Six Things 11.15.22

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"Micromorts": A New Way to Talk About Risks

Paul Carroll, Editor-in-Chief of ITL

A recent article in Wired surprised me with its pessimistic outlook about nuclear war in Europe. It said that one group of "superforecasters" put the likelihood of a nuclear weapon being detonated somewhere in Europe by April 30 of next year at 9.1%.?

While a detonation is a truly scary prospect, the article also conducted an analysis based on "micromorts." It says that a young person has a risk level of roughly one micromort per day -- one chance in a million of dying each day -- just by being alive. And the prospect of a nuclear detonation adds only one micromort per day to the risk for someone living in London, which is the same additional risk that comes from traveling 230 miles by car or six miles on a motorcycle. Going on a scuba diving trip adds five micromorts.?

?Now, insurers are in the business of quantifying risk all the time for all manner of activities, and I'm not sure that the concept of micromorts will change anything about underwriting, but it strikes me that micromorts could be a useful way to communicate to the public both about what is, and isn't, risky behavior.

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This Week's Thought Leadership Content:

• 3 Paths for Insurtechs in 2023
• Insurers Unprepared on Cyber Threats
• IT INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE RACE FOR TALENT : HOW INSURERS AND MGAS CAN ADAPT IN A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT
• New Cyber Threats Are Emerging
• Compliance on Cyber Is No Longer Enough
• Where Healthcare Value Can Lead
• Modernizing Insurance for the Digital Era
• WEBINAR: TURNING UNDERWRITING INSIDE OUT