Smart or Lucky?
Even the Amish knew the US election was taking place this past Tuesday, and the only thing guaranteed with any election is there would be some winners and losers. This took on new meaning per our story last week about Polymarket, the crypto platform that allowed people to wager on candidates.
The early indicators for a Trump victory were already on display heading into Tuesday, but as the night went on it increased to a 95% "Pro-Trump" wager. This platform was looked down upon by legacy pollsters as being based on irrational thinking, greed and emotions. But, those pollsters were the ones that got the data wrong... big time. Prediction markets are definitely having a moment, the question now is whether they will become a new form of reliable real-time sentiment on issues or just a fad for people to make a buck?
Polymarket, the world’s largest online prediction market, accurately forecasted Donald Trump's election victory—hours before the media confirmed it. As election night unfolded, Polymarket's odds swung dramatically, peaking at 95% in Trump’s favor well before the Associated Press made an official call. The platform’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, hailed the outcome as a "vindication" of prediction markets’ power, particularly as the U.S. saw its first election where people could legally place bets.
With over $3.7 billion in wagers, the market provided real-time insights, despite regulatory pushback and concerns over potential election manipulation. Coplan hopes that this success will shift public perception, paving the way for wider acceptance of market-based predictions in future elections.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman recently revealed that OpenAI had acquired the domain?chat.com, which now redirects to ChatGPT. Originally purchased for $15.5 million by HubSpot's Dharmesh Shah in early 2023, the domain was sold to OpenAI just months later—reportedly for more than he paid. Shah had initially bought the domain believing that chat-based UX powered by generative AI would be the next big thing.
OpenAI’s acquisition, which may have involved stock instead of cash, aligns with its broader rebranding strategy, as seen with the recent launch of its "o1" reasoning models. With OpenAI’s $6.6 billion in funding, the purchase of?chat.com?feels like a small investment in its larger AI-driven vision.
Netflix is scaling back its interactive content, with most of its interactive shows and films set to be removed by December 1st. Out of 24 titles, only four will remain, including Black Mirror: Bandersnatch and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend. The move marks the end of Netflix's ambitious 2017 experiment with interactive storytelling, which included trivia games, specials, and interactive adventures.
Despite some early excitement, the format didn't gain widespread popularity, and the company is now shifting focus away from interactive experiences. This also comes as Netflix's gaming efforts continue to stumble, with mobile games and an unreleased AAA title both contributing to its rocky gaming trajectory.