Slovakia: Smer-SD to win Sep 30 snap election, shift policy to undesirable, unhealthy path
Metodi Tzanov
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All opinion polls indicate that the leftist party Smer-SD of former PM Robert Fico is likely to win the early general election set for Sep 30, but it will not be able to rule alone garnering around a fifth of the vote, according to all recent opinion polls. Even if Smer-SD convinces its sister party Voice-SD of ex-PM Peter Pellegrini to cooperate in a future government, they would need at least two other partners to form a majority government, the polls in the last four-five weeks indicate. These are more likely to be right-wing populist protest party We Are Family and nationalist SNS, given their recent statements, as in the meantime Voice-SD has resolutely rejected any potential cooperation with the far-right Republika, while Smer-SD has of late changed its attitude to the far-right movement. Given SNS recent statements with regard Russia, as well as Smer-SD stance in this regard, such a cabinet may change Slovakia's foreign policy orientation, something Smer-SD has rejected with regard to the EU and NATO, but not with regard to Russia. This is something all rating agencies and international institution have been fearing of for months.
At the same time, given the opinion polls, the emergence of a centre-right government is quite unlikely. On the one hand, such a coalition would have to comprise at least five political entities led by Progressive Slovakia - also OLaNO-led coalition (it is most likely to fail to enter the parliament), SaS, KDH and We Are Family, which by default indicates quite unstable government, especially in view of the track-record from the joint governance of OLaNO and SaS in the government of ex-PM Igor Matovic and lately of ex-PM Eduard Heger that lost confidence last December. On the other, such a cabinet will not be able to muster even a simple majority in the parliament, while we doubt President Zuzana Caputova would agree with such a scenario given the political and economic chaos in the country during the last year after Heger's government lost majority following SaS leaving the ruling coalition and was subsequently was toppled, also thanks to SaS's votes.
Recent polls indicate that the ethnic-Hungarian community is unlikely to be represented in the parliament.
MAIN PARTIES
A total of 24 political parties and movements and one coalition (OLaNO-led coalition with For the People and the Christian Union) have submitted their lists of candidates and paid the necessary electoral deposit by the deadline, the same as in the 2020 general election, and 2,722 candidates are applying for the mandates of lawmakers. We go through the most important parties and coalitions below. They are presented in order reflecting the 2020 election result and representation in parliament or, in case of non-parliamentary parties, their preferences. Some policy ideas are presented only for the parties whose preferences indicate they would enter the parliament, details can be found in our earlier?story.
Parliamentary parties
OLaNO (53 lawmakers; 29 after MPs around Eduard Heger left to set up Democrats; 19 MPs in the previous parliament)
Conservative centrist party Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OLaNO) is running in the election in a coalition with former junior ruling party For the People and the Christian Union. The party won the 2020 elections, but its support has been continuously falling affected by the nonsensical behaviour of its chairperson Matovic, and now, after MPs close to interim PM Eduard Heger left it to form the Democrats, pollsters indicate the led by the coalition may not even cross the 7% electoral threshold.
Policy ideas (details can be found at our earlier?story). The coalition has not presented a comprehensive programme. OLaNO defines eleven priorities: rule of law, zero tolerance of fraud and corruption; democracy; supporting the family; support of education, science, research and innovation; education for true patriotism, rejection of extremism and criminal ideologies; effective social services and healthcare; fair taxes, easier business and reliable transport; pro-Western orientation - useful EU and a functional NATO; professional, high-quality and modern defence and security.
