?? Soaring into the Future - A Farewell Edition Unveiling 10 Predictions for Advanced Air Mobility ????

----- Update April 09 -----

Hey everyone! ??

I'm absolutely thrilled by the incredible response to the final edition of AeroTechPulse! Your overwhelming support and enthusiasm have truly touched me, and I can't thank you enough. ??

In light of your amazing feedback, I've decided to give AeroTechPulse a fresh start and take it to new heights! ?? I'm excited to announce that I've been working on a brand new website, www.aerotechpulse.com, where I'll continue to explore the latest developments in the aerospace and aviation industries.

Stay tuned for the AeroTechPulse revival in the coming months! I'll dive deeper into the disruptive forces shaping our industry, expand the scope beyond advanced air mobility, and I'm eager to share more insights, predictions, and discussions with you all.

I want to express my sincere gratitude for your support and encouragement. Together, let's make AeroTechPulse an even better platform for our passionate community of industry enthusiasts!

Visit and sign up at www.aerotechpulse.com! ??

See you all soon

Kolin

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Dear AeroTechPulse Subscribers, ????

I hope this newsletter finds you in good health and that you are "always aiming for the best". Today's edition is a special one, as it marks the final flight of Kolin's AeroTechPulse, at least for the time being. ????

Over the past months, I've been on a personal journey that led me to reflect on life and re-evaluate my priorities. This introspection has helped me realize that it's time to take a break from the newsletter and shift priorities. ????

I'm incredibly grateful to all 1,000+ of you who have joined me on this journey, and I'm proud of the community we've built together. Your support, enthusiasm, and engagement have been the fuel that kept this newsletter aka me soaring through the skies of innovation. ????

As we prepare to land this final edition, let's take a moment to reflect on some of the highlights together:

?? Diving into the business case for urban air mobility ????

?? Evaluating the economics of air taxi services ????

?? Transitioning from full electric to hybrid aircraft technologies ????

?? Examining the economic storm on the horizon, and its potential to shake up the industry ????

?? Emphasizing the importance of building a comprehensive advanced air mobility ecosystem ????

?? Analyzing the cash burn rates of advanced air mobility players and their implications for the sector ????

While this may be the end of Kolin's AeroTechPulse for now, the spirit of innovation and exploration lives on. I encourage each and every one of you to continue exploring the fascinating world of aerospace and aviation. Stay curious, stay connected, and never stop chasing the knowledge that fuels our collective passion for the skies. ????

And don't worry, I will still be posting regular content and insights on my passion areas here on LinkedIn. I may return to publishing Kolin's AeroTechPulse in the future, and if I do, I'll be sure to let all of you know. In the meantime, please don't hesitate to reach out to me if you'd like to discuss the industry, share your thoughts, or simply stay in touch. You can connect with me on LinkedIn & Email – I'd love to hear from you! ????

Thank you once again for being a part of this incredible journey. It's been an honor to be your pilot through the ever-evolving landscape of aerospace and aviation. Until we meet again, I wish you blue skies and tailwinds on your own personal adventures. ??????

Yours truly,

Kolin ????

?? Live Today, Love Tomorrow ??

??? The Final Flight: 10 Predictions for Advanced Air Mobility ??

As we prepare for the final descent of Kolin's AeroTechPulse, I'd like to leave you with my ten predictions for the future of advanced air mobility. Fasten your seatbelts, and let's take a look into the crystal ball ??:

1?? Industry Shakeout: The Advanced Air Mobility industry will experience a shakeout, leading to companies folding, startups being acquired, and investors losing significant investments. However, this reset can be healthy for the industry, as the most promising projects and startups will survive, and then thrive, driving innovation and market consolidation by continuing on their path to success, ultimately leading to a more focused and robust market. ????

2?? Inflated Timelines: The current timelines for widespread adoption are overly optimistic, mainly due to regulatory challenges, infrastructure requirements, supply chain challenges, business case viability, and public acceptance. Experimental routes may emerge by the mid-2020s, but significant scaling of operations is more likely to occur in the 2030s, as these hurdles are gradually overcome. ???

