?? Skill 2: Collect and analyze signals of change

Today, we delve into the second of the seven crucial future foresight skills. With the weekend on the horizon, this presents an excellent opportunity to immerse ourselves in the art of gathering signals of change. However, before we plunge into the realm of signals and the methods for gathering them, let's first address a common misconception about the essence of foresight.

Foresight?isn't?about?making?predictions.?It's?about?making?better?decisions in the present." Amy?Webb, NYU?School?of?Business

"No serious futurist deals in prediction,” wrote Alvin Toffler, futurist and author of the global best seller Future?Shock. “These are left for television oracles and newspaper astrologers.

So if it's not about predictions what is it and what's the point of it? Jane McGonigal describes futures thinking like this:

"At its best, futures thinking is not about predicting the future; rather, it is about engaging people in thinking deeply about complex issues, imagining new possibilities, connecting signals into larger patterns, connecting the past with the present and the future, and making better choices today. Futures thinking skills are essential for everyone to learn in order to better navigate their own lives and to make better decisions in the face of so many transformations in our basic technologies and organizational structures."

Ok so we can agree that foresight isn't about making predictions but a tool that should help us make better decisions. Better decisions for what and for whom you might think. This week I listened to an episode in the Swedish podcast Filosofiska rummet which appropriately had the title "Is the future already here". In the discussion about "what it the future" one of the guests, professor Jenny Andersson managed to both define the concept of future and at the same time illustrate how crucial it is for us to act now, rather than leaving it to "the future".

The future is indeed a consequence; it is the sum of everything we do and everything we don't do. So, the future is shaped by our actions but also by our inactions or our inability to act, and therefore, the concept of responsibility is closely linked to the future for me. However, it's also true that the future has its own existence; it can act upon us. In the climate issue, we can see how the future is getting closer and closer with each passing year and actually has a kind of agency that is growing in strength. Climate change is becoming more and more severe, and now it has the power to act against us.

As they pointed out in the podcast, we witnessed numerous signals of climate change's effects as early as 30 years ago. However, leaders worldwide chose to disregard these warning signs. Even today, when these signals have solidified into undeniable facts, Swedish politicians continue to turn a blind eye, going so far as to reduce taxes on fossil fuels this week.

Now, you might be wondering, what exactly constitutes a "signal," and where can you find them?

Let's address the first question: What is a signal? A signal can be described as a small or local innovation or disruption that has the potential to grow in scale and geographic distribution. To put it in more captivating terms, as Marina Gorbis eloquently phrases it:

A signal is a specific example of the future in the present.

As catchy as it might sound maybe not so helpful for anyone (like me) who had no clue what it meant to look for "examples of the future in the present". I found the following explanation a bit more helpful.

A signal of change is anything that is already happening today, that could be a clue to the future. A signal might be a new invention, product, business or behavour. A signal could be the first successful demonstration or a new techonology, or the first major breakdown of an old techology. A signal could be a new law, or a new kind of crime. A signal demonstrates how something could be different. A signal of change makes you say "A ha! That's new. That's weird. I haven't seen that before". It makes you curious to find out more.?

If we go on to adress the second question: Where can you find signals? Jane Mcgonical provided us with some excellent suggestions on where to find signals, how to keep track of them, what to do with a signal, and finally how to determine if it's a genuine signal.

1. Finding Signals:The primary technique is to do a Google search for "the future of X" for topics of interest. For example if you are interested in having an impact on the food system you can search for "Future of food". Signals can be found in various forms, such as videos, blog posts, podcasts, news articles, and scientific papers. Here are some examples that I've collected both from Jane, my own favourites and some suggestions from ChatGPT :). Specialized news sites: Science Daily and Medical Xpress, startup company news: Crunchbase News and GeekWire, newsletters: Harvard Business Review - The Future of Work FoodTech Weekly, Futurism, FTI’s annual Tech Trends Report, both websites and newsletter: WGSN, PSFK, The Guardian - Society Section Strategic Intelligence, websites: The Futures Centre, TrendWatching, Trend Hunter or follow futurists on social media such as Jane McGonical or my colleagues Annie Lindmark and Joakim Skog .
2. Collecting Signals: Engage with others by asking them about the weirdest or newest things they've come across, either on social media, through email, or in meetings. Encourage diverse perspectives and interests to expand your signal collection.
3. Interpret signals: To interpret your signal you can ask yourself these 4 questions: - What kind of change does this represent? From what to what?- What's driving this change? What's the "future force" behind it?- What might the world be like in 10 years if this signal gets bigger? If it's common and widespread?- Is this a future we want to help make?Rremember; a signal of change makes you say "A ha! That's new. That's weird. I haven't seen that before".
4. Keeping Track of Signals: Different methods can be used to organize signals, including databases, spreadsheets, browser bookmarks, or sending yourself emails with "signal" in the subject line. Setting up Google News alerts for specific signals helps keep you updated on developments. Regularly revisit and follow up on signals to stay informed about their progress or changes.

My colleague Joakim Skog often shows a very simple spreadsheet in excel and points out that the most important thing is to start! In order to do so just follow these few simple steps:

1. Collect a team around you
2. Add at least 3 signals per person every week.
3. Document them in your shared excel sheet
4. Discuss them in a digital chat or if you have a weekly meeting ask the one in charge of it if one point on the agenda could be to regularly share signals.
5. Review the experience of the exercise and highlight important takeaways. Remember, discussing the process of collecting signals and how it changes you and how you view the world is as important as discussing the signals themselves.

Before you know it you will see signals everywhere! Next time we will talk about what to do with these signals.

Note: All the information in the article is sourced from Institute for the Future's courses Futures Thinking Specialization and Scenario Building and Jane McGonigal's book Imaginable.