Skymet sounds “Red Alert” for the state of Odisha and West Bengal

The southwest Monsoon has reached Andaman sea and neighbourhood 5 days before the scheduled date. Generally, it takes about 10 more days to reach mainland Kerala however, the arrival of Monsoon over Andaman sea and Kerala has no bearing on its further advancement and performance through the season.

India’s lockdown has been both most stringent than other countries as well as the most effective also. But it has come with a phenomenal cost. A sharp deceleration in economic output is expected. The easing of lockdown will see economic activity pick-up, but how much of it will translate into earning growth remains to be seen. The government has unveiled 5 tranches of fiscal packages which can partially offset the shock to singed segments of the economy. The pain in smaller businesses is likely to be more acute.

The COVID situation is leading to a dilemma of command, whether to catch the bull by its horns or chase the tail. Both are fraught with dangers. After tapering last month, India’s coronavirus trajectory has picked up this month and the figure is likely to cross 1 lakh anytime soon. Resumption of train services, though on selected routes is marked with risk. Such indulgences have an element of proximity which dampens the concept of physical distancing. Even airlines may be allowed to partially resume their services by the month-end. The continuing rise in cases poses a severe challenge for India’s strained medical capacity and overburdened health systems. It is a new virus and very hard to predict when we prevail over it. Therefore, it is time to come to terms and learn to live with it.

Depleting water table and shortage of farm labour have prompted Punjab and Haryana to promote the planting of crops other than paddy. The Haryana government has announced an incentive of Rs 7000 per acre for non-paddy cultivation. Punjab is urging farmers to go for maize instead of paddy. Crop diversification has implications on cropping patterns and lifecycle as well. Paddy is water intense and labour loaded crop and both these resources are at a premium at this time. Possibly this only has lead Haryana government banning paddy cultivation in 8 of the water-stressed blocks, albeit announcing cash incentives for crops in lieu.

First cyclone ‘Amphan’ of this season is heading for North Odisha and West Bengal. Tentatively, the storm will make landfall on the 20th of May, both the states along with northeast India need to go on high alert.

North India

This is a week with least weather activity across the region albeit with rising temperatures of 40 degrees and above at many places. A weak western disturbance will give rain and thundershowers across the hills on 18th and 19th of May. Hot days with loo conditions and dust raising winds are expected over Rajasthan, parts of Haryana and Delhi NCR in the second half of the week.

East & North East India

Given cyclone ‘Amphan’ hitting west Bengal, adverse weather conditions are likely over Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal on 19th and 20th of May. Squally weather with extremely heavy rains are likely over West Bengal and widespread heavy rains and thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds are expected over Bihar and Jharkhand also. North-East India will experience wet spell for the entire week. Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh will have intense thunderstorms and lightning with heavy rains till 21st May.

Central India

Coastal Odisha will experience stormy conditions from 18th to 20th of May. High-velocity winds with extremely heavy rains carrying damaging potential are likely at many places of and along the coast. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra will remain free form weather activity. Few parts of Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra will experience isolated rain thunderstorms during the first half of the week. The temperatures, however, will be shooting to cause heatwave conditions in many pockets of central India.

South Peninsula

Kerala and Karnataka will experience rain and thundershower, more intense over Kerala throughout the week. Telangana and south coastal Andhra Pradesh will have the least weather activity. Cyclone Amphan will cause strong winds and moderate rains over north coastal Andhra Pradesh on 18th of May. Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema will, also experience isolate rains and thundershowers in the beginning and then at the end of the week.

Delhi NCR

Delhi NCR will have sunny days and scorching heat this week. The temperatures will invariably reach or cross 40 degrees. Loo conditions, with hot and strong winds, are likely in the second half of the week. Record highest temperatures of this seasons are likely in this week.

Chennai

Hot and humid conditions are expected throughout the week. Maximum and minimum temperatures will remain in the high 30s and high 20s respectively. Scattered patchy showers can be expected over the capital city on the 18th of May.

Footnote- Cyclone ‘Amphan’ will be lashing high-velocity winds and extremely heavy rains over Odisha and West Bengal. The wave height in the coastal areas could be from 15 to 20 feet. Flooding rains are likely to cause the inundation. Sea conditions will be extremely rough for the next 5 days. Strike of a severe storm amidst COVID -19 and lockdown 4.0 will add another dimension to the level of preparations. Skymet sounds “Red Alert” for the state of Odisha and West Bengal