Singapore's Shipping Future: From a Singaporean Futurist

History

Singapore was formally founded as a trading post by the British in the year 1819. Yet, going as far back as the 2nd century, it has been identified in the pages of history as a port city or port settlement. Key here, is a port. Naturally, the key industry and the hallmark industry for the island city state, has been the shipping industry. After all, Singapore connects the east with the west, by sea.

Going as far back as the late 1600s, Thailand has considered the construction of the Kra Canal, something like the Suez canal, connecting east and west, which would allow Maritime vessels to bypass the straits where Singapore is situated in a strategic location and position, making it a strategic or rather a vital port of call, for refuelling, repair, redistribution of goods, etc. If that bypassing becomes possible, the importance of Singapore as a port declines, and that is a threat, naturally, to the local shipping industry, because its advantageous position as an entrep?t is lost, somewhat. Good news is, Singapore is fast developing as a key aviation and aerospace hub. Good alternative there.

Latest estimates for the Kra Canal feasibility feature 10 years to construct, with a cost of US$20 Billion in present monetary terms.

Present

Decline in oil prices have forced oil & gas businesses to cut operations, move their businesses out of Singapore or even shut. Shipping, is hit, in Singapore.

Goods are moving more slowly thanks to the latest economic slump worldwide that no one is yet outright vocalising, but its after all the job of a Futurist to do, so I say it. Shipping, is hit, in Singapore.

With the advent of alternative sustainable energy sources, which are very much necessary for the longer term preservation of the human species, the value of oil & gas, its exploration and extraction in the region, and Singapore's role in supporting the industry around it, will decline. Gradually, ultimately. Something that will eventually be forgone, for the shipping industry, in the country.

As almost everything from undergarments to food to construction material is imported into Singapore, the port industry itself will always flourish. With land scarcity, if there is stuff the country is not using, it is going to be shipped off to another part of the world, so again, the port industry, will continue to gain. As for the shipping industry, the risk and threat is now very real, that in the very long term, that pretty much sums up its opportunities. I mean, if the Kra Canal is built, so much of import and export is going aerial, there isn't much fuel to move about, than the traffic will decline in Singapore's direction, and I mean the goods moving from east to west and vice-versa rather than vessels, but then, with the goods, the vessels too. You get what I mean.

Future

However, while oil & gas is something the country's shipping industry can forget about relying on in the long term, it can take solace in that the Kra Canal may actually never be built. I will withhold the reasoning here. Hey, I can't give everything away for free now can I?

3D-Printing is a threat to the import and export of items because it takes away the need for distribution and collection of parts and goods from different locations, or export from manufacturing points.

Umpteen types of goods not traded as frequently since 2015, and will not be trading as much as they are being traded in as of 2016 until 2018 to 2020, will eventually see a pick-up, and then a post-turmoil boom. Its a cycle. So those shipping companies unable to repay their creditors in the 2016-2017 period, if given time, can afford those creditors a fair recovery. And no I am not being paid by a shipping association to say this.

And even if a Kra Canal is built, until it is built, east and west remain connected by sea, via Singapore, and there still is time, for the shipping industry in the country to capitalise upon. Then again, lets reiterate, that such a canal, may never ever actually be built. I repeat, I can't give everything away for free now, can I?

Even if, in an extreme scenario, the shipping of goods through and the entrep?t status of the country diminishes to zero, assuming, the very worst extreme possibility out of science fiction lets say, Singapore will remain a trusted and reliable source for ship building and repair services for a long time beyond that, which current players in shipping based in the country can diversify into or look to support. Maybe they could also divest their interests in container vessels in such a situation and invest in yachts, because hey, the waters around the island nation do make for a yachting paradise yet untapped and unexplored.

The country does have the potential to be a major tourism destination of choice for travellers around the globe, in the very long term, in terms of decades, and if Singapore continues to work on that potential, the shipping operators can switch focus to cruise services out of the the country.

Harish Shah is Singapore's first local born Professional Futurist and a Management Strategy Consultant. He runs Stratserv Consultancy. His areas of consulting include Strategic Foresight, Systems Thinking, Scenario Planning and Organisational Future Proofing.