Sneakernomics: Predictions for Sports Retail in 2024
2023 has been an ugly year for sports retail.
We should not expect 2024 to be any different.
The sports equipment business will continue to be challenged.? SFIA reported that youth sports participation has fallen below pre-pandemic levels. This will pressure sales of team sports equipment.
Big ticket equipment, whether fitness, cycling or outdoor, will remain challenged as well. The surge in big ticket purchases that came with the pandemic stimulus money will suppress the business in the near term. If a consumer bought a big-ticket item during the pandemic, they do not need a new one now. Many bought expensive items during the pandemic only to discover that they did not like the activity. There is now a glut of big-ticket items in the secondary market.
Climate change will hurt the industry as well.? The warmer and wetter weather will suppress outdoor activities, whether it is hiking, biking or golf.
Pickleball is the one bright spot in equipment. But even there the lack of courts and the rising injury numbers will hurt growth.
Inventory levels have improved from the predicted pandemic glut.? The quantity of inventory is much better. But the quality is not. There is still too much old, tired product that must be cleared.
Overall, the lack of new fresh products will hurt business as well. During the pandemic, brands played it safe and took little risk with innovation and new products. Consequently, we are years away from seeing new, great product. Where there is newness in the market (Hoka/On/Vuori/Lululemon), sales are great. But we cannot expect the consumer to get excited about the tired and dated products that are available from most brands.
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Brands have achieved their meager growth by being highly promotional.? Some brands appear to be on sale every day. It will take years for those brands to wean themselves of the drug of promotions. Some may never be able to get off the needle. This promotional environment will suppress growth and freshproducts for some time to come.
Activewear will continue to be challenged. There are far too many brands making far too much bad products.? Lack of newness will suppress the market well. There is energy around smaller brands, but they are too small to move the market.? The women’s market remains underserved. Brands and retailers must continue to focus on the active female.
Footwear will continue to suffer from the big brands’ promotions and lack of fresh ideas. Smaller brands are winning here and taking share but are not large enough to turn the market.
Nike running, which had been pulling down the running category appears to have bottomed out. Fresh looks and brands will buoy the running market.
The blurring of outdoor and athletic is another bright spot. Salomon is leading this trend.
As in activewear, women’s is the greatest opportunity in footwear.
In what is going to be a rough year, brands and retailers that focus on new and fresh have an opportunity to win.
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Sr.
1 年Muy claro y contundente. Esperemos que la evolución llegue pronto.
Director of Wholesale North America
1 年Thank you for this Matt, insightful as always. A few quick thoughts from the sidelines: 1) dynamic change is happening, new brands= new energy! This part of the business brings change as people look for new solutions and stories. 2) Product mix changes can be part of the solution, especially as you mention stagnation in big ticket categories, consumers can spend a few hundred dollars rather than a few thousand to refresh themselves (think new bike jerseys vs new bikes); retailers can adapt and must be able and aware of conversion on physical traffic. 3)innovations and risks go hand in hand, there is no innovation without taking risk.
Founder/Owner at ZOE + LUCA
1 年Matt. I think what you’re staying is an age old saga. Success is product/style/ function viable newness. This is a constant