The SNP is down...but by no means out…

By Alex Orr, Managing Director

One of the key matters clients have been asking since the General Election results from Scotland filtered in is what impact this will have on the May 2026 Scottish Parliamentary elections and if it is inevitable that Anas Sarwar will be marching into Bute House.

So, a few reflections. No bones about it, the SNP had a catastrophic night, collapsing from the 48 MPs secured in 2019 to just 9 MPs, while Labour increased from its one MP north of the border to 37.

Scotland’s Central Belt was turned from yellow to red as seat after seat toppled to the “Starmer tsunami.”However, despite Labour achieving four times the number of seats, it received a meagre 5.3 per cent more of the vote than the SNP—35.3 per cent for Labour versus 30.0 per cent for the SNP.?

Such are the vagaries of our first-past-the-post voting system. The SNP will now undergo a period of reflection, with First Minister John Swinney highlighting the need to “take stock,” including on the issue of independence.

His clear challenge is balancing an activist base hungry to promote the independence message with a public who, in a cost-of-living crisis, does not currently see the constitutional question as a critical priority or thorny issues such as gender identity.?

I suspect a period of recriminations and a measure of infighting will make for an interesting SNP annual conference in autumn. Elections to Holyrood are also just under two years away, giving the SNP time to get its act together at a time when the sheen will undoubtedly be coming off Keir Starmer’s premiership.

Refocusing on economic growth and improving public services will occur. In fairness, as the new First Minister, Mr Swinney had already begun this process before the election was called.

It must also be remembered that this was also an election in which voting for Labour was positioned as the conduit to get rid of a Tory Government. Labour’s UK vote share ultimately increased by less than two per cent when compared with 2019, with its victory very much in the face of a Tory collapse, seeing its share of the vote almost half.

This will no longer be the case in 2026, with Labour now holding the keys of power. Given the tight public finances and the maintenance of the Conservative fiscal framework for Labour, the “change” promised is unlikely to materialize to a level desired by the public.

This may well favour the SNP, as will potential divisions within the Labour Party north and south of the border.

We have a sophisticated electorate, who can differentiate between elections to different legislatures. It has shown that it is volatile and is happy to switch and switch again, which may mean the swing to Labour may not be a longer-term trend.

And for those independence supporters, the SNP is the only credible party able to deliver this. So, while the SNP may be down, it is by no means out.