Signal: Syria’s Showdown, Anonymous Essays, and an Austrian Kangaroo

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SYRIA’S FINAL BATTLE?

This may be the final major battle of Syria’s seven-year civil war. In defiance of warnings from the US and Turkish governments, Syrian government forces, with Russian military support, look poised to begin an assault on Idlib province, the last rebel-controlled area in the country. There are tens of thousands of rebel and jihadist fighters in Idlib. Three million civilians, half of them refugees from other regions, are trapped in harm’s way.

The presidents of Russia, Iran, and Turkey are meeting today in Iran to discuss whether large-scale bloodshed can be avoided and how best to manage the fallout. As part of an agreement reached with Russia and Iran, Turkey has placed a small number of its soldiers in 12 observation posts between rebels and government forces to try to block the assault. Assad, Russia, and Iran now want those troops removed.

Syria’s long, bloody conflict has reshaped Middle East alliances and upended European politics. Its final chapter is being monitored closely in capitals around the world. Here are the most directly interested parties:

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad wants to finish the fight so that he can begin to consolidate control of (what’s left of) his country. He’d like to avoid fighting if he can, but Al Qaeda-affiliated rebel groups have vowed to fight to the end.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Assad’s benefactor, wants to solidify his country’s position as the preeminent outside power in Syria. Like Assad, Russia would prefer to avoid a civilian bloodbath that would further alienate Europe and make it more difficult to raise funds for reconstruction. Yet, there’s no sign yet that threatening moves can force a surrender of rebel and jihadist forces.

Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan accepts that longtime foe Assad will win the war, but he hopes to avoid another surge of desperate people across his country’s borders. Turkey already hosts more than three million Syrian refugees and is grappling with an economic crisis.

Iran’s Hassan Rouhani is offering his country as a mediator, but Iran’s longer-term concern centers on expanding military ties with Assad and avoiding any effort by Russia to minimize its influence with his government. “The terrorists must be purged,” said Iran’s foreign minister on Monday.

Germany’s Angela Merkel knows that Assad must control major cities if Syria is to be stabilized, but mindful of the ways in which refugees have transformed European politics, wants to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe and begin to plan for Syria’s reconstruction.

The Trump administration has warned it will respond if Syria’s military uses banned weapons. “Don’t let this happen,” tweeted Trump. “All eyes on the actions of Assad, Russia, and Iran in Idlib. #NoChemicalWeapons,” tweeted US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. “Sergey Lavrov is defending Syrian and Russian assault on #Idlib. The Russians and Assad agreed not to permit this,” tweeted Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

The UN and relief organizations, fearful this fight will kill hundreds of thousands of civilians and create a humanitarian emergency, want Syrian and Russian forces to allow an evacuation corridor to move civilians to safer areas.

The bottom line: This seven-year civil war has already killed or displaced half the people living in Syria when fighting began, but there is good cause for concern that the final battle may prove the bloodiest of them all. The fallout will be felt for years to come.

MUTINY

On Wednesday, as you’ve probably heard, The New York Times published an anonymous opinion piece by “a senior official in the Trump administration whose identity is known to us and whose job would be jeopardized by its disclosure.”

The author of this piece, which a Times tweet identifies as a man, claims…

• …that he is one of many “unsung heroes in and around the White House” who are “working diligently from within to frustrate parts of [Trump’s] agenda and his worst inclinations.”
• …that the “root of the problem is the president’s amorality. Anyone who works with him knows he is not moored to any discernible first principles that guide his decision making.”
• ...that Trump’s “impulsiveness results in half-baked, ill-informed and occasionally reckless decisions that have to be walked back.”
• …that there were “early whispers within the cabinet of invoking the 25th Amendment, which would start a complex process for removing the president.”
• ...that he and his comrades “will do what we can to steer the administration in the right direction until — one way or another — it’s over.”

Another senior administration official then told Axios: "…people seem so shocked that there is a resistance from the inside… A lot of us [were] wishing we’d been the writer.... I hope [Trump] knows … that there are dozens and dozens of us."

The debate rages.

Trump defenders: Donald Trump, not anonymous officials, won the election. This essay proves Trump is right to warn of a “deep state,” conspirators within government who are thwarting the will of the people as expressed by the 2016 election result. This is not how democracy should work.

Trump critics: This essay provides a first-person account of the threat President Trump poses to the republic. Yes, he won the election. But the public deserves to know just how dangerous he is.

A “cowardly coup?”: In addition, as David Frum asks in The Atlantic, if the problem identified by the author is that Trump is temperamentally unfit for office, won’t this essay make matters worse? “If the president’s closest advisers believe that he is morally and intellectually unfit for his high office, they have a duty to do their utmost to remove him from it, by the lawful means at hand.”

Other arguments: Should the Times have published this piece? Does the public’s right to hear this person’s voice justify anonymity, an extraordinarily rare privilege? Or should the Times simply have quoted this person as part of a news story rather than giving him this forum while allowing him to keep his anonymity? 

My view: This person assures us there are “adults in the room,” that he and his comrades will “steer the administration in the right direction.”

If he wields that sort of power, we deserve to know his name. This is not just one more Republican backing Trump in public while trashing him in private. This man’s desire to keep his job doesn’t outweigh the right of Americans to know who “steers” their government.

Signal reader, what do you think?

GZERO MEDIA PRESENTS: WORK IN 60 SECONDS

Wharton School of Business professor Adam Grant reveals what kills creativity, how to best interact with colleagues at work, and his favorite office perk. It’s Work in 60 Seconds!

