Silicon’s Last Stand: The Rise of Quantum

The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of innovation since the 1940s, has reached its peak. As Moore’s Law slows, the spotlight turns to the next frontier: the rise of quantum computing—a revolution that will redefine what's possible.

We are witnessing a historic transformation. The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of innovation since the 1940s, has reached its peak. While companies like ASML and TSMC remain critical for now, and Broadcom continues to build the 5G infrastructure that powers our digital highways, the future is shifting. As Moore’s Law slows, the spotlight turns to the next frontier: the rise of quantum computing—a revolution that will redefine what's possible.

In the 1940s, the world witnessed the birth of a technology that would change everything: semiconductors. From the first transistors to the chips powering our AI-driven world, semiconductors have fueled the exponential growth of innovation. For over 80 years, they’ve been the backbone of modern life, quietly enabling the devices and systems we now take for granted.

But here’s the thing: we are now at the peak of the semiconductor era. The incredible progress that began in the 20th century is hitting its limits in the 21st. What got us here won’t get us there. And the industry, much like the world it powers, is facing a crossroads.

The Golden Age of Semiconductors

Right now, semiconductors dominate global competition like never before. We see a world divided by the players who hold the keys to this industry’s success.

ASML: The Dutch company with a monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography. Without ASML, companies like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung cannot manufacture the chips that make AI, 5G, and supercomputing possible.

TSMC: The crown jewel of chip manufacturing, controlling more than 50% of the global market. Their cutting-edge 2-nanometer chips represent the culmination of decades of technological mastery.

Broadcom vs. Huawei: The battle for 5G infrastructure has become the new arms race. Broadcom leads in creating the components that enable faster, more reliable networks, while Huawei represents China’s ambitions to dominate the global 5G market.

This is the pinnacle of the semiconductor age. The stakes are higher than ever, with geopolitical tensions turning these technologies into symbols of national power. ASML is at the center of trade wars, TSMC’s dominance depends on Taiwan’s stability, and 5G networks are the new trade routes of the digital world.

But here’s the challenge: we’re nearing the end of this road.

The Limits of Semiconductors

For decades, the industry has relied on Moore’s Law, the idea that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every two years. This exponential growth has driven everything from faster smartphones to smarter AI. But now, Moore’s Law is breaking down.

Why Moore’s Law is Ending

The Physical Ceiling: At 2 nanometers, we’re approaching atomic scales. Transistors this small face quantum effects like electron tunneling, which makes them unreliable.

The Economic Wall: Developing and manufacturing chips at these scales has become so expensive that only a handful of companies, like TSMC and Samsung, can afford to compete.

Outdated Logic: The entire semiconductor industry is built on Boolean algebra, a 19th-century invention. It’s reliable for binary computing but struggles with the complexity of today’s problems.

We’ve reached the peak of what semiconductors can do. The next big leap won’t come from squeezing more out of silicon—it will come from rethinking how we compute entirely.

The Dawn of Quantum Computing

As semiconductors approach their limits, a new era is dawning: quantum computing. This isn’t just an evolution of computing; it’s a revolution.

What Makes Quantum Computing Different?

Quantum computers are built on the principles of quantum mechanics, and they fundamentally break the rules of classical computing.

Superposition: Unlike bits, which are either 0 or 1, qubits can be both at the same time. This allows quantum computers to process vast amounts of data simultaneously.

Entanglement: Qubits can become “entangled,” meaning the state of one affects the state of another, no matter how far apart they are. This creates unparalleled computational efficiency.

Quantum Tunneling: Quantum computers can bypass the barriers that classical systems face, solving problems in optimization, cryptography, and simulation that are otherwise impossible.

Who’s Leading the Charge?

The race for quantum supremacy is heating up, and it mirrors the semiconductor competition of the 20th century:

Google: Achieved “quantum supremacy” in 2019 by solving a problem no classical computer could.

IBM: Building scalable quantum systems aimed at practical, commercial use.

China: Heavily investing in quantum research to lead in applications like encryption and logistics.

This isn’t just a technological race; it’s a geopolitical one. Quantum computing will redefine industries, national security, and even global power structures.

The Shift from Peak to Dawn

We are witnessing a historic transformation. The semiconductor industry, a cornerstone of innovation since the 1940s, has reached its peak. While companies like ASML and TSMC remain critical for now, and Broadcom continues to build the 5G infrastructure that powers our digital highways, the future is shifting. As Moore’s Law slows, the spotlight turns to the next frontier: the rise of quantum computing—a revolution that will redefine what's possible.

This isn’t just a technological shift—it’s a human one. The companies and nations that master this transition won’t just lead industries; they’ll shape the future of humanity. Because as we stand at the peak of semiconductors, we must remember: the peak is not the end. It’s the beginning of something new. And that something is quantum.

At Macrowise, we believe wealth is created by seeing what others miss—connecting the dots and investing with a vision that captures the bigger picture.

Thanks for reading ,?

Guillermo Valencia A

Cofounder of Macrowise?

November 18th , 2024?