??????? Slovakia has voted - what will happen next?

Opinion polls over recent weeks have consistently predicted a close electoral race between the left-leaning SMER party, associated with the anti-establishment and pro-Russian sentiments of former Prime Minister Robert Fico , and the more liberal and pro-European Progressive Slovakia (PS, Progresívne Slovensko ) party led by MEP Michal ?ime?ka . Concurrently, political analysts predicted that any future government will hinge on the support of several smaller parties. However, it had remained uncertain which of these parties would surpass the minimum threshold to secure parliamentary seats.

After counting nearly all the votes, Fico’s SMER party emerged as the front-runner with 22.94% of the votes, equating to 42 seats, while ?ime?ka’s PS party followed in second place with 17.96%, or 32 seats. To obtain a majority in the Slovak parliament, which comprises 150 seats, the backing of 76 MPs is essential to form a stable government. The future government, therefore, hinges on the formation of a coalition.

Fico can likely rely on the support of the nationalist right-wing SNS party, which clinched 5.62% of the votes, amounting to 10 MPs. His party previously aligned with the SNS twice: from 2006-2010 and 2016-2020. To secure a majority, he would still require the backing of his former party colleague and ex-Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini. Pellegrini, along with 10 MPs, departed from the SMER party in June 2020 to launch his centre-left movement, HLAS, which came third in the elections with 14.70% or 27 seats. Together, these three parties would command 79 MPs in the Slovak parliament, three more than required for a majority. All other parties with parliamentary seats appear more inclined to support the PS party rather than Fico. Should HLAS opt not to back Fico, their votes could bolster a centrist multiparty alliance to achieve a sufficient parliamentary majority.

Considering this potential kingmaker position, where does Pellegrini’s HLAS party stand, and which side is more poised to gain their backing? Predicting their coalition decision is challenging, and will largely pivot on the political concessions other parties are prepared to grant. Before the election, Pellegrini had rebuffed Fico as a “politician of the past” and one who “can no longer offer Slovakia any hope or vision for the 21st century”. However, post-election, he seemed more amenable to a coalition with SMER, noting that “nothing prevents the creation of such a coalition”, even though having “two former prime ministers in the same government is not optimal”. Both Fico’s SMER and Pellegrini’s HLAS have affiliations with the Party of European Socialists, potentially easing a cooperation agreement between them. However, SMER has drawn disapproval from their European party counterparts over the past years. As recently as July 2023, the co-party leader of the German Social Democratic Party - Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) - Lars Klingbeil , admonished SMER against allying with far-right elements and threatened sanctions should this transpire. Similarly, after the election, the President of the Party of European Socialists (PES) Stefan L?fven warned that Smer could be excluded from PES if Fico continues his pro-Russia stance in power.?If both SMER and HLAS still choose to collaborate with the nationalist SNS and do not alter their approach towards Russia, such ramifications might befall both parties. Conversely, PS leader Michal ?ime?ka, the morning after the elections, expressed an eagerness to explore all options that would confine both SMER and the nationalist SNS party to the opposition. For this to be feasible, Pellegrini would need an irresistible political overture. This could entail bestowing upon Pellegrini, whose party ranked third, the title of prime minister.

During the national elections campaign, Fico capitalised on anti-Western and pro-Russian sentiment. Not only did he pledge to cease military support to Ukraine by forgoing the shipment of "a single round of ammunition", but he also vociferously criticised NATO’s military footprint in Slovakia and objected to sanctions on Russia. He also reveres the governing style of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. In Fico's eyes, Orbán does not flinch from challenging European partners if he deems the national interest calls for it - an approach Fico esteems and one that could pivot Slovakia's foreign policy drastically. Earlier, Fico berated the current Slovak president, Zuzana ?aputová , for establishing a technical caretaker government, dubbing her a US spy who installed a "Soros government". Invoking US businessman and philanthropist of Jewish descent, George Soros, as seen in Hungary, echoes anti-establishment sentiment in the wider populace. If Fico indeed manages to form a coalition with support from far-right nationalists and stays in line with his rhetoric as an opposition leader, it may hint at Slovakia gradually veering towards an illiberal democracy model, incorporating specific authoritarian governance elements. This trajectory starkly contrasts the more pro-European posture of the preceding centre-right Slovak administration and Michal ?ime?ka’s liberal PS party, which favours constructive engagement with EU and NATO affiliates over adversarial tactics. Consequently, the composition of the imminent coalition will not only determine the individuals who will become ministers but will also profoundly influence the nation’s strategic course in the ensuing years.