Silver headwinds, 2025 edition

I noticed the term "headwinds" getting used a lot in 2024. It is a curious expression. Mainly it is used to refer to factors that are preventing forward progress - or at least slowing it down. Yet as anyone who has ridden a bicycle down a steep hill can confirm, forward motion is often itself a producer of stronger headwinds.

For this last newsletter of 2024, I hope to look past the headline-grabbing headwinds and focus on the forward acceleration that may have gotten buried.

Story #1 - Solar power expansion continued to grow - much faster than expected.

There were some rather depressing news stories in 2024 about legacy fossil fuels, including this year's COP president announcing expanded production in his country and the new U.S. energy secretary claiming we "simply don’t have meaningful substitutes for oil, gas and coal today.”

The winds may have gotten louder, but not more effective in slowing progress in the energy transition.

This reality was most obvious in solar power. The graphic below, from an Economist article earlier this year, illustrates just how much faster solar adoption (black line) continued to accelerate beyond what was predicted (yellow lines).

While global treaties and public attention have helped, the main driver has been simple economics: over the past ten years, the cost of solar power has dropped by about two-thirds, and is now just a bit more than half the cost of coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. Wright's Law suggests that as capacity continues to increase, costs will continue to decrease as well.

Going forward, these economic realities should continue to make pro-fossil fuel arguments more difficult, and investment funds more scarce.

Story #2 - Concern about plastics went mainstream

In 2024, incumbent interests successfully blocked ratification of a United Nations plastics pollution treaty - for the time being. But the conversation has gone far beyond environmentalists and politicians, with momentum continuing to grow. World Wildlife Fund research conducted earlier this year concluded that the overwhelming majority (85%) of U.S. adults think that plastic waste pollution is a "serious and concerning problem that requires immediate political action to solve," and the proportion is even higher outside the U.S., according to research by 益普索 .

Beyond plastics, awareness is also growing about the need for producers to take broader responsibility for the waste streams their products create. Starting in 2025, EU Member States will be required to establish separate collection systems for used textiles. The U.S. state of California goes even further, requiring clothing manufacturers to fund re-use and repair programs.

Story #3 - Legal rights for healthy environments continued to expand

There were also many stories in 2024 involving the expansion of healthy environment rights. In Europe, the EU Parliament voted to criminalize ecosystem destruction, meaning it will become law in all member nations within two years. Here in the U.S., activists successfully sued the State of Montana on behalf of the young people whose health stands to be disproportionately affected by a compromised climate.

There were also encouraging stories about rights received by the natural environment itself. Research on the Los Cedros in Ecuador revealed that granting it personhood in 2021 has successfully protected its role in preserving biodiversity.

Looking across all these stories, the fundamental challenges seem less about trajectory, and more about velocity. Said differently: we are still getting there - and we'd still be a lot better off getting there a lot faster.

Recent items of interest

• [research] - Evidence-based new years' resolutions. If you are in the market for personal 2025 goals, be sure to check out the new Decarbonize your Life guide from Heatmap News . The Guide offers thoroughly-researched estimates of how big an impact individual changes can make - including transportation, home efficiency and dietary choices. (Don't want to go vegan? Simply switching from beef to chicken will give you 85% of the emissions impact of a more extreme dietary change.)

Upcoming events/deadlines

• [call for abstracts] - World Hospital Congress. (Accepted until Feb 28, 2025). The World Hospital Congress 2025 will take place Nov. 10-12 at the International Conference Centre in Geneva, Switzerland. The program will once again feature an entire track on Environmentally sustainable, resilient, and low-carbon healthcare. Abstracts can be submitted here.
• [call for research] - Seeking submissions on Planetary Health Leadership. (Accepted Jan 1 - March 30, 2024). BMJ Leader is issuing this call to begin building an evidence base for what it really means to lead with people and planet in mind. More information is available here; you can also read the editorial Rammina Yassaie and I wrote for context here.
• [workshop] - Unlocking Leadership Skills for Resilient and Lower-Carbon Healthcare (March 23, Houston, TX, ACHE Congress). Successful sustainability programs can yield numerous dividends - including financial savings, talent attraction and enhanced employee engagement, as well as supporting health equity goals. To learn more, join us for this full-day session with a kick-off from Dr. Jonathan Perlin, CEO of the Joint Commission. More information and registration is available here.

Is there news from 2024 you'd like to lift up? Or a 2025 goal you'd like to share? I'd love to hear about them in the comments. Thank you for reading, and your help healing our future.

Andy Garman