Smer-SD (38 lawmakers; 27 after 11 MPs around Peter Pellegrini left to set up Voice-SD in 2020; 49 in the previous parliament)
Leftist Smer-SD (Direction) came to power first after the 2006 elections it won, forming a coalition with the HZDS of controversial Vladimir Meciar and SNS. It won the 2010 elections, but could not form a coalition and went into opposition. In the 2012 snap polls, it won an absolute majority of 83 seats and was able to rule alone. In the 2016 general election, it won 49 seats in the parliament, and returned to power, but in a coalition with the SNS, Most-Hid and Siet' (the latter later dissolved and most of its MPs joined ethnic-Hungarian Most-Hid's caucus). Following the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak in February 2018 and the unseen since the Velvet Revolution mass protests across Slovakia, Smer-SD chairperson Robert Fico announced his resignation as premier and was succeeded by Smer-SD deputy chairperson Peter Pellegrini. The party lost the 2020 general election. All recent polls indicate that Smer-SD is to win the elections with about a fifth of the vote (but has potential to gain even a quarter) - after the formation of Voice-SD it lost voters, but subsequently, in the beginning of this year it regained most of them, thus outperforming and widening the lead over Voice-SD, which was formed in 2020 by party's splinters close to Pellegrini. Fico has numerous times said he wanted to cooperate with Voice-SD - initially the latter seemed reluctant, but not so much of late. Smer-SD also said it was ready to cooperate with non-parliamentary Republika that was formed by splinters from far-right party L'SNS, but now it seems to reject cooperation with Republika due to the latter's plan to initiate referendum on NATO membership saying that it did not want to change Slovakia's foreign policy orientation.
Strengths: Experienced politicians, strong social agenda.
Weaknesses: Too generous social agenda, respectively, likely failure to consolidate public finances, failure to use to a greater extent robustly growing in the past years economy for even stronger fiscal consolidation, corruption of key figures in the party.
Policy ideas (details can be found at our earlier?story). The party has a strong welfare plan aimed to stop the decline of standard of living, stop spread of poverty, eliminate inequalities - by fighting price increases, subsidising interest rates on mortgage loans. The party wants to strengthen the position of the state as a regulator of the economy, reintroduce social programmes. The party wants to revise tax evasion mechanism, support businesses, push for solidarity of firms reporting excessive profits, consolidate public finances reasonably. In terms of geopolitics, the party views EU and NATO membership irreplaceable, but rejects the weakening of individual EU member states' position by cancelling the right of veto. It supports humanitarian but rejects military aid to Ukraine and wants to assess all types of sanctions on any country (we read this on Russia as well) on the impact they would have on Slovakia.
Prime minister candidate: Fico is among the most distrustful politicians but nevertheless he will vie for the post. Although Smer-SD leads in opinion polls, Fico is only the second most preferred future premier.
We Are Family (17 lawmakers; 16 in fact; 11 legislators in the previous parliament)
We Are Family is a right-wing populist protest party led by Boris Kollar known for its populism and opposition to immigration. The party was founded in November 2015 by renaming and repurposing the existing minor party Our Land. The party was part of the centre-right government of OLaNO (together with SaS and For the People) that fell in December 2022. The recent statements of its chairperson and Parliament's Speaker Boris Kollar with regard to the security crisis and the National Crime Agency NAKA's recent operation Resolution, which generally and indirectly support the stance of Smer-SD, indicate that the party is preparing the grounds for joining the future government of Smer-SD.
Policy ideas (details can be found at our earlier?story). Strengthening state to ensure quality domestic food at fair prices; households to have housing security even in case of inability to pay mortgage instalments; transform Slovakia from an assembly shop to an advanced technological economy with high added value and higher salaries; help families and children, single-parent households deal with high inflation.
Kotlebists - People's Party Our Slovakia K-L'SNS (17 lawmakers; 7 MPs after some around Milan Ulrih left to set up Republika; 14 legislators in the previous parliament)
The People's Party - Our Slovakia L'SNS is a far-right neo-Nazi, openly racist, anti-EU and anti-NATO political party. In the past, the party was investigated over alleged neo-Nazi propaganda and some of its MPs were found guilty and fined for spreading racial hatred. After the MPs around Milan Ulrih left to form Repubika movement, the party's rating has been declining and all recent polls indicate that it is not to make it to the parliament.
Freedom and Solidarity SaS (13 lawmakers; 19 after MPs from the For the People party left it; 21 in previous parliament)
The Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) is a centre-right liberal party set up in 2009 by the economist Richard Sulik, who designed Slovakia's flat tax system. It was part of the ruling coalition of OLaNO, We Are Family and For the People until September 2022 when it left over Sulik's controversial and quite tense relations with OLaNO's head Matovic. It has been blamed for toppling the two democratic governments of Slovakia - that of Iveta Radicova back in October 2011 and of Eduard Heger (then member of OLaNO, now chairperson of non-parliamentary party Democrats) in December 2022.
