- Hot off the press — the Fed’s H.4.1 report shows early encouraging signs of stabilization?in the US banking situation. Borrowing at the Fed’s facilities (Discount Window + BTFP) were little changed in the week at $164B. Furthermore, most of the increase in borrowing appeared to be largely accounted for by First Republic Bank and PacWest given their public disclosures over the past week. A +$42bln rise in BTFP was matched by a corresponding -$43B drop in the discount window. FHLB advances also slowed materially versus the week earlier.
- Expect deposit-flight to continue due to better yield opportunities in MMF.?Not necessarily as a sign of stress, but would expect liquidity to continue flowing out of bank savings accounts into money market funds on the substantial yield pickup and lower counterparty risks.
- RRP (Reverse Repo) volumes continued to pick up, lowering money velocity.?Loan liquidity generated from BTFP and discount window borrowing continued to be sucked back into Fed reverse repo facilities, generating net zero money velocity (ie. Not QE).
- Small reopening in US IG bond issuance market.?Around $13B of new IG supply went to market on Thursday, but Europe remained closed due to the Credit Suisse AT1 shock, and there has been no new high yield supply either due to the retrenching of risk appetite. Both US Bank IG and EU CoCo yields have retraced from their highs earlier this week.
- Secretary Yellen backtracked on some of her deposit comments yesterday which had spooked the market.?Her latest comments stated that the Treasury is “prepared for additional deposit protections if warranted”, and that “strong actions [are] taken to ensure deposits are safe”, echoing sentiment that is more inline with what chairman Powell stated during his Q&A.
- US fixed income continued its bull steepening rally.?2yr yields fell by 14bp to 3.8%, and 5/30s saw a ~70bp steepening since the beginning of March, serving as an ideal trade against a dovish Fed operating within a still high inflation backdrop. Despite the overall improvement in sentiment, the market is now pricing just ~40% chance of a 25bp hike in May, with cumulative ~85bp of cuts reversed back by December. The 2yr treasury vs overnight spread is currently at -100bp, and at the most inverted levels seen just before the pandemic crisis, and with GFC and 9/11 serving the only other precedents.
- Crypto prices recovered with the rest of TradFi sentiment.?BTC >$28k and ETH >$1.8k. BTC traders appeared to have done well YTD capturing locking-in significant profits during this rally despite more subdued mainstream interests.
- USDT trading volumes and dominance have increased as the default ‘medium of exchange’, post the collapse of Silvergate, SVB, and Signature Bank as on/off-ramp channels.
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1 年Come take a look at the macro market.