The Social Care Sector: Winner of the Coming Crisis?

The coming crisis in the UK may result in many companies collapsing and a significant increase in unemployment. #SocialCare is one sector that could benefit from this situation, as the labour market will only move towards it.?

With an ageing population and an increase in chronic health conditions, the demand for domiciliary care services has been steadily rising in the UK. Domiciliary care is a key part of the social care sector and this form of care has become increasingly popular in recent years, as people have become more interested in maintaining their independence while receiving the support they need.?

In the last 10 years, the industry has grown by ￡1.5 bn, in terms of the revenue it generates. Over the next 5 years, the revenue is expected to further increase ?? at a compound annual rate of 3% to ￡6.3 bn.?

According to the Census , 11 mln people in England and Wales were aged 65 years and over in 2021, up from 9 mln in 2011 (20% increase in 10 years). Moreover, the number of people aged 90 years and over increased by 100,000 over the same period. Members of the baby boomer generation are likely to continue to inflate the size of this age cohort, particularly as medical advances result in more people living beyond the age of 85 when many people require care. Family Resources Survey reported that 15 mln people were living with a disability in 2021, an increase of 3 mln since 2011 (25% increase in 10 years), further indicating growing industry demand.

However, at the same time, the industry has been facing a significant challenge due to a shortage of skilled care workers. The UK has been experiencing a chronic shortage of care workers, with the highest, close to 30% staff turnover rate of all sectors. This has, in some places, resulted in a lack of continuity in care and compromised the quality of care provided to service users.

One of the main reasons is the low pay offered. Many care workers earn minimum wage or just above, which makes it difficult for them to make ends meet. This low pay also means that the sector struggles to attract new talent, which perpetuates the problem.

Another issue is the poor working conditions experienced by care workers. Many of them are required to work long hours, often on a zero-hour contract basis, making it difficult for them to plan their lives or secure a stable income. This instability and uncertainty also lead to stress and burnout, compounding the high turnover rates in the sector.

The #covid19 pandemic has also exacerbated the problem of labour shortages in the sector. Many care workers were forced to take time off work due to illness or self-isolation, while others left the sector entirely due to concerns about their safety. This has led to a further decrease in the number of available care workers, making it even more difficult for care providers to meet the increasing demand for their services.

According to the Department of Health and Social Care , more than 40,000 social workers left the sector between June 2021 and January 2022, while the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services estimated that 286,000 hours of home care could not be delivered over the three months through April 2021. By the end of October 2021, that number stood at more than 1.5 mln hours.?

The coming crisis could offer a solution to this problem. With a number of people losing their jobs, there could be a significant pool of workers available to move into domiciliary care. The industry could benefit from a fresh influx of workers who have transferable skills from their previous jobs and who are looking for a new career path.

Furthermore, the government has recognised the importance of the domiciliary care industry and, since covid started, it has been steadily announcing additional funding to support the sector. In the Autumn Statement 2022, the UK government said it would make available up to ￡2.8 billion in 2023/24 and ￡4.7 billion in 2024/25 to help support adult social care and hospital discharge.

The additional funding, and growing market, combined with the potential for a larger pool of skilled workers, could help to alleviate the staffing crisis in the domiciliary care sector. This, in turn, could result in an improvement in the quality of care provided to patients and a reduction in the burden on the NHS .

Moreover, the #domiciliarycare industry benefits from increased public awareness and appreciation of the importance of care workers during the pandemic. The covid crisis has highlighted the crucial role that care workers play in providing support to vulnerable individuals, and this could lead to increased public support for the industry and greater recognition for the valuable work that care workers do.

In conclusion, while the coming crisis may have a significant impact on the UK economy, the domiciliary care industry could certainly benefit from the situation.?

Marek Niedzwiedz