets. How do we turn into transitions?

5. Status quo of the energy transition

In the energy transition you see that initiatives in some areas are taken by the established order and in other areas by new parties. Easier, cheaper and reliability of new initiatives are therefore key in a transition.

5.1. Photovoltaics panels as silver bullet

Let's look at photovoltaics panels for example. Photovoltaics panels cost price has dropped 82% in the past 9 years and becomes profitable for citizens worldwide.

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??Figure 2: Renewable power technologies: Cost decreases since 2010 [5]

And if you look at total cost for photovoltaics panels including installation and inverter in The Netherlands, price per watt peak is also dropping for Dutch citizens. It becomes cheaper throughout the years.

?Figure 3: Average price development of photovoltaics panels over the past 10 years [6] ?

It is also being made easier and more inclusive by, for example, rental propositions. Where the photovoltaics panels are placed on the roof and the homeowner will earn money from day one. Taking photovoltaics panels is a clear and simple choice when you consider costs.

Photovoltaics panels are a silver bullet in the energy transition but is not the “killer proposition”. It creates employment, as shown in figure 4, an impulse for the economy, partly subsidized and makes the energy transition visible to citizens.

Figure 4: More jobs in renewable energy and energy saving. [7]

With new innovations and new products on the market like photovoltaics panels comes new complex challenges like congestion management and moving from a centrally steered and generated energy, which is a kind of one-way energy flow, to a decentralized, distributed model of energy, in short, a bidirectional energy flow system. The energy transition and its solutions are part of the Wicked Problem [8].

Figure 5: Wicked problem. [8]

5.2. The resistance of the energy transition in the social context

The energy transition is not only about the literal energy transition, but it goes much deeper into the behavior of citizens. Isolation is of course an easy step on a social level. Your home will be more pleasant and comfortable, and the costs of the energy bill will go down. Clear choice. But there are also choices that have an impact on citizens' daily routines. The way in which cooking is done on gas that will change to induction or other forms. To cite an anecdote as an example: “How do I chop his favorite gravy with his meatball for my Gerrit when I switch from gas to induction? I know exactly how high the gas needs to be to make the best gravy. " These are the questions that live in society.

In addition, there is much talk in the media about the installation of windmills and photovoltaics panels, local politics and the opponents of this [9].?

This quote of “Will the energy transition still be successful, or is everything now taboo?[10]” explains the conflict:

“It is better for us and the planet to reduce or even stop the use of coal, gas and oil. (…) Something has to be added. Then problems arise:

More wind energy? There is a lot of opposition to this, for example because of the nuisance, alleged health problems and landscape pollution. In some parts of the country, resistance was even accompanied by the threat of violence.

Photovoltaics panels in the field? Resistance! From both environmental organizations and farmers' organizations.

Nuclear energy? In The Hague politics hardly plays a role in the discussion, a taboo for many people, even though the CO2 emissions are extremely low.

What about biomass? That discussion has now become completely polarized. Nobody disputes that there are excesses, but there is no room for nuances. Biomass now seems to have been shot down by national politics, while the cabinet considered it essential for the success of the Climate Agreement.

CCS, the underground storage of CO2? No, the environmental movement does not want that.

Geothermal energy? Brrr, that's drilling in the earth, right? No that is too dangerous. ”

There is a major lobby against the energy transition. So, on a social level, a lot of uncertainty is also spread. Not only locally in the Netherlands, but also support for the fossil fuel industry in America, for example. Saying goodbye to existing processes and existing earnings model are scary, fearful and investments for the future are not yet clear, which makes the transition very slow. FUD: Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. As US President Dwight D. Eisenhower [11] once said:

"I have two kinds of problems, the urgent and the important. The urgent are not important, and the important are never urgent."

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5.3. The “creators” in the energy transition

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So, coming back on the question: How do we turn into transitions? The research of Nielsen in 2006 describes 3 type of participants: 1% of heavy contributors; 9% of intermittent contributors and 90% lurkers.[12] Based on this insight and the research of Geels on Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways [13], Ruurd Priesters created a model for transformation. [14] You need a few cross thinkers / green orbs to change, these are the 1% (creators) who don't wait for others to do something.

