Signal: Turkey talk, electoral pie, and Trump’s gratitude

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TURKEY TALK: THREE HOT DISHES

Don’t talk politics at the Thanksgiving table, they say. Especially at a time when the US has, as our friends at Axios recently pointed out, gone “batshit crazy.” But as Signalistas, we can’t help it. It’s what we do. If you do it too, then here are three dishes on geopolitics that you can bring to the family this week, with care:

Technology is Making Strongmen Stronger.

Authoritarian leaders are learning to exploit social media and personal data as instruments of control. Democracies, meanwhile, are learning that these technologies exacerbate polarization and undermine broader faith in democratic institutions. “What about the Arab Spring?” a relative at the other end of the table pipes up. “How’d that turn out?” you respond, showing him a jihadist group on Facebook (why you have that on your phone is your business not ours).

Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Equals Hillary Clinton’s Plus Twitter.

Stands with Saudi Arabia, adds troops in Afghanistan, barks louder than bites on China, rallies economic pressure against North Korea, boosts NATO after all… This is hardly the neo-isolationist foreign policy that Trump promised on the campaign trail. In fact, it’s mostly (with exception of the Iran deal backtrack) what you’d have expected from Her. Ouch! To be fair, trade policy is a whole different story. There Trump really has upended decades of consensus. Discuss this one with care: it’s a batshit minefield.

The Leader of Europe Now Sits in Paris.

The Chancellor of the Free World faces the biggest challenge of her political career. If the times make the leader, then Europe’s center of gravity has just shifted to Paris. France’s daring youngster Emmanuel Macron has put forth bold proposals to reform the EU, despite the historic performance of his country’s far-right. After her poor election result, the ever-pragmatic Merkel got right down to the arithmetic of administration. Whether she emerges from this latest challenge weakened or not at all, the “next” leader of Europe may well be the “new” leader of Europe. Maybe save this one for after dessert.

YOUR WEEKLY TURKEY PUPPET

The PUPPET REGIME continues — at this year’s presidential turkey pardoning, the bird is just the beginning. For more, subscribe to The GZero World with Ian Bremmer! Also on Youtube.

AND NOW FOR SOME (ELECTORAL) PIE

Brexit. Trump. Macron. This year has had its fair share of wild election results. And next year is bound to have its fair share too: with contests in Italy, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico, and of course the US mid-terms. But if you seek comfort in certainty, there are still some elections that really do look like one-way bets. What happens after the vote, however, may be a little more complicated. A menu of upcoming cakewalks as you sit down for dessert…

Russia: President Putin enjoys an 82% approval rating and no serious challengers. He’ll cruise to victory in March 2018 — he doesn’t even need a serving of ballot stuffing (zing). The big question is what happens next. The constitution says Putin has to step aside when his next term ends in 2024 — will he? A messy transition could turn ugly fast.

Egypt: Terrorism, tough economic reforms, and a territorial giveaway to Saudi Arabia have chipped away at support for nationalist strongman President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, but he’s still popular among Egyptians who see him as a bulwark against Islamism. And a ruthless state propaganda and repression machine awaits any opponents in next year’s presidential election. But afterwards, like Putin, he’ll have to start thinking about a tricky succession of his own, and if those IMF reforms don’t deliver brighter days soon…

Malaysia: Prime Minister Najib Razak’s ruling UMNO party faces a growing opposition led by former PM Mahathir Mohamed, but he’s squelched probes into massive corruption allegations, and is playing both the ethnic (Malay) and sectarian (Islamic) cards well with his base. A little gerrymandering and lavish social spending won’t hurt either. This isn’t quite a cakewalk — the UMNO’s ruling coalition may not regain its supermajority in parliament — but it still looks like a dessert dish for the Malaysian PM.

Hungary: Good advice for Thanksgiving: Never talk politics hungry. Unless of course you’re talking about Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who just two weeks ago accepted his party’s unanimous nomination to lead it into elections next spring. Orban’s anti-EU, anti-migration, anti-globalization rhetoric has hit a nerve — his far-right Fidesz party is polling at a comfortable 49 percent. Look for Orban to double-down on the anti-Europe rhetoric as the election nears, but to ease up once he secures an election victory. There’s space for compromise, but being the bad boy of Europe does have its (electoral) advantages.

GRAPHIC TRUTH: PARDON THE INTERRUPTION

Americans are divided on President Trump. The world is not. Only two countries — Israel and Russia — have more confidence in Trump to act responsibly on the international stage than they had in his predecessor. Sorry to get serious… Now back to your scheduled programming.

HARD NUMBERS: TALKING TURKEY

49.12: The average cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner is $49.12 this year, the cheapest it’s been since 2013.

736: Americans gobbled up 736 million pounds of turkey during last year’s Thanksgiving, accounting for about 10 percent of annual consumption.

3,500: The two turkeys vying for a presidential pardon have been staying at a five-star hotel with rooms costing up to $3,500 a night.

154: The number of years since US President Abraham Lincoln formally established the last Thursday of November as “a day of Thanksgiving and Praise,” in 1863.

WHO’S THANKFUL? TRUMP, SAUDI PRINCES, PUTIN, EUROCRATS, & US

1) Trump can be thankful most liberals don’t grasp the fact that 82 percent of GOP voters still support him.

2) Russia can be thankful that all the attention on Russian meddling is distracting people from the underlying social tensions that give Russian meddling traction in the first place.

3) Supporters of the European Union can be thankful that the UK certainly isn’t making the prospect of leaving it look appealing.

4) Saudi elites detained for corruption can be mutshakkeriin that Price Mohammed isn’t serious enough about crushing corruption to prevent them from buying their way out of jail.

5) The entire Signal crew — Kevin Allison, Leon Levy, Gabe Lipton, Willis Sparks, and yours truly — can be thankful we have such a thoughtful and engaged group of readers. If you’re celebrating Thanksgiving, all our holiday best. If not, think about a turkey wearing sunglasses. Right now. Do it.

This edition of Signal was written by Alex Kliment (@saosasha) and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy) and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Willis Sparks.

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