Small Business Optimism, Online Holiday Sales, Oil Prices & Inflation, Kura Sushi & More
The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since 4Q73 and monthly surveys since 1986. According to the survey conducted in November 2024, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by +8 points in November to 101.7 (highest reading since 6/21) after 34 months of remaining below the 50-year average of 98.
Online holiday season sales reflected evolving consumer preferences for mobile-first shopping, personalized AI assistance and flexible payment options according to Adobe Analytics. Initial holiday sales results included strength for Abercrombie & Fitch and lululemon with Macy’s (traditional department store) facing headwinds.
Costco’s December U.S. comps grew +9.8% y/y (traffic +5.3% y/y), with e-commerce comps up +34.4% y/y, boosted by holiday timing shifts. Strong regions included the Midwest, Northeast and Southeast. Key category growth included fresh foods, jewelry, gift cards, toys and seasonal items. Gasoline sales declined due to price deflation.
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In a recent speech, Trump promised to lower energy prices by increasing drilling and exploration. He said that this is key to lowering inflation. We can see from the following chart that it looks like Trump has a good chance at bringing down the CPI, and hopefully, lower interest rates can follow.
Recent market turbulence after strong 2023 & 2024 stock performance reflects a steepening of the yield curve such that the 10-year treasury yield now exceeds the S&P 500 earnings yield (1/PE) for the first time since 2008 through 1/7/25. Peaking long-term US Treasury yields partially reflect expectations that the incoming administration will shift from short-term to long-term debt issuance.