PRESIDENT VS. POP STAR

President Yoweri Museveni, now 73, has ruled Uganda for 32 years. Robert Kyagulanyi, better known as Bobi Wine and by his fans as “the Ghetto President,” used fame as a pop star to win a seat in parliament in 2017. His campaign slogan: “Since Parliament has failed to come to the ghetto, then we shall bring the ghetto to Parliament.”

Wine hasn’t stopped making music, and he continues to use an up-tempo beatto criticize Museveni, a man unaccustomed to public criticism. Museveni has twice amended Uganda’s constitution in order to remain in power.

Why might Museveni consider Bobi Wine a special threat? There’s a generational element to the antipathy between these two men. Some 70 percent of Ugandans were not yet born when Museveni came to power in 1986. Bobi Wine was just four years old. If Museveni finds Wine unusually threatening, it’s because he’s a charismatic, widely popular representative of youth in a country where three in four citizens are under the age of 30. It’s a country with one of the world’s widest gaps between average age and the age of the president. In Uganda, over 60 percent of young people are unemployed.

The government is not taking this threat lightly. First it banned some of Wine’s protest songs. Then on August 20, Wine was arrested and will face treason charges in a military court. He’s accused of threatening a motorcade carrying Museveni. Violent protests followed, and Wine claims he was tortured in custody. The case began to gain international attention, and Ugandan authorities agreed to allow Wine to leave the country. Other, less famous opposition figures have not been allowed to leave.

Last weekend, Wine arrived in the United States for medical treatment. Museveni, once considered a freedom fighter who helped bring down Idi Amin, calls the torture allegations “fake news.” It’s not at all clear who will ultimately win this fight.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

Brazil’s embattled presidential candidates – Think Washington had a crazy political week? Here’s your update from Brazil ahead of next month's presidential election. Former President Lula remains in jail. His likely replacement as Worker’s Party candidate, Fernando Haddad, and center-right candidate Geraldo Alckmin were both charged with corruption. Front-runner Jair Bolsonaro was stabbed at a campaign rally and seriously injured.

Mauricio Macri – Elected in 2015 on the promise to restore Argentina’s economic health, Argentine President Mauricio Macri has imposed just enough austerity to inflict pain on the public without persuading investors the country can meet its financial obligations. A serious meltdown, provoked by conditions both inside and outside his country, has created a currency crisis. The peso has lost half its value against the dollar this year. This week, Macri took drastic action, sharply raising taxes and cutting the number of government ministries by half to reduce spending. The central bank has raised interest rates to 60 percent. Will it be enough? And can he remain a viable candidate for re-election next year while imposing more hardship on voters?

Iran’s oil customers – In anticipation of the return of sanctions on Iran’s oil in November, its exports fell by 18 percent from July to August. That’s in part because, surprisingly, China and India have sharply reduced purchases in line with Donald Trump’s demands. Neither will stop buying Iranian crude altogether, but the degree of compliance was unexpected. That’s not good news for Iran’s economy, or for those who hope Iran might continue to abide by the terms of the nuclear deal without US participation. 

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING 

North Korea at 70 – China’s Xi Jinping is skipping North Korea’s 70th anniversary celebration this weekend, and we will too. If you’ve seen one goose-stepping military parade followed by a 3,000-person choreographed dance with a flashcard backdrop, you’ve seen them all. Maybe we’ll TIVO it.

Putin TV show – Nor are we likely to watch “Moscow Kremlin Putin,” a new TV show airing on Russian state television that aims to prove Vladimir Putin is even hunkier than we thought. Apparently, Putin remains in great shape, frightens wild animals, and has a “human, sincere attitude toward children.” We know that already. 

The Austrian Kangaroo – Your Friday author was not amused when fellow Signalistas forwarded him a story about a kangaroo on the loose in Austria. Not Australia. Austria. “This is the kind of low-brow material you love to include on Fridays,” they seemed to suggest. Yes, I like stories about animals on the loose, but I’m not automatically going to write about a kangaroo hopping around Austria just because it includes great video, and the story is weird. Forget it. 

As of this writing, the kangaroo remains at large.

HARD NUMBERS

73: The Ipsos Global Worry survey, published in July, showed that 73 percent of Swedes said the country was headed in the wrong direction—the fifth worst result among 28 countries surveyed. Sweden holds national elections this weekend. The lead issues are immigration and climate change.

71: The 2017 report from the International Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Trans and Intersex Association lists 72 countries and territories where same-sex relationships remain criminalized. Make that 71. India's Supreme Court ruled this week that gay sex is no longer a criminal offence.

49: A court in Genoa ordered the permanent seizure of €49 million from Italy’s far-right League as a result of fraud charges. Judges say that funds the state reimbursed for elections between 2008 and 2010 were misappropriated for personal use, such as the purchase of diamonds and gold bars. Matteo Salvini, the party’s de facto leader and Italy’s Interior Minister, is considering changing the party’s name to avoid paying the bill.

1/3: Beginning next week, Russia and China will begin the Vostok-2018 joint military exercises in eastern Siberia, the largest war games in decades. The exercise will include 300,000 Russian troops—one third of the country’s armed forces. It will also feature 1,000 Russian aircraft, 36,000 Russian tanks, 3,200 Chinese troops and 900 Chinese tanks.

 WORDS OF WISDOM

"When you put a snake and a rat and a falcon and a rabbit and a shark and a seal in a zoo without walls, things start getting nasty and bloody."

— Former White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, quoted in Bob Woodward’s book “Fear: Trump in the White House,” on life inside the Trump administration.

This edition of Signal was written by Willis Sparks and prepared with editorial support from Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Alex Kliment (@saosasha) and Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison).