Signal: Trump’s soft targets?—?Tough Timing in Turkey?—?Politics and Chill

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TRUMP’S SOFT TARGETS

The world moved one step closer toward a trade war last week, as the US implemented long-postponed tariffs against its allies (Mexico, Canada, and the EU). Why did the Trump administration finally decide to lower the hammer on Washington’s friends?

Simple, says my fellow Signalista Gabe Lipton. They’re easy targets.

In Mexico, outgoing incumbent President Pena Nieto faces an election next month in which his business-friendly party, the PRI, will likely experience its most crushing loss in decades. That means he’s under huge pressure to strike a NAFTA deal with Washington that safeguards Mexico’s long-term business interests before the election of leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who could blow up the NAFTA talks entirely. With Pena Nieto over a barrel, Trump’s metals tariffs are designed to force Mexico to give away the store before Lopez Obrador has a chance to set up shop. Will it work?

For Canada’s Justin Trudeau, Trump’s tariffs pose a different political problem — getting baited into a trade war could hurt politically important industrial bases in Ontario and Quebec which rely on the US market, but responding too softly could hurt him with an electorate that deeply dislikes the US president. Trump knows Trudeau has a fine line to walk, and sees an opportunity to knock him off it, particularly since the heartthrob prime minister could suffer a political blow if Doug Ford (a populist businessman often compared to Trump), wins an election to run Ontario this week.

As for the EU, Trump knows full well that crafting a forceful and unified response to the US requires forging consensus among 28 countries, who are struggling to find unity on most things these days. What’s more, Europe’s abiding commitments to WTO rules (Quaint! Sad!) incline it to take a more deliberative and litigious approach to trade disputes that can get left in the dust by Trump’s norm-breaking executive actions. That said, if Trump follows through with proposed tariffs on European autos — which dwarf steel and aluminum as exports to the US — could the Europeans take a toothier approach?

The bottom line: For President Trump, going after US allies is way to ring up quick and dirty wins on an issue — trade — that’s popular with his base. Of course, that still leaves the challenge of facing down China, a competitor that enjoys greater economic heft, and far fewer political or economic constraints, than any of America’s soft target friends.

TIMING IN TURKEY

Earlier this spring, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made a big bet on timing — moving up his country’s general elections by 16 months to June 24th, he reasoned, would make it easier to lock in a fresh mandate before a slowing economy and growing opposition complicated things.

Given his broad influence over the media and the courts, as well as the emergency decrees that he’s used since a failed 2016 coup to silence or marginalize opposition figures, Erdogan and his AKP party, who’ve been in power since 2003, are still the electoral favorites. But this election’s not quite the shoo-in that it might once have seemed.

For one thing, Erdogan’s policies have recently thrown the Turkish currency into a tailspin that has raised questions about his ability to continue delivering economic growth. The international creditors who’ve helped fuel Turkey’s economic boom don’t like the country’s rising inflation. But the central bank has long been under pressure from Erdogan to keep interest rates low to benefit the small businesses that make up a key part of his political base. Investors’ patience for Erdogan’s meddling has started to fray recently.

At the same time, Turkey’s beleaguered opposition has been surprisingly unified. Large and small parties have joined together to increase their chances of gaining seats in parliament, and the leading presidential challengers, the fiery nationalist Meral Aksener and Muharrem Ince, a largely secular politician of humble origins who has made inroads with Erdogan’s base, have pledged to support each other if either makes it to a second round against Erdogan. That could pose a stiff challenge for him.

Over the past year, there have been several cases when world leaders tried to time elections to their advantage, only to see things blow up in their faces — we’ve got Malaysia’s Najib Razak, Britain’s Theresa May, and Italy’s Matteo Renzi on line two. While Turkey’s strongman Erdogan is still in a much more commanding position than most, June 24th can’t come soon enough.

GRAPHIC TRUTH: DRIVING PAST TRUMP’S LIMITS

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imported automobiles. Most of the US’s car imports happen to come from allies such as Germany, Canada, and Japan. Here’s who stands to lose the most if Trump floors it with these new measures.

THREE STORIES IN THE KEY OF: POLITICS AND CHILL

Film and TV are still tremendously powerful instruments of what is called “soft power” — leaders’ ability to shape favorable and persuasive perceptions of their goals at home and abroad. This week, a look at three examples from around the globe:

Fasting and binging: Across the Muslim world, the holy month of Ramadan is prime time for TV, as people break the daily fast and then binge on television series specially produced for the month. In the Middle East, TV consumption rises nearly 80 percent, according to a study commissioned by Netflix. The dramas that flash before viewers’ eyes often reflect broader political trends in their countries.

In Egypt, most of this year’s series throw a sympathetic light on the country’s notoriously brutal security services and prisons, as strongman Abdel Fattah el-Sisi seeks to project an image of resolve in the face of rising jihadist violence. And Cairo’s warming ties with traditional rival Saudi Arabia doubtless influenced the producers of a series titled “Land of Hypocrisy” to reshoot several episodes to exclude an Egyptian journalist who had criticized the kingdom. Rising tensions with Sudan over security and water rights, for their part, filtered into Khartoum’s recent protestations over a series in which a mild-mannered Cairene lawyer is driven to join Islamic militants in Egypt’s southern neighbor.

