Slovenia: Opposition SDS-backed Logar, independent Pirc Musar reach runoff round

• Logar convincingly wins Oct 23 first round of presidential election with 33.96% of the vote
• His main rival, independent candidate Natasa Pirc Musar, trailed behind with 26.87%
• Ruling Movement Freedom, SD-backed candidate Brglez comes third with 15.41%
• PM Robert Golob endorses Pirc Musar's candidacy in Nov 13 runoff round of election
• Pirc Musar more likely to win runoff round by consolidating left-leaning, liberal, anti-SDS vote

The main opposition SDS-backed candidate Anze Logar and left-leaning independent candidate Natasa Pirc Musar will face each other in the Nov 13 runoff round of the presidential election, according to information from the National Electoral Commission (DVK). Former Foreign Minister Anze Logar comfortably won the Oct 23 first round of the presidential election by gathering 33.96% of the vote compared to 26.87% for Pirc Musar with 99.93% of the ballots counted. The junior ruling Social Democrats (SD) MEP Milan Brglez, who was backed by PM Robert Golob's senior ruling Movement Freedom, came third in the presidential race after gathering 15.41% of the vote. The surprise in the election was the result of the southern town of Kocevje mayor Vladimir Prebilic, who gathered 10.66% of the vote and showed potential to achieve higher political feats in the future. Anti-lockdown gynaecologist Sabina Sencar came fifth with 5.95% of the vote, followed by the opposition New Slovenia (NSi) candidate and former Labour Minister Janez Cigler Kralj with 4.35% of the vote. The junior ruling leftist party Levica MP Miha Kordis came last in the presidential race with only 2.80% of the vote.

Logar's presidential campaign was marked by his conciliatory, reserved and neutral style, despite his close ties to the controversial SDS leader and former PM Janez Jansa. Logar has pledged to promote cooperation between the political forces in the country and organise biannual meetings of all leaders of political parties in the country in a bid to bridge the divisions within the Slovenian society. He has also pledged to fight corruption, improve the economy, accelerate the green transition process, increase investments in the defence sector and encourage a society of solidarity and opportunity that would be attractive for young and creative individuals. Logar commented that the campaign for the runoff round in the presidential election will be issue-based. Logar also said that citizens have affirmed his ideas for cooperation for the future of Slovenia and that he would go into the runoff round with a feeling of victory.

Pirc Musar, Slovenia's former information commissioner, a former TV anchor and a prominent lawyer, was the early favourite to win the first round of the presidential election. Her election campaign was concentrated on human rights, social welfare and the rule of law, although she has repeatedly stated that the healthcare reform, the pension reform, climate neutrality and comprehensive security would also be her priorities. However, her campaign was marred by allegations regarding the source of wealth of her husband Ales Musar, a prominent local entrepreneur. Her husband was also accused of having offshore accounts and of deliberate tax evasion. Those allegations have certainly undermined support for Pirc Musar, especially among left-leaning voters. Pirc Musar would be Slovenia's first female president if elected in the runoff round.

PM Robert Golob endorsed Pirc Musar in the runoff round of the election. He also said that Brglez's presidential bid was not a failure and that it contributed to making the coalition between Movement Freedom and SD stronger. He also denied that Brglez's failure to reach the runoff round in the election was a vote of no-confidence in the ruling coalition as presidential and parliamentary elections are different.

RUNOFF ROUND

Despite the convincing victory in the first round, Logar is more likely to lose the Nov 13 runoff round to Pirc Musar, especially if there is a consolidation of the centre-left voters behind her. We note Logar is a prominent member of SDS and has close ties with party leader Janez Jansa, who was punished in the Apr 24 parliamentary election for the controversial policies of his government, which were widely seen as authoritarian and undemocratic by his opponents. Logar would find it difficult to attract new voters in the runoff round, except for those of the opposition New Slovenia (NSi) and its candidate Janez Cigler Kralj. Despite keeping a distance from the SDS leadership and the rhetoric of the party in his presidential campaign, Logar is unlikely to become Slovenia's next president, mainly because of the past actions of SDS.

Pirc Musar is likely to consolidate the left-leaning, liberal and anti-Jansa voters, especially after getting support from Golob. The turnout in the runoff round would be key for its outcome and will most likely depend on the resolve of the centre-left voters to head to the polling stations. Most of the pre-election polls that have measured the voting preferences in a potential runoff round between Pirc Musar and Logar, have indicated stronger support for Pirc Musar.

ELECTORAL SYSTEM

Presidents are elected for a five-year term, with no more than two consecutive terms allowed. We note that incumbent President Borut Pahor's second term expires on Dec 22 and the country's new president will take office on Dec 23. The role of the president of Slovenia is largely ceremonial, despite being asserted as the highest representative of the state in the state constitution. Still, the president has the power to appoint constitutional court judges and even the governor of the Bank of Slovenia. The president also serves as commander-in-chief of the Slovenian armed forces.