Small steps, big steps...
At last, some good news.
There’s bad news, as well, and I will come to that. But first let’s focus on the positive, to show what can be done.
The International Energy Agency says it thinks global carbon emissions from energy will peak in 2025, as governments rush to invest in clean fuel sources.
And, crucially, Russia’s war in Ukraine is accelerating that process, not slowing it down.
The current energy crisis, caused by the Russian invasion, has prompted a series of predictions that fossil fuel production will have to rise in response.
But the IEA says precisely the opposite is happening. It predicts the global demand for fossil fuels will peak in the middle of this decade.
Just think about that for a moment. It suggests Russia is cutting off its nose to spite its face. And Big Oil’s charm offensive in favour of fossil fuels isn’t working.
There will be blips, in fact we’re in the middle of one at the moment. But the direction of travel is clear. Fossil fuels are a dying breed.
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There’s also much more disturbing news, though.
The UN says there is no credible pathway at the moment to keeping the rise in global temperatures to 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, avoiding the worst effects of climate breakdown.
In its Emissions Gap Report, the UN says current policies will lead to global warming of 2.8° this century – with alarming consequences.
It means much more needs to be done. And the transition away from an economy based on carbon needs to happen far more quickly.
Why aren’t we talking about this more? Partly because climate communications is a strange beast.
The world’s most important issue has a habit of disappearing from the headlines for months on end, until a flurry of reports, which appear within days of each other, just before the annual COP meeting.
The stark warnings from the UN and others need to be amplified, and acted upon.
But any good news should also be celebrated, as part of a positive vision of the future. Otherwise, climate doom-ism will win.