3?? Regional First: Regional Air Mobility (RAM) will serve as a successful stepping stone for Urban Air Mobility (UAM), providing valuable experience that will propel the entire industry forward. This is because RAM can help address issues of connectivity between cities and remote areas, providing a valuable use case for the technology. By demonstrating the feasibility and benefits of these connections, the industry can build a foundation of trust and acceptance, paving the way for the eventual expansion into more congested urban environments. Furthermore, RAM can offer more predictable routes and regulatory environments, making it a more accessible entry point for the industry. ?????

4?? Geographic Disparity: Europe will lag behind due to public concerns about safety, noise pollution, risk-averse culture, and privacy. Additionally, the lack of significant time advantages (not even close to 10x) with UAM or RAM services may dampen enthusiasm due to the existence of extensive high-speed rail network. The Middle East and Asia are likely to be at the forefront, driven by greater investment in infrastructure and more favorable regulatory environments, followed by the US, where a combination of poor public transport infrastructure, existence of multiple regional airfields, and market demand could propel adoption. It is important to stress that AAM's potential varies greatly by geography. ????

5?? Green Myth: The notion of UAM and RAM as green transportation solutions will be debunked when considering the entire life cycle, from sourcing and production to operation. While operating emissions may be reduced with hybrid systems or even net-zero with full electric propulsion, the overall life cycle of these new modes of transportation could still contribute to increased CO2 emissions. The industry must work to address these concerns and strive for more sustainable options across the entire value chain to ensure a truly eco-friendly future, especially as this form of transportation will not replace existing transportation, but be an addition. ????

6?? Premium Over Mass Transportation: In the early stages, UAM and RAM services will primarily serve as high-end premium products, catering to the luxury market rather than providing mass transportation solutions. This is due to the initial high costs associated with developing and operating these new modes of transportation. As the technology becomes more widespread and costs decrease, it's possible that the market will gradually become more accessible to a broader audience, ultimately transforming urban and regional transportation. The players must endure and plan for a longer runway until the full potential and vision of AAM unfold. However, initially, UAM and RAM will likely replace "helicopter"/"private air" services, targeting affluent customers who value time savings and convenience over cost. There will also be great potential for personal aerial vehicles (PAVs) in the market, as they are already generating significant interest from wealthy individuals. ????

7?? Adapting for RAM Missions: The majority of players will adapt their products for RAM missions (from eVTOLs to eCTOLs or similar), which are more likely to take off successfully in the coming years due to attractive use cases, less regulatory uncertainty, and interest from potential operators such as airlines connecting cities or hard-to-reach regions like mountainous areas and islands. Additionally, RAM missions can provide valuable experience in tackling operational challenges, helping the industry refine its technologies and services before expanding into the more complex urban environment. ?????

8?? Beyond Pure Electric: Pure electric propulsion systems may not be viable in the near term, except for super short routes with limited time advantages. This is because current battery technology still faces limitations in terms of energy density and charging times. Players will increasingly switch to hybrid propulsion systems, hydrogen, or Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to extend their range and mission capabilities, offering more attractive and versatile solutions for a wider variety of routes and use cases. ????

9?? Ecosystem Maturation: The advanced air mobility ecosystem will take at least a decade to fully materialize. Challenges exist in all ecosystem building blocks, from physical and digital infrastructure to the aftermarket. The question remains: who will fund the necessary investments? Governments may prioritize other transportation upgrades, like high-speed train infrastructure, leaving the industry to find alternative funding sources. ????

?? Intra-industry Collaboration: A shift from competition to intra-industry collaboration will take place due to increased market pressure to deliver results. Players will form alliances to allocate resources efficiently and demonstrate the viability of this new mobility to regulators and operators. While growth may be slower and steadier than initially anticipated, collaboration will help the industry mature until the ecosystem, people, and technology are ready for large-scale adoption. ????

As we look ahead to this evolving future, let's continue to stay curious and engaged with the world of advanced air mobility. The sky's the limit! ????

----- Disclaimer -----

?? The ideas, views and opinions expressed are solely my own and are not related to the ones of my current employer ??