Strengths: Economic expertise, fiscal conservatism, reform-oriented.
Weaknesses: Rather straightforward, may be difficult to reach compromise on issues if they go against its ideology (such as rejection of raising taxes, therefore unreliable coalition partner.
Policy ideas (details can be found at our earlier?story). Flat tax of 19%, expanding the tasks of the Value for Money Unit, financial strengthening of local governments. Fight against corruption and change Paragraph 363 of the Penal Code, change in the position of the prosecutor's office, support of Ukraine.
For the People (12 lawmakers; 6 left to join SaS, now it has only 1 MP)
For the People is a centrist party founded by former president Andrej Kiska in 2019. It wanted to create a Block of Change from the democratic opposition parties - For the People, PS-Spolu, KDH, SaS and OLaNO, but eventually decided to run in the 2020 general election on its own as KDH refused to participate in the Block. Following internal disputes, some of its members left it to join later SaS during Heger's government. As all pollsters indicate the party is not to cross the electoral threshold and it decided to join a coalition with OLaNO and the Christian Union.
Non-parliamentary parties (not elected in 2020 elections)
Progressive Slovakia
Progressive Slovakia is a social-liberal, progressive and pro-European party, which was established in 2017. The party first gained attention in 2018 when its favoured candidate, Matus Vallo, won the municipal elections in Bratislava and became the mayor. The victory of Progressive Slovakia's presidential candidate, lawyer Zuzana Caputova, for whom some say she is the Slovak Erin Brokovich, in the 2019 presidential election, was hailed by international media as a victory of liberalism over populism. The party also got the highest vote share in the 2019 EP elections. In the 2020 general election it ran in a coalition with liberal conservative Spolu (Together - Civic Democracy) that was established in 2018 by former under-secretary of Siet' Miroslav Beblavy, but the coalition failed to enter the parliament by a narrow margin (0.04pps below the 7% electoral threshold for a coalition of up to four parties). All recent polls indicate the party is the second strongest political force.
Policy ideas (details can be found at our earlier?story). The party wants to restart the economy with reforms and support to entrepreneurship and innovation, provide for simple, efficient and fair tax system. Supports fiscal consolidation, but socially and economically sustainable way, via savings on least effective expenditures and cancellation of inefficient subsidies, as well as using value-for-money for all public spending. The party suggests measures for vulnerable people for solving the cost of living crisis as well as systemic measures in energy, agriculture, food, the housing market, and banking. The party supports diplomatic, humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine, as well as strengthening the resistance of Slovakia to dependence on supplies of raw materials, energy.
Voice-SD & Good Choice (12 MPs)
Voice-SD is a social-democratic party founded in 2020 by dissidents from Smer-SD led by ex-PM Peter Pellegrini. It has a pro-European outlook and wants to promote traditional social-democratic goals within the welfare state. Reflecting a more conservative stance, especially on social issues, the party refuses to promote liberalism on social issues. Voice-SD merged with Good Choice (Dobra Volba) party of Tomas Drucker, once health minister, in June. While the party led the opinion polls for a year after its formation, since 2022 its support is declining and from first force, it gradually slid to second (outperformed by Smer-SD) and to third place (outperformed also by Progressive Slovakia). Pellegrini has stated he could see the party cooperating on both sides of the political spectrum, but has joined the criticism of Smer-SD to Progressive Slovakia. It is overall rejected by centre-right parties as potential post-election partner.
Strengths: Experienced politicians, strong social agenda.
Weaknesses: Several members of the party's presidium, including Pellegrini, are associated with bribery and abuse of power in the testimonies of cooperating defendants. In December 2020, the National Crime Agency NAKA charged Peter Ziga, a member of the party's presidium, with bribery.
Prime minister candidate: It would be Pellegrini as he is among the most trusted politicians and is preferred by Slovaks as next premier.
