SMRs Alone Will Not Save the Nuclear Industry

Recent experiences with large-scale nuclear power plant projects like the Hinkley Point C in the U.K. and the Vogtle nuclear power station in the U.S. highlight significant challenges in constructing such facilities. These challenges predominantly revolve around cost overruns and construction delays, suggesting a need for a paradigm shift in the nuclear industry, mainly as it pivots towards Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).

The Hinkley Point C project in the U.K. has encountered numerous delays and a substantial increase in cost, now estimated to be around 70% more than initially planned. Originally forecasted to be completed in 2025 for $23 billion, the project's completion date has been pushed back several times, with the latest estimates placing it between 2029 and 2031 and costs rising to $39 to $43 billion.

Similarly, the Vogtle nuclear power station in the U.S. has been marked by significant schedule and cost overruns, specifically the construction of its two large modern reactors. Despite these setbacks, the industry has taken these experiences as lessons to guide future nuclear build programs. The Vogtle project, for instance, involved complexities such as developing a global supply chain and managing through a worldwide pandemic, underscoring the multifaceted nature of such large-scale construction projects.

An MIT study sheds light on the broader trend of cost overruns in U.S. nuclear plant construction. Contrary to expectations, the study found that building plants based on existing designs costs more rather than less than building plants based on new designs. The analysis suggests that a significant portion of the cost increases can be attributed to "soft costs" - indirect expenses related to engineering design, purchasing, planning, scheduling, and responding to changing construction conditions. This indicates a need for a more resilient design process that can accommodate variations in construction conditions and regulatory changes.

As the nuclear industry explores the potential of SMRs, we must consider these lessons learned. While SMRs offer advantages such as scalability and potential for mass production, they still represent complex construction projects. The fact that the reactor compartment is manufactured in a factory doesn't negate the challenges of onsite construction. SMRs must be designed and planned with a focus on reducing soft costs, enhancing resilience to changing conditions, and improving the overall efficiency of the construction process.