Simplicity vs over-optimization in the pursuit of robustness

Simplicity vs over-optimization in the pursuit of robustness

My most effective equity system is also my simplest. It fits onto just two sides of an A4 sheet. This system avoids curve fitting and over-optimization, focusing instead on exploiting straightforward market principles.

For those interested, here is an outline of these two pages:

  1. System Objective and Rationale
  2. Technical Analysis Layout
  3. Situational Awareness
  4. Stock Universe
  5. Primary Technical Indicator
  6. Entries and Re-entries
  7. Position Sizing Algorithm
  8. Pyramiding Tactics
  9. Exits and Stop Management
  10. Emergency Stops
  11. Trade Selection with High Opportunity Factor and Fundamental Filters

Below, I illustrate the above system's technical layout.

Whenever I see a system with an ultra-smooth equity curve, I immediately suspect curve fitting. Such systems are fragile and prone to failure. Below is the equity curve of a curve-fitted system which clearly fails when it goes live i.e. over-optimization is to be avoided at all costs.

Curve fitting is not recommended!




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