SO WHAT REPLACES NUCLEAR FISSION
#australianfusionenergyindustry
Using the Uranium Resources, production and Demand (Red Book) 2022, determine how much uranium resource will be available once the world trebles the number of nuclear fission plants to 1320 by 2040 in years left after 2040.
According to the Uranium Resources, Production and Demand (Red Book) 2022, the following information is relevant to your question:
Global Uranium Resources:
Identified resources (reasonably assured resources + inferred resources): 8,070,000 tonnes U
Undiscovered resources (prognosticated + speculative): 7,630,000 tonnes U
Total estimated uranium resources: 15,700,000 tonnes U
Current Global Nuclear Capacity:
As of 2021, the global nuclear power generation capacity was 439 GWe (gigawatts electric).
Projected Nuclear Capacity Increase:
The Red Book projects that the global nuclear power generation capacity could increase to 1,320 GWe by 2040, about a three-fold increase from the current capacity.
To determine the years of uranium resource availability after 2040, we need to make the following assumptions:
The uranium resource consumption rate will increase proportionally with the increase in nuclear power generation capacity.
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The total estimated uranium resources (15,700,000 tonnes U) will be available for use.
Given the information above, we can calculate the following:
Current uranium consumption rate: 439 GWe / 15,700,000 tonnes U = 0.028 GWe/tonne U
Projected uranium consumption rate in 2040: 1,320 GWe / 15,700,000 tonnes U = 0.084 GWe/tonne U
The additional uranium consumption rate after 2040 will be:
0.084 GWe/tonne U - 0.028 GWe/tonne U = 0.056 GWe/tonne U
Now, we can calculate the years of uranium resource availability after 2040:
Remaining uranium resources after 2040: 15,700,000 tonnes U
Uranium consumption rate after 2040: 0.056 GWe/tonne U
Years of uranium resource availability after 2040: 15,700,000 tonnes U / 0.056 GWe/tonne U = 280 years
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The first industrial revolution started 264 years ago. This gives the world 26 years to find a solution before the world goes dark.
Mechanical Engineer at ANSTO (NST Synroc)
3 个月280 years of uranium resources is a long way from the 20-30 you have been saying on others' posts! Assume though that the 280 years doesn't account for refining or reprocessing or use in a breeder reactor