Six Observations on Mexico's Historic Elections

At the invitation of the National Electoral Institute and Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary of Mexico, the Kofi Annan Foundation participated in the Foreign Visitors Program during the June 2024 federal elections. Our Special Advisor, Patrick Costello , participated in the program and shared six key observations on these historic elections.

Observation 1: The poorest rewarded AMLO's policies with their votes

This landslide is largely due to the popularity of the redistribution policies of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO's) government. While there has been no significant improvement in overall levels of inequality in the last six years, the minimum wage increased by 82%, and manufacturing wages rose by 27%. The poorest in the country duly turned out in numbers to reward these policies with their vote. Perhaps it is not entirely unrelated to this that the far right was non-existent in this election. When the economy delivers for people experiencing poverty, the siren songs of the far right have little traction.

When the economy delivers for the poor, the siren songs of the far right have little traction.

Observation 2: Women played a prominent role

The fact that the two lead presidential candidates were women was also reflected across the board in these elections, where electoral law prescribes gender parity in elected posts, and, a personal observation, in the two days of pre-electoral presentations by the electoral and judicial authorities to our group of international visitors, there was not one presentation in which women did not play a prominent role.

...there was not one presentation in which women did not play a prominent role

Observation 3: Electoral authorities delivered smooth elections

Before the polls, there had been questions about whether the election would be effectively run by the electoral authorities. The Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE), established as part of the constitutional reforms that dismantled the Institutional Revolutionary Party's (PRI) one-party rule in the 1990s, has faced down attempts by AMLO's government in recent years to clip its wings. An attempt to limit its constitutional powers failed by only one vote in the Supreme Court. This was followed by an important reduction of its budget. A new President has been appointed by Congress, and a number of its senior professionals have left without being replaced.

?It is a testament to the INE’s professionalism that the elections ran smoothly...These were, after all, the biggest elections ever run in Mexico.

Ultimately, it is a testament to the INE's professionalism that the elections ran smoothly across the country. These were, after all, the biggest elections ever run in Mexico, with more than 20,000 national and local posts being run for, the introduction of out-of-country voting and pilot schemes for electronic voting, and the mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of citizens to run around 170,000 polling stations around the country. Concerns about the late opening of many polling stations (at 10am, INE announced that only 50% of polling stations were open) and the large, resulting queues were allayed when it became clear that this was a better performance than in 2018. There were a few delays in the counting, and the initial projection of the result was issued later in the evening than expected. But these were minor issues compared to the scale of the accomplishment.

There remain, however, a number of unresolved concerns about this election.

Observation 4: Historic levels of violence

The levels of pre-electoral violence were unprecedented, with 231 killings, of whom 34 were candidates. The violence and intimidation extended to polling station volunteers, a number of whom pulled out in advance of the poll. Election day itself was largely peaceful, but presumably, the intended results of this violence by organised crime gangs in local areas had already been achieved by the time election day arrived. The unprecedented levels of violence and killings by organised crime in recent years (more than 30,000 killings/year for the last six years) will be one of the main challenges faced by the new administration.

The levels of pre-electoral violence were unprecedented, with 231 killings, of whom 34 were candidates.

Observation 5: The future of democratic institutions

The question of the future robustness of Mexico's democratic institutions remains open. The new Congress takes office one month before President Sheinbaum. AMLO has already been talking about using his last month in office to push a constitutional reform through the new Congress that would result in Supreme Court justices being elected by popular vote. It is an open question whether the new President will maintain the direction of her predecessor or demonstrate her independence once she is installed in the Presidency. Still, either way, her party shows no sign of distancing itself from AMLO's populist attacks on the institutions. Some observers also express concern that INE has not been willing to take on all perceived violations of electoral law by the government, notably the daily campaigning on state television by AMLO through his morning addresses.

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Observation 6: Platforms were left in charge of fighting disinformation

Finally, a word on disinformation and online manipulation. In the 2018 elections, INE were a pioneer in negotiating public agreements with the big platforms on both disinformation and campaign finance. On this occasion, they let the platforms themselves take the initiative in designing a response to disinformation. This partly reflects how much has changed globally, with technology evolving rapidly and AI enabling disinformation to an unprecedented extent (like during other elections around the world this year, many deepfakes were circulating on social media during the campaign in Mexico) and the platforms now recognising they need to act on this. Nevertheless, it is a pity that the INE did not break new ground this time by, for example, looking at what tools could be developed to counter these new disinformation techniques and using AI efficiently to detect disinformation and manipulative behaviours online.

Looking Forward

Mexico's successful transition to democracy and its robust electoral institutions have been a beacon over the years to countries around the world seeking examples of how to implement democratic reforms in practice. We must all do what we can to ensure they remain so.

Patrick Costello, a former European Union official and election observation expert, is a Senior Adviser for the Kofi Annan Foundation. Patrick has over 30 years of experience working in the European Parliament, European Commission and EEAS. Patrick is also a member of the advisory board of the European Partnership for Democracy (EPD) and Election-Watch.EU.