Skate To Where the Puck Is Going

Recently, I've taken some heat from the real estate community. I've been called a charlatan. A false prophet. Someone that "pretends to care" about my clients. All because I've been using the "R" word a lot. Truth be told, I've been talking about potential recession for about a year and a half, with a timeline for it hitting being end of 2019-into 2020. I think I was wrong. But only by a quarter or 2. The people throwing shade my way are telling me my opinion is politically driven . That the data (THEIR data) doesn't support it. That I'm trying to take advantage of people (hey dummies, when recession hits and people lose their jobs - I can't do mortgages for them, so that opinion makes no sense).

Thing is, I'm a hockey player. I've played my whole life, and like any kid growing up in the early 90's, I idolize a few players for their game (I specify their game, because I'm a huge believer in the "never meet your idols" theory) - none more than Wayne Gretzky (ok, Teemu Selanne and Jeremy Roenick are my all time faves, but they can't touch Gretzky on the GOAT scale). Gretzky is famous for a lot of things - the points, the Oilers dynasty, being a dynamo that transformed the game of hockey and exponentially grew it's popularity in the US. One thing he's just as famous for are his quotes. I have 2 favorites. One being "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take - Wayne Gretzky - Michael Scott". The other, when describing his hockey sense - "I always skated to where the puck was going to be, not where it was".

Gretzky knew it didn't matter where the puck was. He saw a play develop, saw an opportunity that was seconds away, took those seconds to prepare, and used them to create a play. He did this often enough to shatter all NHL scoring records in his career. I try to emulate Gretzky on the ice, and in the office. Jobs numbers look good. Consumer confidence is high. Spending is in full force. Debt is cheap and widely available. But I'm not worried about where the puck is. I'm worried about where it's headed.

Right now, I'm looking at the current market and thinking things look too good. Jobs have been too good for too long (did you know, with nearly ever recession in history, jobs reports were near their best?). Consumer spending and debt burdens are getting out of hand. Home values have appreciated beyond wage growth (did you know, also, that home appreciation is one area that tends to do really great in most recession?). Global yields are dismal. Do I have a crystal ball? No. But I do have some experience, some acumen into the economic climate, and a lot of interest in data and history.

My advice for the past year has been "get your house in order" (yes, pun intended). I expect home values to climb but more slowly. People for the most part have home equity. They also have a ton of debt. Take this window of opportunity to get rid of it, or consolidate it accordingly. Lessen your monthly burden. Put aside some savings. Focus on becoming financially secure.

None of us know for sure where the puck will end up, but I think I see where it's going. And that's where I'm skating.