A Small, 818,000 Person Mistake

Gaslighting Job Growth

It has felt like a weird job market for the last two years, though the numbers have hardly reflected that. Unemployment is still at historic lows and while some people complain that the unemployment rate isn’t the real unemployment rate, it’s been consistent even in some of the alternative measures that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses. By any long-term historical measure, it’s good to be in the working population.

But something hasn’t been 100% right and with little data, we haven’t been able to really figure it out — at least until this week.

As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported number — a difference of more than 800k jobs.

Part of the discrepancy between the unemployment rate and the jobs report isn’t due to politics (like some have suggested) — it’s about something much more boring: data collection.?

For unemployment, the BLS conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) of about 60,000 households to estimate the number of people who are employed, unemployed, and the size of the labor force. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force.?

On the other hand, the nonfarm payroll report is based on a survey of about 142,000 businesses and government agencies, covering approximately 689,000 worksites. It excludes farm workers, private household employees, and nonprofit organization employees. The BLS also does a more comprehensive survey annually to benchmark their numbers and ensure they are close to correct.?

Yawn? I know.?

This correction from their monthly payroll surveys is bigger than usual, though (the most significant since 2009). The biggest correction was in the professional services industry — our industry — which was nearly half of the number with 358,000 fewer jobs created.?

It’s nice to have your hunches confirmed by data, at least eventually.?

That said, even with less job growth, we’re still growing overall and the slight rise in unemployment has been attributed to more people entering the workforce (not necessarily layoffs). That might not make people still looking for a job feel better, but it’s promising for the big picture.?

One thing I will say is that the weirdness isn’t over, though. I hate that’s the case but I think the same blind spot the BLS found with their monthly payroll survey versus their annual payroll benchmark probably exists elsewhere in our economic indicators. We’ll find it, eventually.

Don’t Hotelify Your Office

First, let’s jump straight into the lede of this story from the New York Times :?

Visitors to the Springline complex in Menlo Park, Calif., are surrounded by a sense of comfort and luxury often found at high-end hotels: off-white walls with a Roman clay finish, a gray-and-white marble coffee table and a white leather bench beneath an 8-by-4 resin canvas etched with the words “Hello, tomorrow.” Springline’s signature scent — hints of salty sea air, white water lily, dry musk and honeydew melon — linger in the air.?

But Springline isn’t a hotel. It’s a “work resort,” meaning that its office space designs have taken a page from boutique hotels.

I can’t think of a place I’d want to work at less than this.?

Look, this is such naked posturing from commercial real estate bag holders, design firms, and business leaders who desperately want people back in the office (spoiler alert: those leaders still aren’t going to come to the office frequently; they just want their people there). It’s more creative than adding a ping pong table and cheap gym equipment, but it still has the same effect: It doesn’t materially improve the work experience of, you know, actually working.?

The one employer they actually talked to, a law firm, said they still only have about half their people coming in every day. Better than their peers? So they say, but for those folks still working remotely, the amenities mean very little compared to the practicality of collaborating and working together in a hybrid environment.?

If you’re forcing people to come into the office every day, it’s better to be in nice digs than in a basement killing cockroaches. But one of the people said that working there can make a 2-3 hour round trip commute worth it.?

No, no, no. I can’t imagine anything other than mountains of cash making that hellish commute worth it.?

Quick hits from around the web

What else is happening??

• Human Resources Needs a Major Overhaul via Fast Company
• AI Smarts And Human Hearts: The New Work Dynamic via Forbes
• 5 Key Voluntary Benefits to Watch in 2025 via HR Executive
• “I Misspoke” | Ex-Google CEO Walks Back Claims That “Work-Life Balance” Damaged the Company’s Performance via HR Grapevine
• Harley-Davidson Is Dropping DEI Policies After Pressure From Diversity Critics via CBS News
• Workers’ BLM Protest Activity Not Shielded by Federal Labor Law via Bloomberg Law

If HR Was Honest

Plenty of things happening in the world of work but here’s a funny (and a little cynical) look at HR from Honest Ads . All the funny red flags (“We’re like family here!”) included.

That's it for this week!?

Lance

[Shameless Plug]

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