Policy ideas (details can be found at our earlier?story). No comprehensive programme published. General ideas - right to work, the defence of the national interests and restart of the social policy of the state; affordable rental housing; Recovery Plan must also include a third pillar (besides green and digital) - social solidarity; fiscal consolidation coupled with massive investments in growth.
Republika (5 MPs)
Founded in March 2021 by Milan Uhrik and former members of the far-right L'SNS, the movement took over and renamed the existing party?Voice of the People?(Hlas Ludu) led by Peter Marcek, who was later expelled. The party has gradually emerged as the fourth political force. Its participation in the future government is questionable given its stance on NATO membership as Smer-SD has assured it does not plan to change the foreign policy orientation of the country and insists on the continuation of Slovakia's membership in the EU and NATO.
Policy ideas (details can be found at our earlier?story). The party promises uncompromising but objective and apolitical fight against corruption, significant increase of state support for working families with children and free retraining for people to find better jobs, end to retirement age increase, higher pensions from taxes and dividends from strategic firms. Rejects NATO's aggressive foreign policy and wants to initiate a referendum on Slovakia leaving the Alliance. The party wants to support the development of industry and sectors with high added value; return of strategic monopolies (electricity, gas, water) back into the hands of the state, including control over energy pricing; abolition of energy sanctions and import of affordable energy goods also from the East; start the process of preparing the construction of a new nuclear power plant. The party pledges to depoliticise the police and the prosecutor's office (including the election of the general prosecutor); abolish the Special Prosecutor's Office; make a referendum functional by cancelling minimum quorum for its validity and make its result constitutionally binding. The party wants to ensure stable and predictable economic environment for companies; modernise and simplify entire tax and levy system. It promotes fundamental reform of the EU and its return to an exclusively economic association of sovereign states, if reform fails, the party is ready to initiate a referendum on Slovakia's leaving the EU.
Christian Democratic Movement KDH
The KDH is a long-existing conservative Christian democratic party currently led by Milan Majersky. It has not been in the parliament since the 2016 parliamentary election, when the party won only 4.94% of the vote, losing all of its seats (16 MPs); in the 2020 elections it won 4.65% of the vote vs. the 5% electoral threshold. Opinion polls show that it is to enter the parliament this year, with around 6% backing.
Policy ideas (details can be found at our earlier?story). The party wants to enforce energy poverty law, control retail chains' margins. It wants to increase number of starting nurses, provide them with a start-up allowance, reduce average working hours and increase wages of teachers. Reduce administrative burden for small entrepreneurs and self-employed people, including by introducing favourable flat-rate deduction. Wants to simplify tax system to a single income tax.
Slovak National Party SNS (15 legislators in the previous parliament)
SNS characterises itself as a socialist, nationalist one based on a European-Christian system of values but which is sometimes described as ultra-nationalist, right-wing extremist and far-right due to its statements on Hungarians and Romas. SNS has won seats in every parliament but three (2002, 2012 and 2020) since 1990 and was part of the Smer-SD-led governments in 2006-10 and 2016-20. Since 2012, the party has been led by lawyer Andrej Danko. SNS views Smer-SD and Voice-SD as its closest post-election partners, but is concerned that Voice-SD may eventually 'betray' Smer-SD and SNS and join forces with other parties. Polls indicate its support above the threshold at some 5.5%.
Policy ideas: The party has not presented a comprehensive programme. Yet, its leader Andrej Danko stated that he believed that the sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should be abolished and the imports of oil and gas from Russia to be resumed so that Slovakia's energy security is guaranteed.
Democrats (16 MPs)
It emerged on the basis of Spolu party that was founded in 2018 by Miroslav Beblavy, who resigned from the post after the party's failure in the 2020 general election. It was renamed to Blue Coalition and was led by ex-PM Mikulas Dzurinda but because of disagreements with the then Miroslav Kollar, the then Spolu leader, Dzurinda left the party. Since March 2023 the party is led by ex-PM Eduard Heger who renamed it to Democrats. Spolu was a centre-right conservative liberal and liberal conservative party and was placed as centrist or centre-right on the political spectrum. Heger presents the Democrats as centrist, pro-European, pro-NATO and green. As the splinters from OLaNO around Heger joined the party, it is represented in the parliament with 16 MPs. Except for Spolu, the Democrats also comprises Change from the Bottom Up, Chance, Good Day Slovakia and Apple.