Figure 6: Model for transformation. [14]

These green spheres started the energy transition in the 90s by being the first to install photovoltaics panels on roofs and farmers installing windmills on their land.

Later in time we also saw “green spheres” start collaborating in the Netherlands. Look at Urgenda, for example, a contraction of Urgent Agenda, which was founded in 2007 by Prof.dr.ir . Jan Rotmans from DRIFT and Marjan Minnesma from the Erasmus University Rotterdam.

To support these people in this transition you need intermittent contributors (9%) (followers). These are people who need a push to transform. And finally, the 90% of the other people (lurkers) who also slowly change along with them, these are people who are too busy with other things. In the energy transition you see that green spheres have already done their job. The intermittent contributors have started to move in recent years.

6. Climate crisis vs Covid-19 crisis

6.1. Acceptance of the climate problem such as Covid-19 acceptance of health problem

The energy transition is currently being deployed on technological developments. Rich citizens have access to participate in this technological transition. Access to insulation, photovoltaics panels, heat pumps and electric transport is accessible to the wealthy citizen. In addition to the financial possibilities, you also see over 700 local initiatives among this target group. This is mainly due to knowledge and connections in the network that they have. Because the energy system has been socialized and the wealthy citizen has access to make his or her living environment more sustainable, a skewed distribution arises.

Local initiatives must scale. The 54 solutions that Urgenda offer to reduce CO2 are available [15]. Concrete solutions for the energy transition needed to achieve the Paris goals. There is a lot of technology out there, but why is it moving too slowly?

6.2. Difference between Covid-19 crisis and climate crisis

Why can we take immediate action worldwide in the COVID-19 crisis and why are the goals of the Paris climate agreement [16] to combat the climate crisis stretched long-term in the eyes of the citizen.

Covid-19 approach in media.

If you compare the climate crisis with the Covid-19 crisis, you see a number of different things. The Covid-19 crisis was an urgent problem that required immediate response worldwide. Citizens see up close what the effect is on their perception of the world. Besides being close and an acute problem, it also has a direct effect on health and healthcare. COVID-19 is an unscheduled problem, whereby climate change and the consequences of health in the Netherlands are factored in and more predictable. By the rules [17] that the government has set on COVID-19 and you do not stick to it and you can become infected, you will immediately see the result. With COVID-19 you are in control of your health safety and you also have the opportunity to protect yourself against it. The action really lies with the citizen themselves. Clear rules that are translated worldwide into country-specific or regional rules. This is partly thanks to a strong government policy and on the other hand a very strong push from the media. At the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, there was a discussion in the national media about the COVID-19 crisis and what measures are needed to deal with this. Both specialists and ordinary citizens were given airtime. This created transparency about the effect of this epidemic, not only on health care, but also the economy and society.

Covid-19 crisis also has the direct consequence that if you do not follow the rules, the chance that it will have an impact on your health is very high, not only for yourself, but also for the people in your own surroundings or social network, such as elderly to the weak in society.

Climate crisis approach in media. Compare this with the climate crisis. The Western world is little affected by the consequences of the climate crisis. During the documentary “Code Rood” [18], the first effects of climate change in the Netherlands are portrayed. Among other things is mentioned as an example: salinization of the soil, the water level in the future and the Elfstedentocht, where this is a direct link in the perception and emotion of the citizen.

If you look at other countries you see increasing floods [19], smog and extreme heated days. These slow changes are not yet perceptible to ordinary citizens in the Netherland as described in the journalistic article in the NRC entitled: if it is so acute why we do nothing [20].

To give an answer to this and it was already quoted at the start of this essay, we have to look at the book of George Marshall Don’t Even Think About It: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Ignore Climate Change (2014) [1].

