'Smile 2' Will Be Sporting A Similar Box Office Grin Second Time Around - Ticket Sales Tracking (10/14-10/17)

Hi,

Last time we met, the Clown Prince of Gotham had his last laugh as Joker: Folie à Deux crumbled against not only audience reception, but amongst the most pessimistic of box office expectations. Thankfully, my tracking was not too far off for one of the biggest bombs of the year as both my $6.20M Thurs and $14.76M Fri came in just slightly under actuals. Still, celebrating a slight underestimate for my $21.96M Pre+Thurs+Fri prediction is not necessarily so joyous when your $190M costing awards hopeful planned to open double than the tragic nightmare it is facing. At least Warner's has Beetlejuice to fall back on.

With Halloween almost upon us, Paramount Pictures is returning to the IP well with their newest horror franchise hopeful, Smile 2. Two years after the once Paramount+ original became a leggy break-out hit during Spooky Season, writer and director Parker Finn is returning for a hopefully bigger (and better) success. With an all new cast and a more lavish premise, the hope is that both fans and casual audiences can turn out for the rare horror themed title these weeks surrounding Halloween. While Smile was the first big scary movie of the 2022 season, Smile 2 is facing the second weekend of the surprise opening of Terrifier 3. Hopefully, they can both survive as Art the Clown hits a more niche horror audience while the devilish grin will try to attract a more mainstream audience. Following in the footsteps of fellow Fall-slated horror sequels, it is only right we use Saw X as a comp. I have recorded ticket sales for this Thursday and Friday for 3 Days. The green bars are how much ticket sales increased from day to day.

Following up on a breakout sequel so soon, you would think Paramount had stronger hopes for these preview numbers. For some reason, pre-sales have not been kind here as they started off extremely low. Thankfully, Smile 2 is playing more like an original horror movie instead of a sequel as ticket sales have been exponentially growing throughout the week at both locations. At this pace, Smile 2 is looking at a $2.49M Thurs compared to Saw X. Given the state of mid-budgeted movies these last couple months, this should not be too shocking, but the original was such a buzzy smash. What happened to make you not jump up from your predecessor?? Even the theater capacities of M: 1.73%?and?EH: 10.03% are just fine, but are also lacking against Saw X's M: 2.99%?and?EH: 3.44% demands. Even with fewer showtimes, Smile 2 is facing fewer drive from audience members, which hopefully is not an omen for what is to come. In some sign of hope, Paramount opted for a later than usual 7pm start time for previews, which was just the norm pre-2020. Still, with these fewer showtimes, it gives the possibility for stronger legs for the weekend. Here's hoping...

Despite the best efforts, Friday looks to be anything but a major break-out. After a decent start, ticket sales grew able to grow throughout the week and finally pop to save themselves. Still, Smile 2 is on track for a series consistent $7.21M Fri compared to Saw X. Like Thursday, this is by no means a disaster, but Paramount must have been expecting a stronger result as one of the few R-rated horror films this season from an IP. Even with a full day of showtimes compared to Thursday, Smile 2 does not look to be bouncing back as theater capacities are still rather low with M: 2.35%?and?EH: 4.74%. Like most horror titles, Theater 2 is showing a stronger demand, but it would not be surprising if Theater 1 eclipsed in demand opening day. Still, these demands are again slightly behind Saw X's M: 3.34%?and?EH: 4.76% capacities. Hopefully the strong word of mouth from the week can bring out some stellar walk-ups.

Overall, this will bring Smile 2 to an Thur+Fri opening of?$9.70M. Not a breakout, but it is not spiraling down from its predecessor. If these numbers hold, will hopefully be able to reach a $25M?opening weekend. Thankfully, Paramount was wise enough to not raise the budget too high with a reasonable $28M price tag, so this slight sequel bump is not the true death sentence some other films have received this year. As long as word of mouth is as strong as expected, Smile 2 can hopefully enjoy a month of easy play surrounding Halloween before the strong holiday titles start charging into theaters.

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TL;DR:

Thursday:?$2.49M

Friday: $7.21M

Opening Day: $9.70M