Alliance
The Alliance (Aliancia) is a party for the ethnic Hungarian minority, previously known as Party of the Hungarian Coalition or Party of the Hungarian Community. The Alliance was formed by merging SMK-MKP, Most-Hid, and MKO-MKS in 2021 following two years of negotiations between five Hungarian political parties about the possibility of cooperation in order to secure a return to parliament or to be part of the governing coalition. SMK-MKP continued to exist as a faction within Alliance as the Hungarian Conservative Platform (MKP). Earlier this year however Most-Hid left the united party again over a dispute about allowing former OLaNO MP Gyorgy Gyimesi on the list.
Modri, Most-Hid
Blue - European Slovakia and Most-Hid (Modri, Most-Hid) is centre-right party, registered in May 2023. It was founded by ex-PM Dzurinda after he decided to leave the Blue Coalition (now Democrats) project. Among the programme priorities for the upcoming parliamentary election, they included strengthening economic growth, stopping the drastic increase in prices and inflation, reforming education and healthcare. In May 2023, the platform of former Most-Hid party (under the name Most-Hid 2023) headed by Laszlo Solymos announced cooperation with the Blues party after it announced its withdrawal from the Alliance project. Then the party was officially renamed to Modri, Most-Hid.
Hungarian Forum et al
The Hungarian Forum (Madarske Forum) was established in 2019 by Zsolt Simon, an independent MP, who resigned from Most-Hid in 2016 due to its entry into the governing coalition with the Smer-SD and SNS. In the run-up to the elections, the party also comprises the Civic Democrats of Slovakia, For the Regions, the Roma Coalition, the Democratic Party.
The main goal of the party is to ensure the parliamentary representation of Hungarians in Slovakia and to use it as a tool for actions so that people from the Hungarian community are equal citizens of a democratic Slovakia. Among its priorities is a change in the preamble of the Constitution, a change in the financing of local governments, as well as in the territorial and legal division of the country. It wants to push for the southern regions to receive an average amount of public investment and expenditure, from infrastructure development, through the support of industrial parks and private investment, to the promotion of Hungarian cultural life.
OPINION POLLS
The results of the polls indicate that unless the likely winner of the elections - Smer-SD, manages to form majority coalition, new snap polls may be needed.
As, given the polls, it is impossible for Smer-SD and Voice-SD to form a government by themselves, Voice-SD rejects cooperation with Republika, the centre-right parties are unlikely to be able to muster even 76 MPs simple majority in the 150-seat parliament, while President Zuzana Caputova is unlikely to agree with a minority government after the chaos during the last year, we see one central scenario after the elections, namely a four-party coalition government of Smer-SD, Voice-SD, We Are Family and SNS.
Although we do not expect such a cabinet to change Slovakia's attitude to the EU and NATO, given Smer-SD recent statement, there would be a change in the country's foreign policy orientation, especially with regard to Russia and the imposed sanctions on it. Recall that Fico has called for an end to military aid to Ukraine. Smer-SD has also taken to increasingly harsh rhetoric against Brussels and what Fico has called 'Western propaganda', while Fico even stated that 'Ukrainian fascists' started the war in Ukraine in 2014. Moreover, the SNS has been advocating for an end to the sanctions on Russia and resumption of energy supplies from Russia in order to guarantee the energy security of Slovakia. Changes in the economy can also be expected by such a cabinet - much stronger state intervention, hence the risk of losing foreign investors, quite generous social programmes, hence failure to consolidate public finances sufficiently and risk of ratings downgrade, among others.
LEGISLATIVE BACKGROUND
The 150-member unicameral Slovak parliament is elected directly every four years. Legislators are elected on the basis of proportional representation. Following the election, the leader of the majority party or the leader of the majority coalition is usually appointed PM-designate by the president and has to win a confidence vote for his government in the parliament.