Quote: “According to Marshall, people are on the move for obvious, visible problems with direct consequences for their lives, a simple cause and an identifiable culprit. Climate change is the opposite in everything. It is an unclear problem, it is extremely slow and largely invisible, it has complex causes, and because we are all part of it, there is no clear enemy. At the same time, climate change, especially in rich countries, will hardly affect daily life for the time being “

The problem is far away. Even if you look that we urgently need something for this, it is not felt that way. It is a slow transition that we are in that involves a lot of money and / or costs. Also, the consequences of the climate action, if we take action now on this problem, this will not be seen directly as a result for the overall climate around the world. Solutions have an indirect effect. With these solutions we are not only concerned with protecting ourselves and future generations, but above all protecting “the other” and this also makes it a very big problem. As a Westerner, why should you worry about the floods in a third world country? A problem in a third world country is not important for a citizen in the Netherlands, if he just can carry his own weight every month and take care of his or her own family. Selfishness is a very important factor here. On the other hand, a parallel universe is emerging. As Professor Norgaard describes: Climate change is common knowledge and simultaneously unimaginable. [21].

And the most important thing is that it is not about saving lives, but the survival of our race. On the other hand, there are high costs involved in what one has to do. Why should we do it in the Netherlands if others don't? Here is a chicken and egg discussion of if they move, we will also move. In addition, economic importance is more important than the survival of humanity. Quote “These politicians share similar views about climate science, and they all have an acute sense that climate policies would damage their national economies “[22]

7. Moving forward

7.1. The Netherlands is certainly not the goody two-shoes

If you look at the initiatives and technological advancements to control climate change, a lot is already being done. Technologically a lot is possible, but there are costs involved. As an example, look at the 54 solutions that Urgenda proposed and presented to the government. The investments required to achieve the long-term objectives are often at odds with investments that have already been made in the fossil economy, which means that these must be regarded as “sunken costs” and are we as a society prepared to make this sacrifice? At this point, the problem is also being pushed out. Why should we as the Netherlands be the best boy in class? From figures it turns out that the Netherlands is the goody two shoes when it comes to sustainability. How is this possible?

Figure 7: Share of energy from renewable sources, 2018. [23]

7.2. Fossil and short term economic consequences

The energy transition plays a crucial role in climate change. On the other hand, the fossil industry is still exploiting the current business model [24] . Investing in fossil-free production and fossil-free industry and sustainability is necessary to advance this energy transition. It offers enormous opportunities for the economy to grow further to create new jobs and create new value.

This business case is extremely difficult. Because of the question: are you going for short-term profit or are you going for a deep investment in the future? This is the discussion that comes up every time. In addition, we are dealing with a great ignorance among citizens in the Netherlands with regard to energy transition. Are we going to fight against the climate deniers that the scientists all contradict and who probably suffer from the Dunning and Kruger effect [25] or will we support the pioneers and the current early majority [26] are those green spheres, as described in the report by Ruurd Priester [see 5.3]? The creators, or as in Prof. Jan Rotmans [27] words “the cross-thinkers”, we need to take this energy transition forward. Focusing on the people who are moving forward [creators] instead of people who are waiting for something to happen [lurkers]. And link the followers to these creators. In this way we can make great strides. Or to quote Minnesma “You can get there with many small steps”.

In addition, we are dealing with a fair distribution, inclusive participation. The energy transition is not a technical transition, it is not a social transition, it is a combination of various effects such as economic, technology, social, environment, aesthetics and access to knowledge. What we have learned from the Covid-19 crisis is that social pressure, fear and clear rules work very well to involve people in the responsibility they bear towards others.

How do we change that one small cake that we now divide in the fossil landscape into a very large piece of a much larger cake in that energy transition? To look at the behavior of citizens and what is important, we see the following. People find it important to spend as little money as possible on things that are not relevant to them and to spend as little time as possible on things that they do not consider important. Energy is a commodity and so little or no time is spent on it.

