Six months (since the 7th October 2023)

I am not a military expert or strategist and my experience of the battlefield and tactics is very limited, so the following is based on my own observations and feelings and informed by what I have read online and elsewhere. I admit that I may be way off the mark but I cannot stay silent.

The war in Gaza is going nowhere. We are fighting terrorists in an area full of Palestinian civilians and aside from creating a humanitarian crisis which is taking an enormous toll on Israel's international reputation, we do not seem to be achieving very much. The hostages, those that are still alive, are still in Gaza and we do not seem to be capable of finding or rescuing them. The terrorists use women, children and others as human shields and we seem to fall into every trap they spring. Though Israel is allowing as much humanitarian aid to enter Gaza as is possible, it is not perceived in this manner by the world. The fact that Egypt has totally closed its border with Gaza does not seem to bother anyone, and all the blame for the suffering in Gaza is placed on Israel.

Over the past few weeks, missiles have again been fired at Israel from various locations in the Gaza Strip. Though these are in drips and drops, it shows that Hamas and Islamic Jihad are by no way defeated, weakened perhaps, but not beaten. It seems inevitable that we will continue to live with missiles being fired from Gaza into Israel unless there are new ideas or a re-thinking of current conceptions. Again, it seems that nothing is to be gained by any further military action of the sort we have witnessed over the past months.

From a layman's tactical viewpoint, I cannot understand why what is referred to as the Philadelphi Corridor (between Gaza and Egypt) was not a high priority target from the start of the war. It seems to me that by not taking control of it, Israel has been fighting the war with one hand tied behind its back. The corridor, above and below ground, allows for movement between Gaza and Sinai and it is possible that many of the terrorists, and perhaps even hostages, may have exited Gaza via this strip of land.

The north has become a stalemate, in the sense, that Israel seems unable or unwilling to change the balance of power and it is unclear what Hizbullah's end game is. In the meantime, tens of thousands of people cannot return to their homes with no end in sight. One does not have to be a military expert to know that a war with Hizbullah is a totally different kettle of fish to what is happening in Gaza. Hizbullah is a capable, heavily armed, and trained military force with greater resources than Hamas, yet we seem to be investing all our remaining energy and armaments in Gaza, rather than doing something about the situation on our northern border. It seems almost inevitable that some kind of military intervention will be necessary to resolve the impasse and allow people to return to their homes, but will there be the global political backing, military capabilities and forces to do the job after the quagmire that Gaza is becoming.

The political situation is also catastrophic. The government seems to be making every possible mistake internally and in its international relations. There is no other reasonable way to explain what is going on other than Netanyahu putting his own political survival ahead of what is right for the country. Gantz, along with Eisenkot who must be shell-shocked after having lost his son in the conflict, have lost the plot and they seem incapable of seeing the larger picture, preferring instead to focus on the micro, rather than the macro. Their continued presence in the government is an embarrassment and does not give much confidence in Gantz's political acumen nor bode well for coalition negotiations following the, hopefully, not too distant elections.

?Israel is losing all international support including from its most important ally, the USA, and with the elections looming there, and a comeback for Trump on the cards, it is hard to know where we will stand come November. The rising number of casualties amongst the Palestinians (whether we like it or not, the numbers put out by the Hamas are accepted at face value in many places) and stupid mistakes that kill aid-workers, journalists and other innocent bystanders, is de-legitimising Israel's claim that it fighting a just war and puts a severe dent in Israel's claim that the IDF is a moral army. Any credibility Israel had is going out the window and there is not much sympathy for Israel worldwide except perhaps in Micronesia.

While more people are taking to the streets in protest, both at the lack of progress with a deal for freeing the hostages and against the government, there is no real chance of bringing down the government unless some of the 64 defect or re-discover their moral compass. There are also no clear leaders of the renewed protest and no viable political alternatives are emerging. The messages at the demonstrations are also mixed though the rather brutal police response seems to indicate that they know who they supposedly answer to.

In my opinion, we have nothing to gain and everything to lose by entering Rafah. If we knew for certain that the Hamas leadership was there and not moving underground through the myriad tunnels spread all over Gaza, then there might be a point. But we do not seem to control the tunnels or the movements of the terrorists and their leadership; the hostages, those still alive, are probably being moved the same way and therefore their location is impossible to ascertain. The civilian population (however that is defined) will sustain enormous losses and will only add to Israel's increasingly negative reputation in the world and its isolation. The calls for arms embargoes and for Israel to be censored in the UN will only grow and we will have nothing to show for it. The Israeli casualties will be high, and again, it is unclear what will be gained. The only people who might benefit from the incursion into Rafah will be Bibi Netanyahu and his cronies, who will spin the events into reasons why there can be no elections whilst the war continues.

The IDF should pull back to the Israeli border with the strict proviso that Israel preserves the right to act at any time it feels necessary in Gaza in order to make sure that its borders are secure. Israel should also announce that it is setting up a safety zone within Gaza along the border and that anyone who crosses this line becomes a legitimate target.? At the same time, Israel must allow and facilitate the continual flow of international aid into Gaza. This will allow Israel to improve its international standing whilst still giving it freedom of action in Gaza. It does not seem likely that further military action of the sort happening now will achieve the stated aims of killing the leaders of Hamas and releasing the remaining hostages. Both objectives will only be achieved by the gathering of high-quality intelligence, and this, I presume, can now be done again from outside of Gaza. It is also not beyond the realms of possibility that there will be a strong backlash against Hamas in Gaza from the "civilian" population and this might provide more opportunities and information? for precision strikes and military operations against Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Leaving Gaza now will also diminish the risk of a large military confrontation in the north and will leave some room for diplomatic solutions. It seems pretty clear, unless they are pulling the wool over our eyes, that Hizbullah itself and its Iranian patrons are not interested in a? full-blown conflagration at this time, and might be looking for ways to stand down, and leaving Gaza could provide the needed impetus to calm things down in the north.

The only fly in the ointment seems to be Netanyahu and his coalition. The former has no political interest in ending the war as the call for elections will become very hard to ignore and there is a distinct possibility that the far-right will leave the government because of what they perceive to be a failure to achieve their objectives (which seem to include re-establishing Gush Katif). However, it is possible that this inept government will also collapse because of the Haredim who are worried about the loss of income from our taxes that sustains their power and the call to enlist in the army. That is going to be a very tough nut to crack for Netanyahu as the events of the 7th October and the ongoing war have clarified that the status quo with the Haredim can no longer continue or be sustained.

Six months since the 7th October and the memory of what happened on that terrible day is fading in light of current events. The world has forgotten why this all started and we have lost much of the sympathy, support, and legitimacy that we had in the days and weeks after the massacre. Israel cannot continue its present path as it is one that will lead to devastation and isolation and will not allow it to achieve its stated goals. We must free ourselves from our current leadership so that, perhaps, a new government will bring new ideas for a brighter future for our country.

Free the hostages now!