Signal: Is the US losing Latin America??—?An Undead President?—?May(be) on the ropes

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SOUTHBOUND: US INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA

No region in the world has soured more quickly on President Trump than Latin America, where approval of the US President has tumbled to just 16%, according to a recent Gallup poll. It’s easy to see why. Trump seems to speak of the region almost uniquely as a source of drugs, criminals, unwanted refugees, and US job losses. If the Bush and Obama administrations showed Latin America a frustrating but benign neglect, Trump has swept in with a new, malign attention — looking to upend trade deals, slash immigration, and cut security cooperation.

At the same time, a new power has emerged in the region. In recent years, China has displaced the US as the top trade partner for Brazil, Peru, and Chile, and it’s now Latin America’s number two commercial partner overall. Chinese state banks have poured tens of billions of dollars into industries and infrastructure across the continent, often on friendlier terms than US-backed lenders, and with few political or human rights requirements. Beijing plans a further quarter-trillion dollars of investment in the coming years, and is courting the region to be part of its global “Belt and Road” infrastructure network.

That commercial presence has shifted regional attitudes towards Beijing. Among Latin America’s largest countries, Colombia is the only one where the US is still seen more favorably than China. On the eve of his trip, Tillerson warned of a new Chinese imperialism in the region — but inexplicably applauded the policy that underpinned the old American imperialism there.

Whether Beijing’s influence is preferable to Washington’s is for Latin America’s own people and governments to decide. China’s rapid entry has certainly raised concerns about land purchases, labor displacement, and human rights. But as President Xi Jinping follows through on his pledge to make China a global superpower, can — or will — the US push back in its own neighborhood?

GRAPHIC TRUTH: GOING SOUTH…

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s bid to improve Washington’s ties with Latin America is an uphill battle. In the year since his boss took office, regional views of the United States have taken a nosedive. The map below plots the breakdown:

THE BIG BATTLE OVER BIG DATA

Last week we told you why many world leaders think global power increasingly depends on harnessing the promise of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence. So this week, in-house tech guru Kevin Allison takes a look at the key contenders for the crown. They are, mainly…

The United States: With the biggest tech companies, the best talent, and the most innovative economy — this is the tech power to beat. But the state’s hands-off approach to the sector means most of that power (and data) is accruing to private companies whose primary loyalty is to their own shareholders. With tech companies facing a bi-partisan backlash in Washington, the government will likely seek more control. Whether that stifles innovation or strengthens the US position vis-à-vis rival powers remains to be seen.

China: The challenger. China can’t match US talent yet, but it’s catching up fast, for three reasons: its private sector tech giants are closely aligned with the state and the Party; China’s billion strong population can produce vastly more raw data than the US; and President Xi Jinping has consolidated power in a way that enables him to credibly make long-term financial and political promises to support the aim of making China an “AI Superpower” in the next ten years.

How does all this affect you? The competition here isn’t necessarily zero-sum — advances in one place can fuel innovation in others. But as big data grows bigger and artificial intelligence gets more, well, intelligent — a host of political and ethical issues will arise. So it will matter a great deal which governments, or companies, are in pole position to determine the new norms of privacy, oversight, and accountability.

THE BOTTOM RUNG OF JACOB’S LADDER?

South African President Jacob Zuma’s political future hangs in the balance tomorrow, as leaders of his own party — the African National Congress — meet to decide whether to force him out of office. Zuma, who faces hundreds of corruption allegations, lost his bid to control the leadership of the ANC in an internal party vote late last year. And over the weekend he resisted informal efforts to get him to step aside before he delivers the state of the union address on Thursday.

The ANC’s new party head, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, has pledged to clean up corruption and bolster the economy. And as the beleaguered party of liberation tries to bolster its fortunes ahead of what will be a very competitive national election next year, getting the disgraced Zuma out of office sooner rather than later is a top priority for ANC leaders. If Zuma resists, buckle up for a deeper political crisis in Southern Africa’s largest economy.

IT MAY BE THE END

As star-crossed British Prime Minister Theresa May gets weaker and weaker, hardliners within her Tory party may finally try to pull the plug and replace her with one of their own with the aim of negotiating a sharper split from Europe.

It would be a risky move, given the Tories’ slim majority in parliament. If the “soft-Brexit” wing of the party doesn’t go along, it could unintentionally open the way for rival Labor party leader Jeremy Corbyn to become prime minister.

“Hard-Brexit” Tories may still take the gamble, betting that at the end of the day, the party will stick together rather than clear a path for Labor. The Tory position will become clearer after a fresh round of cabinet deliberations on Brexit this week, after which point May’s days could well be numbered…

Why it matters for the UK: Any Tory replacement for May would ultimately seek out a harder line on Brexit, prolonging uncertainty in the UK — which could prompt a mass corporate exodus from London — and threaten to permanently split the Conservative party.

Why it matters for Europe: A rockier Brexit process isn’t good news for the continent either — the UK is scheduled to leave the EU in March 2019, with or without a negotiated deal, and a failure to agree to future economic relations before then would disrupt a commercial and financial relationship that is, still, critical for both sides.

MATTERS OF LIFE AND DEATH: AN UNDEAD PRESIDENT AND A LONELY BIRD

With an approval rating of 9%, Brazilian President Michel Temer may be politically lifeless, but he is not actually dead. This last detail, however, has been lost on Brazil’s state pension fund, which stopped paying out Temer’s dole late last year, citing lack of proof that he is actually alive. All Brazilians are required to appear yearly, in person, to take a test — Temer didn’t do it.

In a macabre irony, Temer is currently trying to pass tough reforms to precisely the bloated pension system that thinks he is no longer among us, but it doesn’t look like he has the votes to do so. So, to recap: the Brazilian president is alive, but the reform of the pension system that thinks he is dead is probably dead.

Meanwhile a story from New Zealand, where a bird that lived alone on a remote island among concrete replicas of his own species has passed away after years of unrequited courtship. The bird, Nigel, was so enamored of the concrete fakes — which were set up to lure more birds like him to the island — that even when living members of his own species finally showed up, he ignored them.

The winning take here comes from my fellow Signalista Kevin Allison: “I can’t help but think that this is actually a metaphor for social media.”

To pull you out of that abyss of techno-existential despair, here are some….

HARD NUMBERS

10,316: The Berlin Wall stood for a total of 10,316 days, and as of this week, has been down for the same length of time. And yet still, more than half of Germans feel that their country hasn’t fully reunified.

58: percent of Iranians who think the economy is “getting worse.” That’s more than 20 points higher than it was back in 2015, when the country was under more severe sanctions. The protests that erupted late last year about economic issues have fizzled, but clearly discontent still lingers.

3.7: ISIS controls just 3.7% of Syrian territory, down from more than half at the peak of the “caliphate’s” reach. Now that ISIS, which just about everyone hated, is gone — are deeper divisions within Syria, and the region more broadly, re-emerging?

1: The economic output of the single South Korean province Gangwon, the country’s poorest, exceeds that of the entire economy of North Korea. You will hear more about Gangwon in the coming days because it’s where this year’s Winter Olympics will take place.

This edition of Signal was written by Alex Kliment (@saosasha) and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy) and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Willis Sparks.

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