Will Singapore live to its 100th birthday?

Will Singapore live to its 100th birthday? This sombre notion struck me while I was reading "The Future of Geography: How Power and Politics in Space Will Change Our World" by Tim Marshall, a New York Times bestselling author and leading geopolitics expert, and "Can Singapore Survive" by Kishore Mahbubani, former Singapore Permanent Representative to the United Nations.

One common thread in both books was how prominent port cities like Athens, Venice and Malacca faded into the dusty annals of history and known today only as mere stopovers for curious tourists. Since the similarities with Singapore are striking, I investigated what happened to these cities to see if Singapore would end up with a similar fate.

Part 1: Why did they fail?

Athens: Vulnerable to Takeover Due to Its Strategic Position

Thousands of years ago, long before Greece became the poor man of Europe, Athens was a formidable power renowned for its intellectual prowess. It nurtured great thinkers like Aristotle in philosophy, Hippocrates in medicine, and Pythagoras in mathematics. Like Singapore, Athens thrived as a bustling port city due to its strategic location along major sea routes, facilitating trade between Europe and the East. Positioned at the mouth of the Black Sea, Athens wielded control over the Aegean and Mediterranean. Because Athens controlled the Mediterranean coastlines, it controlled the sea. Because it controlled the sea - including ports, access points, and markets - it controlled the continent.

However, Athens’s strategic location caught the covetous stares of many major powers. Greece was a strategic prize for the Romans, Byzantines, Ottomans, British, and Russians who vied for control over the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean. Unfortunately, Athens could not stand up to these major powers because of its reliance on a mercenary force (which was less loyal), outdated military equipment, and inferior battle tactics. Conquered first by Rome, then by the Ottoman Turks and British, Athens fell into a cycle of decline and stagnation from which it struggled to recover, ultimately losing its once-prominent status.

Venice: Faded into irrelevance due to its inability to adapt to shifting geopolitics and technology

Venice thrived as a bustling port city due to its strategic position as the primary gateway for Eastern goods into European markets. Positioned at the terminus of the key trade route from Asia, spices and goods from the East would arrive at Venice port before being distributed westwards across Europe. This intermediary role not only brought immense wealth to Venice but also afforded it significant political leverage over larger powers.

However, Venice's decline was precipitated by the emergence of alternative trade routes, through the Atlantic around Africa, which bypassed the old routes dominated by Venice. As a result, Venice lost the role of Europe’s entrep?t. The Mediterranean once dominated by Venice was relegated to a regional sea while the bulk of European trade moved to the oceans. Venice could not compete in the open seas as she failed to modernize its naval force. Her ships were not outfitted for long sea voyages, and was not seaworthy in rough oceanic waters. https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/digital/rise-and-fall-of-venice/ The city's inability to adapt to these changes in geopolitics and technology ultimately led to its fading into irrelevance.?

Malacca: Unable to Stand Out Among its Competitors

Malacca thrived as a bustling port city under Portuguese rule for two centuries. Located midpoint between South Asia and China, merchants realized that it was easier and quicker to simply exchange goods with each other at Malacca, rather than travel the full distance. Stopping at Malacca thus became popular, for merchants could cut their journey from two years to six months.

However, Malacca's decline commenced after it fell into Dutch hands. Instead of fostering its development, the Dutch relegated Malacca to the status of a feeder port to Batavia (Jakarta), their primary port of interest. Similarly, when the British took control, they maintained Malacca's subordinate role, preferring instead to rely on established ports like Singapore and Georgetown gaining prominence. In both cases, both colonial powers held Malacca only to prevent it from falling into enemies’ hands. As a result, Malacca lacked the necessary development and distinction from its competitors. This relegation to a secondary port, coupled with its failure to offer a unique value proposition, led to its eventual decline into obscurity.

Part 2: Would Singapore fail?

Reflecting on the experiences of Athens, Venice, and Malacca, I believe we are witnessing early indications of similar challenges emerging in Singapore.

Factor 1: Singapore Draws Covetous Attention Due to Its Strategic Position

Singapore's strategic location has always been highly sought after. Positioned at the narrow passage of the Straits of Malacca, a critical sea route linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, it significantly reduces travel distances between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. This makes Singapore a crucial hub for transporting hydrocarbons, containers, and bulk cargo. In 2016 alone, the Strait facilitated the transportation of approximately 16 million barrels of crude oil and 3.2 million barrels of liquefied natural gas (LNG) daily, ranking second globally in terms of volume after the Strait of Hormuz. https://warsawinstitute.org/china-malacca-dilemma/ ??

China holds a keen interest in Singapore due to its heavy reliance on hydrocarbon imports, with over 70% of its petroleum and LNG exports passing through the Strait of Malacca. China also relies on the Straits of Malacca for trade. Combined with the South China Sea, both sea lanes collectively facilitate about 20% of global maritime trade and 60% of China’s trade flows, underscoring its paramount importance for the Chinese economy. https://warsawinstitute.org/china-malacca-dilemma/

The key barrier preventing China from taking over Singapore is the Pax Americana, a global security framework where the United States utilizes its military and economic might to maintain stability and deter aggressive actions worldwide. This system serves as a deterrent to China's potential aggression, as any such actions could trigger a response from the United States, which has the capability to intervene and safeguard its allies and interests in the region. However, recent events have raised doubts about the reliability of this system, as it did not fully come into effect in certain instances. For example, the US did not take decisive action against Russia after it invaded parts of Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine, likely due to concerns about triggering a broader conflict with Russia, a nuclear power. Moreover, the Pax Americana may not be as robust as it once was, particularly as China emerges as a formidable challenger to US dominance. If Pax China rises to prominence in the future, there may be little to prevent China from asserting control over Singapore or the critical shipping routes in the region.

