Snap...

Paul Harrison, Chair and Exec Director, Advisory - and former No 10 Press Secretary?

Well, July is technically the second half of the year… The Prime Minister is going to the country six months ahead of the date he absolutely had to - Parliament will be dissolved next week, and there’s a General Election coming on 4 July.?

The small-group political planning meetings taking place in No 10 on Tuesday stayed out of the news - so this announcement comes as a genuine surprise to the media. Which means the question this evening is why now??

One reason is that this year’s OBR forecasts give the Chancellor precious little headroom. The possibility of one final tax-cutting Budget before going to the polls in the autumn was seductive for many Tory MPs - but a month ago HMT advisers were cooling significantly on whether that would even be a possibility without market reaction. Having to shelve plans for another fiscal event takes away one of the biggest reasons to wait until autumn.

The gloomy view - mirrored by the rain in which the announcement took place - of ‘why now?’ also reflects the fact that the political position for Rishi Sunak may well have gotten worse, not better, with time. On current trends, several of his pledges were likely to remain unmet over the course of the rest of the year - in particular, meaningfully cutting NHS waiting lists and using the Rwanda scheme as a way of attempting to ‘stop the boats’ are stubbornly difficult from a delivery perspective.?

The Conservatives will want the campaign to put the economy front and centre. That’s why reports earlier on Wednesday about the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, standing down were so unwelcome for Downing Street. Yesterday's inflation figures, and the more nuanced than expected IMF report on Tuesday, show it will be a tough fight - but for an incumbent, ‘finish the job’ (or as the PM said ‘not going back to square one’) remains probably the strongest electoral message.?

Labour say they’re ‘fully ready’ to go. The size of Keir Starmer’s poll lead, and the length of time for which he’s held it, suggest this election’s his to lose. But finally, after what’s been one of the most eventful Parliamentary sessions in living memory, the waiting is about to be over.