A Simple Decision Framework

DECISIONS - we make these every living moment of our lives. Most decisions are trivial enough to not even register in our consciousness e.g. when we snooze the alarm clock to grab an extra few minutes of sleep in the morning, or we choose between a latte or hot chocolate at the local coffee shop. We are making decisions - consciously and more often unconsciously - between competing choices. I am making a conscious decision to write and share my thoughts on this topic against my alternate choice of doing mundane weekend chores of visiting Costco or going for a car wash. Right this moment, you are making a conscious decision to invest your time in reading this article instead of doing whatever else that you intended to do with your time.

The present state of our lives is an aggregate summation of every decision - big or small - that we have made, right up to this very moment. While there are many fancy decision frameworks that one can learn from graduate management programs, application of these in every day life is often cumbersome and tedious. The purpose of this article is to present a practical and simple decision framework that we can use for all our decision making process in all - personal and professional - situations.

At its very core, this simplified framework classifies all decisions into two broad categories: 1) two-way door decisions; and 2) one-way door decisions. By definition, two-way door decisions imply one can easily walk back on the decision with little or no cost of reversing one's?decision. On the other hand, one-way door decisions involve high cost e.g. choice of college and major by high schoolers. In some extreme cases, these decisions could prove to be irreversible e.g. choice of a spouse or starting a family.

Irrespective of the decision type above, one of the foundational piece of this simplified framework involves writing (in long-form narrative format). The process starts by writing down the problem statement, existing constraints, choices and options available, and successful outcomes with a recommendation. The write-up can be formal or informal in tone but it is essential that it is comprehensive and captures all perspectives at play. This is called analysis through writing. The very act of writing forces us to slow down, ponder over conceivable paths, and document an objective analysis of every option available.

Another aspect of this simplified framework involves soliciting input. The key is to not only write down all plausible choices but also to seek inputs from others to validate your approach and line of thinking. More often than not, we are biased and have blind-spots that we are not even aware of. We want to seek input and counsel?from a broad variety of people to fill these blind-spots, so that we can make the?most informed decision. In fact, one should intentionally seek inputs from people who are more likely to disconfirm our beliefs. Occasionally, this could result in us adopting a choice different from our original preferred option. On the other hand and at best, evaluation of alternate options could further enhance our conviction towards the original preferred option.

While it is important that we evaluate all options available, we also have to be conscious about not overwhelming ourselves with too many options. Too many options and we can easily fall into the trap of 'analysis paralysis' whereby we bog ourselves down with too many variables and too much input thereby freezing (or delaying) the decision indefinitely. Ideally, we want to strike a right balance between collecting just the right amount of input (data) to make the most optimal decision. ?

Two-Way Door Decisions

Most of the time, our decisions are two-way doors (you can easily walk back on the decision) with little to no cost of reversing our?decision. One should recognize such decisions and err on the side of making a quick decision (Bias for action ergo speed) accepting the risks of having to change your decision,?if needed. If proven wrong, one should accept the mistake, rectify errors, and change course based on the learnings (embrace failure; fail fast and learn; and change course quickly).?

One-Way Door Decisions

At times, we are forced to make one-way door decisions. By definition, these decisions have huge implications (on the trajectory of our career and our lives) with high cost of reversing and changing and in some extreme?cases?no recourse of reversal. We should recognize such decisions and deliberately weigh all plausible options while seeking varied inputs. Here speed (of your decision) is not as important as getting it right is. For such decisions, we need to weigh the pros and cons of all viable choices/options, and make a decision that maximizes the likelihood of success. At worst, the lower bar of such an intentional decision needs to be to minimize regret.

While it may sound complicated but once we start using such a simplified decision framework and develop the necessary muscles (thinking prowess), we realize not only the benefit of (more) sound decisions but also the clarity that comes with it. The entire process is built to filter noise; declutter?our minds; and generate clarity of thought.?