Factor 2: Risk of Losing Relevance Due to Emerging Northern Sea Route and Inactivity in Space Exploration

New shipping routes, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), pose a significant threat to the traditional maritime passage through the Malacca Strait, over which Singapore holds considerable influence and control. The NSR, traversing the Arctic, offers a substantially shorter and potentially cheaper alternative route for trade between Europe and East Asia compared to the longer route passing through the Malacca Strait. The NSR route is just 13,000 km long, compared to the 21,000 km covered by the Suez Canal route, which reduces the travel duration from one month to less than two weeks. Historically challenged by sea ice and political restrictions, the NSR is gaining traction due to economic growth in East Asia, particularly China's interest in the region, and the melting of the ice cap. Some predictions even suggest the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer by the end of the century, raising questions about Singapore's continued relevance as a key maritime hub.

Singapore leaders are worried about this. PM Lee Hsien Loong himself made mention of this in 2014 at the NUSS 60th Anniversary Lecture. "The climate is changing and the Arctic Ocean is melting. New sailing routes are opening up, the North-east Passage via the Arctic Ocean from Europe to the Far East. Not all the ships will go there but some will and bypass Singapore and PSA." Acknowledging this shift, Singapore is taking steps to adapt. In 2020, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Sam Tan recognized the commercial potential of the NSR and emphasized Singapore's need to enhance its competitiveness. Initiatives like the Tuas mega port, equipped with artificial intelligence and automation, aim to bolster efficiency and maintain Singapore's status as a key shipping hub in Southeast Asia. However, while Singapore sees opportunities in infrastructure projects related to the NSR, such as building icebreakers and equipment for Arctic oil and gas extraction, these efforts may not suffice to offset the looming threat to its maritime dominance.

Another emerging factor that could potentially render Singapore obsolete is the realm of space. Space exploration is the next frontier of human endeavour. Low Earth orbit (LEO) is becoming increasingly vital for various purposes. Apart from hosting satellites, LEO also serves as a crucial refuelling station for spacecraft aiming to venture beyond the moon. Controlling this orbital corridor could allow a single powerful entity to act as a gatekeeper, hindering rivals' ability to refuel and explore further into space. Control over LEO translates to dominance over near-earth space, thereby shaping the future of space exploration and human progress.

Despite its growing importance, Singapore's current stance towards space exploration appears lackluster. While other nations are investing heavily in space-related initiatives and infrastructure, Singapore seems to have done little in comparison. This raises concerns about whether Singapore risks mirroring Venice's decline due to its failure to adapt to changing geopolitics and technology.

Sidenote: Regarding space exploration, Singapore should adopt the same enterprising and inquisitive spirit that she exhibited in the early 2010s. A Reddit commenter claimed to have seen Temasek officers were vigorously engrossed and taking notes at a blockchain conference long before cryptocurrencies gained mainstream recognition.

Factor 3: Singapore's Unique Positioning Among Competitors

This factor provides some solace for Singapore. Unlike the failed port cities mentioned earlier, Singapore has managed to carve out a distinct position among its competitors. We can continue to serve as an intermediary between major political powers, leveraging our unique blend of Western and Asian heritage. Notably, Deng Xiaoping trusted Lee Kuan Yew and often relied on him to convey messages to Taiwanese and American leaders, highlighting Singapore's diplomatic credibility. This role is increasingly crucial as tensions escalate between China and America, both of whom seek an honest broker. While this role was more pronounced during the tenure of Lee Kuan Yew, the question remains whether Singapore can offer another leader trusted by both nations to maintain its status as a trusted intermediary and continue to play a significant diplomatic role.

Singapore remains a prominent financial hub in Asia, with its lead over Hong Kong widening. The recent exodus of expatriates from Hong Kong due to stringent COVID-19 measures has further bolstered Singapore's appeal. As more companies consider relocating from Hong Kong, Singapore stands ready to become the preferred destination for their Asian headquarters. However, despite these favorable conditions, Singapore must remain vigilant, as other regional markets such as Shanghai, Tokyo, and Seoul are rapidly expanding their financial sectors and could potentially challenge Singapore's dominance.

Singapore continues to be one of the preferred destinations for Asian High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) due to our bilingual culture. Figures like Jet Li and Cecilia Cheung have highlighted this aspect as a reason for choosing to relocate to the city-state. However, the sustainability of this advantage is now uncertain. Despite offering bilingual education, there are growing concerns about the erosion of our bilingualism. Younger generations are already facing challenges in mastering both English and Mandarin. We speak both languages only to the extent that we adopt Chinese grammar and substitute with English vocabulary, resulting in a mixture that compromises proficiency in both. This decline in language proficiency may deter future HNWIs from selecting Singapore as their destination, particularly with viable alternatives like Switzerland and Australia available. Given Singapore's heavy reliance on HNWIs for its economy, any shift in their preferences could have significant implications for the country's economic landscape.

Uncertainties Surrounding Singapore's Future

Lee Kuan Yew's insightful words encapsulate my sentiments perfectly: "When I project myself forward 100 years for Singapore, I cannot tell you that it will exist." Despite our historical advantages—strategic location, economic prowess, and bilingualism—Singapore's future remains uncertain. Emerging challenges such as shifting geopolitical dynamics, technological advancements, and evolving global trends present formidable obstacles, and we would be rendered obsolete if we become complacent and stop trying to keep up with them.

As Singaporeans, it's important for all of us to take action and work together for our country's well-being. Instead of being lazy or only caring about ourselves, we need to look at Singapore's future in a big picture way and do our part to help it grow and stay strong. This means supporting policies and actions that help everyone in Singapore, and not just asking for help when things get tough. By working together, we can make sure Singapore lasts for many more years to come.

The text provided was composed by me with assistance from ChatGPT for copyediting and simplification.