Channel surfing the nationalist mythology wave: In Thailand the ruling military junta is supporting a hugely popular TV program called “Love Destiny” in which a young Thai woman is reincarnated in the kingdom of Ayutthaya, which fell in the 18th century. For Thai nationalists, Ayutthaya was a golden era in which the forebears of today’s Thailand ran a powerful, united empire that stood strong against foreign invaders. General Prayuth Chan-Ocha, who runs the military government in a much more fragmented Thailand today, has visited the site of the show in period costume. As Thailand lurches towards its first, tightly-controlled, election since a 2014 coup, the government is keen to use a little mythmaking to boost a nationalistic sense of unity.

And lastly to China, where politics are playing out across bigger screens. Earlier this year the country’s film industry was placed under the direct supervision of the communist party’s propaganda division. Party officials will now determine which films get financed and made in China and, crucially, which titles are included in the yearly quota of 34 foreign films. Given that China recently surpassed the US to become the world’s most lucrative film market, that’s a big deal. To make the cut, international directors and producers will be at greater pains to show China in a positive light.

But here’s a question: Beijing may squeeze Hollywood at home, but as Xi Jinping bids to increase China’s soft power, can Chinese films ever attain the global reach and appeal of Hollywood titles?

GZERO WORLD: POPULISM AIN’T ABOUT THE PEOPLE

Your GZERO World this week, Ian chats with Princeton professor Jan-Werner Müller about populism’s surprising coherence and the false lessons history holds for understanding its rise.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING/IGNORING

Since there won’t be a Friday edition this week, Willis has kindly submitted this guide for your attentions over the next seven days…

Watch the G7 summit — We don’t often spend time on these talk-shop, photo-op summits, but this one could be interesting, if only because every single member has a bone to pick with Donald Trump. EU leaders, Canada, and Japan — America’s closest allies-all face US tariffs. Will anyone smile at the group photo?

Watch North Korea — News from inside the DPRK, the world’s most secretive state, hints at possible divisions of opinion over talks with the US. Three senior military officials were removed from their posts this week, according to US officials.

Ignore new calls for Catalan independence — Hoping to profit from political turmoil in Madrid, imprisoned Catalan independence leader Jordi Sànchez called on the Spanish government this week to drop its commitment to “the indisputable unity of the homeland.” Last week, Mariano Rajoy lost power to the Socialist Party’s Pedro Sánchez, who must now lead a minority government. But that doesn’t move us closer to Catalan independence. Only a commitment from Madrid to recognize a Catalan independence referendum can do that. That’s not on the agenda.

Ignore Venezuela’s protester release — Venezuela’s government has released dozens of opposition politicians and activists in recent days. This is not a political breakthrough because there is no common ground between President Nicolas Maduro and those who would force him from power. It’s more likely a bid to ease pressure on the government following a disputed election than a genuine gesture of conciliation or a sign that the regime is buckling under pressure. Those released are not allowed to use social media or travel abroad.

A PICTURE WORTH 200 WORDS OR $320: DENMARK’S “BURKA BAN”

Here’s the weekly photo essay from fellow Signalista Kevin: Pictured above, in Copenhagen, Denmark — a total of $320 in fines. At least that’ll be the case starting August 1, when a controversial new law forbids face-coverings of any kind in public. While the law doesn’t explicitly target any religious groups, it is known colloquially as the “burqa ban.” Violators face a 1,000 kroner ($160) fine.

Here’s the political story: As in France, Austria, Belgium, and other European countries that have passed similar legislation in recent years, mainstream centrist parties get tugged rightward to avoid losing voters to their hard line challengers. In Denmark, parties of the ruling center-right minority coalition initially balked at the measure, but ultimately backed it because they rely on the right wing anti-immigration Danish People’s Party to maintain a majority.

HARD NUMBERS

87: At the 500-day mark, President Trump’s approval rating among Republicans is 87 percent, the second highest “own party” rating for any president at this point in their term since World War II. Only George W. Bush, whose first term was defined by the events of 9/11, bests him.

20: Cable news outlets in the US devoted more than 20 times as much time to the scandal surrounding TV star Roseanne Barr’s tweets as they did reporting on a new report that suggests as many as 5,000 Puerto Rican citizens of the US may have died as a result of last year’s Hurricane Maria. Critics wondered, with good reason, whether such a large death toll on the mainland would have gotten similarly short shrift. Signal thinks not.

14: Last week, finance officials from 14 African countries discussed adopting the Chinese yuan as one of the currencies that their central banks hold. As China’s global investments grow, while misgivings about US dollar dominance mount, Beijing is keen to make its own currency an eventual rival to the dollar in international trade and finance.

6: North Korea’s vast mineral resources, including what might be the world’s largest rare earth deposit, are valued around $6 trillion, according to a South Korean think tank. That’s around 176 times the size of the country’s economy.

1: By the end of the year, China will rank first in the world in terms of investment in scientific research. While the Trump administration has movedto restricts foreign visas, China has an ambitious program to attract talent from abroad.

This edition of Signal was written by Alex Kliment (@saosasha) and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy) and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Willis Sparks.

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