Your opinion needed : are graphs for flatten the curves skewed from reality?
Lucien Engelen
Health(care) strategy & digital transformation Maven. International Ambassador Nursing Innovation. (im)Patient. International keynote speaker. Makes things happen.
Help me with this one:
I think there is something wrong with the first graph you've seen spreading about 'flattening the curve'. Assuming that WITH interventions we could prevent running over HC's max capacity.
To me, that is a very skewed representation of reality. As healthcare's capacity in normal situation is also under pressure as we all know, and some of our daily work is focussed on, we'll never be able to stay UNDER max level of capacity.
Therefore IMHO the second graph represents more reality now, and in the upcoming weeks/months. How steep the peak will be is to see. but with what we know from Italy (one of the best HC systems in Lombardia) it will less likely be a small lift, but more of a peak. but way lower than without controls.
Do you agree ?
Chief Scientific Officer, Nextpoint
4 年It's an infographic, not a simulation output, as many have pointed out.? And it depends on how you define "healthcare system capacity".? If below that line means your local hospital has be an ICU bed available for everyone who needs it at the peak of the epidemic, then yes it's wildly optimistic (see the Imperial College simulation study).? If below the line means your local hospital is more or less functional, with medical professionals having a fighting chance of avoiding getting sick themselves, then perhaps its conveying the right impression.??
Director Customer Strategy & Digital Strategy at Monitor Deloitte | focused on building better and customer driven organizations
4 年The assumptions on which these graphs are based on are not listed which makes the graph difficult to value. E.g. it is not proven that people cannot get infected more than once (build immune). Also the incubation period is not known as well as the duration of the required treatment (important for capacity planning). The ideal scenario would be like the WHO states: testing, testing, testing. But unfortunately we currently live in a far from ideal world....
Professor Information Retrieval and Research Director of ICIS @ Radboud University
4 年My favourite infographic is this one:
Healthcare is becoming part of information technology.
4 年Difficult to say... I tend to think you are right Lucien Engelen, if the system was strained before the outbreak it will surely be strained in the outbreak. On the other hand: non urgent procedures are postponed, less traffic and less work will mean less accidents which helps but healthcare professionals falling ill counteracts. Predictions and models are all on thin ice now. As with any serious incident, I am afraid we can only live and learn for a next virus outbreak which will follow in the future (and that IS a certainty).