7.3. Urgent need for ecosystem thinking

An innovation ecosystem is needed in which as many different concepts, ideas and social aspects as possible can be included in the energy transition, and especially the social energy transition. Technologically, a lot is already possible, as already mentioned, but on a social level the challenge of the energy transition lies in the area of ease, frictionless and intuitive, so that the right initiatives are taken at the right time.

Knowledge is needed for this. Nowadays, reasoning is mainly based on technology and not and not from social level and behavior. Why is that not happening now or why is it not so well known at the moment? With the pandemic we really see a completely different movement and that is mainly the social area that is leading the way. In COVID-19 the blockade was health care in the hospitals, the number of beds and the IC capacity [28].

How can the implementation of the innovation in the energy transition be accepted on a social level? How do we link the triple helix [29] and the trias energetica [30] to be able to nudge social behavior, as happened with all social media and the political choices in America four years ago [31]?

Where can we learn the lessons from anthropology? How does a change's phase work in humans? What are the pain points that cause behavior to change? Who needs to be in the innovation ecosystem to reach the tipping point? What are the drivers for scaling the energy transition? If you look at the development of the internet, for example, a killer proposition was needed, and this was e-mail. In the mobile phone revolution, WhatsApp and Facebook were the killer propositions. Which killer proposition do we need to get this social energy transition moving? Why is the energy transition so slow despite the proof points on technology already being delivered? I refer again to the 54 initiatives presented by Urgenda. How do we make the energy transition an addiction? In the documentary The social dilemma [32] in which algorithms create an addiction based on research of the human brain. How are we going to keep the energy system of the future affordable, reliable and inclusive?

Of course, with a sustainable character. A number of Ecosystems are needed for this. A change system in the form of decision makers who can implement changes in the system. Furthermore, an ecosystem of people who understand the technology behind it very well and an ecosystem of social knowledge that can be used to examine how citizens can participate in the inclusive energy transition that is being pursued.

“You cannot change the system unless you transform consciousness”

This is what Professor Otto Scharmer was telling in his book theory U [33]

Figure 8: Theory U. [34]

In order to change the system, we need to raise consciousness at the citizen level. So, based on previous assumptions looking at the Covid-19 virus for example. We have to move from an ego system to an eco-system. This all has to do with money, power and earnings from fossil industries or climate demolishing products. With small steps we will come far but we need a change in the ecosystem to really move forward in the energy transition socially.

9. Conclusion

We can learn a lot from the approach of Covid-19. Involve people from different backgrounds in the discussion. Understand the FUD and economic consequences. To make an emotional connection, there is a need for a clear roadmap. Climate change is a huge problem that one does not understand. But to make it transparent on the small steps or building blocks, humans are able to move forward in the energy transition.

The media have a key role in flatten the curve during Covid-19 and need to play a big role in flatten the climate curve. The move to an inclusive social/technological energy transition comes with small understandable step. The road map must have concrete steps.

Phase 1 (1% creators) enable change.

Step one: ??????????????? Create an ecosystem of green spheres (creators) that are open for change in the energy system.

Step two: ?????????????? Add knowledge to the ecosystem to empower ambition and deflect concerns.

Phase 2 (9% followers) create transparency.

Step three:????????????? Create an overview of all initiatives and give a stage to this.

Step four: ????????????? Create an energy transition dashboard for The Netherlands like the corona dashboard. [28]

Step five: ??????????????? Set KPI’s and create transparency on the energy transition.

Step six: ???????????????? Spread the word on silver bullets. Use media to create the emotional connection with the citizens.

Step seven: ??????????? Create new frameworks that will enable new business models and increase employment opportunities.

Phase 3 (90% lurkers) monetize on impact and solutions.

Step eight: ???????????? Capitalize on new business models and scale all working solutions.

Step nine:?????????????? Make a hyper personal roadmap for households to show their impact on climate change compared to others to nudge and create social pressure to do good for climate.

With this, the social energy transition will become inclusive, intuitive and easy to use for a citizen.

If people understand the effect of their actions on short term and the impact on long term, we all can become fossil free within one generation.

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Bibliography

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