?? Skill 7: Practice strong opinions, lightly held

Hold your opinions about the future lightly. Be open to hearing other points of view and don’t assume that a future you want will be wanted by all. (Jane McGonigal, Institute for the future)

One of the essential skills in foresight is the ability to articulate bold and provocative visions of the future. Why? Because such visions have the power to inspire substantial change and prepare us for profound disruptions, a necessity in addressing both the climate crisis and global instability.

While futurists advocate for making forecasts with a strong point of view, they also stress the importance of holding your opinions about the future lightly.

?What does that entail? To start, consider embracing 3 key principles when practicing to hold your opinions about the future lightly.

?? 1. Be open to hear other points of view. Recently, I came across a quote by Stephen R. Covey that resonated with me: "The biggest communication problem is that we do not listen to understand. We listen to reply." This insight perfectly captures the underlying tensions that often manifest in both professional and personal spheres. I've recognized that both I and my colleagues frequently fall into this pattern without even realizing it. In our genuine desire to resolve issues quickly, we often overlook the crucial step of truly listening. Our eagerness to provide solutions leads us to hastily formulate responses without taking the time to pause and absorb the other person's message. I find myself guilty of this behavior more often than I'd like to admit. Managing a propensity for low impulse control, I constantly find my thoughts racing ahead, both in contemplation and response. I understand that overcoming this habit requires practice, coupled with honing facilitation skills, particularly for those leading meetings or dialogues. It's a continuous journey of self-awareness and improvement, one that contributes not only to effective communication but also to fostering a more understanding and collaborative environment. One example of an exercise to help you take a step back and listen to other people's perspectives is called Freewrite to react to a future scenario (se details at the end of the article).

?? 2. Look for evidence that your predictions might be wrong. Examine potential indications that could challenge your predictions. While this may be a nuanced task, it essentially involves replicating the process of identifying signals and drivers. Instead of seeking signals that validate your hypothesis, reverse the approach by actively searching for signals that contradict or render your predictions implausible. Alternatively, explore signals that shed light on why the envisioned future appears unattainable within our current societal framework. Contemplate what circumstances would need to change to align with your bold and provocative vision. This exploration can furnish valuable insights to formulate an action plan—whether it involves realizing a desired future or ensuring the avoidance of an undesirable one.

?? 3. Don't assume a future you want will be wanted by all. This underscores the importance of exploring various scenarios, as outlined in article 5. By delving into four distinct scenarios, you can present a spectrum of potential futures for discussion. This approach demonstrates the diversity of possible outcomes, providing rich content for engaging in conversations about the desired future. Practising Hard empathy enhances this process. (se details at the end of the article).

Final words

As we reach the end of this seven-part series, my hope is that these articles aren't just ideas on a screen but practical tools in your toolkit. Let's imagine a future where the skills we've explored become second nature, guiding you and others through the twists and turns of what lies ahead. Let's apply these insights and actively shape the future we desire. In facing the uncertain future, heed Jane McGonigal's advice: "Hold your opinions about the future lightly." Embrace open-mindedness, evidence scrutiny, and diverse perspectives to enhance foresight and foster a collaborative environment for imaginative visions to thrive in our ever-evolving landscape of possibilities.

Exercises to Practice strong opinions:

?? Exercise 1: Use Hard Empathy - A Quick Guide to Hard Empathy

"Hard empathy is what we practice when we disagree with someone but still try to see that person's point of view and understand what life experiences led to it" (Jane McGonigal, Imaginable)

Empathy, the ability to understand and share the feelings of another, comes in two forms: Easy Empathy and Hard Empathy. Easy Empathy, often automatic, occurs when we relate to someone based on shared experiences. In contrast, Hard Empathy, a deliberate and conscious effort, involves understanding perspectives vastly different from our own. Using hard empathy will help you simulate what other people will think, feel and do in any possible future, so you can get better at planning futures that benefit all.

Why Hard Empathy Matters:

• Building Bridges: Connects us even in disagreement.
• Expanding Understanding: Broadens perspectives by acknowledging diverse realities.

Applying Hard Empathy:

1. Select a Scenario: Choose a real-world situation dramatically different from your experiences in the news or your social network.
2. Imagine a Shift: Picture your life aligned with the chosen situation without stepping into someone else's shoes. Stay exactly who you are and where you are.
3. Mental Simulation: Stay in your context but adjust the facts of your life mentally in line with the choosen situation.
4. Explore Choices and Actions: Ask questions like: What if it happened to you? What if your life were more like this other person’s? What choices would you make? What actions would you take?

?? Exercise 2: Freewrite to react to a future scenario

Freewriting means you write whatever comes to mind, quickly, without censoring or editing yourself. To harness this technique for a future scenario, set a precise five-minute timer. In this brief span, vividly detail your potential thoughts, emotions, and actions if the scenario were your reality. Immerse yourself in the narrative as though recounting a lived experience, ready to share specific details. Picture it as crafting a journal entry from the future, capturing impactful moments in your daily life. For example you can start with sentences such as:

"Today started with an unexpected twist..." or "Upon catching wind of the news, my immediate reflex was to dial my sister for advice..." or "Without a moment's hesitation, I was behind the wheel, racing to the store before the impending chaos..."

You can practice freewriting alone, but the magic happens when you freewrite with a partner or in a group. You can then swap stories and have a quick chat about any surprises or differences in your reactions.

Note: All the information in the article is sourced from Institute for the Future's courses Futures Thinking Specialization and Scenario Building and Jane McGonigal's book Imaginable.