Signal: Strongman Setbacks, Lessons from Zimbabwe and Facebook, and an Endangered Ostrich

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-Ian

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EVEN AUTOCRATS GET HEADACHES

Your Tuesday author has written about the sharp drop in Vladimir Putin’s approval numbers following unpopular changes announced to Russia’s pension system. That story made news again this week with a new poll that gives United Russia, a party distinguished only by slavish devotion to Putin, an approval rating of just 37 percent. That’s their lowest point since 2011.

Putin isn’t the only autocrat with a headache. After an historic consolidation of power over the past year, one made possible by purges of rivals and a surge in state censorship, President Xi Jinping has established a degree of political dominance not seen in China since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976. But Xi is now grappling with two main sources of anxiety and anger.

The near-term problem is a public health crisis. A party that holds a monopoly on power assumes direct responsibility for the security and wellbeing of its citizens. In years past, China’s people have fallen victim to unsafe food and medicine, and last month a government investigation and news reports revealed that a major Chinese drug company produced at least 250,000 doses of vaccine for diphtheria, tetanus, and whooping cough that didn’t meet safety standards. This is China’s third vaccine scandal in eight years. Protests erupted on social media and on the streets of Chinese cities.

The long-term challenge centers on growing economic anxiety. China’s economy has been slowing for years, in part by design, as the leadership shifts from heavy reliance on exports to a model fueled by the spending of Chinese consumers. It hasn’t been a smooth process, and the state has recently had to inject more than $100 billion to keep the economy moving at a healthy pace.

A growing trade war with the US has only added to unease about the future. President Trump again raised the stakes this week with threats to impose 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to the US.

Last October, as presidential term limits were lifted, and a twice per decade Communist Party congress became a kind of coronation, Xi proclaimed a new era for China, one in which his rising nation need no longer hide its strength and surging self-confidence. Yet, if China’s economic worries continue to grow, some will blame Xi and this triumphalist message for provoking an unnecessary confrontation with the US and others.

Let’s be clear: Xi and Putin have plenty of power in reserve. Neither is in imminent danger. But both must fear that, over time, emboldened critics may limit their ability to take unpopular but necessary steps for the long-term health of their countries.

DEMOCRACY AND INFORMATION

There is no democracy without a source of information in which a strong majority can have confidence. Here are two stories from this week that illustrate the point.

Just hours ago, Emmerson Mnangagwa of the governing Zanu-PF party was declared the winner of Monday’s hotly disputed presidential election in Zimbabwe. Trouble began early in the week when opposition leader Nelson Chamisa, confident the vote was rigged against him, took to Twitter to declare victory. His words triggered street celebrations that were met with force by police.

Social media accounts, many of them fake, have added to the confusion with competing claims about what’s happening. Vote counts for parliamentary elections favored the ruling ZANU-PF, provoking outrage from its critics. But results of Monday’s presidential election were delayed until the very early hours of Friday morning, raising doubts about the credibility of the entire process. African and Western election observers have disagreed about the scale of irregularities and the extent of unfair treatment of the opposition. Chamisa vows to challenge the results in court.

In a situation like this, how can voters have confidence in the information they hear? The ruling party has stolen elections many times before. The opposition claimed victory without hard evidence to back the claim. It’s impossible to separate fact from fiction online, and outsiders can’t agree on what to say.

Meanwhile, Facebook is back in the news this week, with an announcement it discovered 32 false pages and profiles that were created as part of a sophisticated disinformation campaign ahead of US midterm elections in November. Posts and ads centered on topics like race, feminism and fascism. In this case, the content was reportedly created to generate anger toward President Trump.

Facebook says there is already information linking the campaign to the Internet Research Agency, a Kremlin-backed organization that sowed confusion on its platform before the 2016 US presidential election. The real concern according to Facebook is that those responsible have gotten much better over the past two years at camouflaging themselves.

That raises two big questions: If this is what Facebook has found, what hasn’t it found? And what about Twitter, Google, and others?

The bottom line: Access to reliable information is now a critical issue in democracies of all shapes and sizes.

A NEW DIGITAL SERIES FROM GZERO MEDIA: IN 60 SECONDS

Signal readers, we know you love smart, honest, and digestible global insights. Well, GZERO Media is excited to offer you more great content with the launch of a new video series, “In 60 Seconds." Every week, POLITICO's Ben White dishes on US politics, Wired’s Nicholas Thompson brings you the latest in Tech, Sallie Krawcheck’s got your back with Money, Adam Grant covers Work, and of course Ian’s got the World. All in just 60 seconds. Check out a trailer of the series here, and follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook to get your daily 60 second download.

CUBA'S NEW RULES

Cuba, not a democracy by any definition, is now reworking its constitution for the post-Castro era. It’s an update on a National Charter in place since 1976. A draft approved last month offers some interesting insights into the ruling party’s plans.

• There is no change for “the directing role of the Communist Party of Cuba," which will remain “Fidelist” and Marxist-Leninist.
• But the plan “to advance towards communist society" has been removed from the current draft.
• There are still references to socialism and a centrally planned economy, but there is also official recognition of "the role of the market" and of "private property."

The bottom line: Cuba has tinkered with market reforms before. This is not Chinese-style state capitalism, but it appears to be a recognition that another round of economic experimentation is inevitable, and that President Miguel Díaz-Canel will need extra authority to give it a try.

GRAPHIC TRUTH: THE BOOTSTRAP INDEX

One way to measure inequality is to look at how easy it is for those at the bottom of the social ladder to climb their way up—to, as we would say in the US, “pull themselves up by their bootstraps.” A new report from the OECD does just that, identifying the number of generations it would take those born into low-income families to approach the average income in their society. Here’s a look at how 15 countries stack up.

BAD NEWS FOR OSTRICHES

Remember two months ago when your Friday author provided you freshly snapped personal photographs of ostriches living in splendor at the mansion of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych outside Kyiv? Imagine my horror on seeing the report that Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign manager who also worked for Yanukovych, has paid $15,000 for an ostrich-skin suit. Your Signal team is working overtime to verify whether our friend the Ukrainian ostrich paid for this outfit with his life.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

Trouble for US-Turkey – The US slapped sanctions on Turkey's justice and interior ministers this week in response to the continued detention of a US pastor. Andrew Brunson has been in custody for nearly two years. Turkey’s government says he’s a spy with links to terrorists. President Trump calls Brunson a “great Christian, family man and wonderful human being” who is “suffering greatly.” This is incident #743 in a lengthening list of grievances dividing these two governments. No one wants to be the one to blink, and this conflict could get worse.

Trouble in 3D – A US gun rights activist pledged this week to fight for his right to publish online blueprints for 3D-printed firearms all the way to the US Supreme Court after a federal judge blocked him from doing so. Thousands of people were able to download the instructions before the judge issued his order. There are many ways in which new technologies can strengthen the state at the expense of the individual. Here’s a technology that can do the opposite, by making it impossible for national or local governments to regulate the distribution of weapons. Consider the implications.

Trouble for Basic Income – The latest in a series of experiments with “guaranteed basic income,” a program that provides subsistence-level payments that allow people to pursue work without fear of lost benefits, was brought to an abrupt end in Ontario this week. The newly elected Doug Ford administration claimed it was already evident the program wouldn’t work. Critics say he killed the plan for political reasons. Either way, we’ll have to look to future programs in the Netherlands, Italy, and Scotland to learn whether and how these sorts of programs can help governments and workers cope with changes in the nature of work. An earlier experiment in Finland was canceled.

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

Egyptian Zookeepers – If you visit Cairo's International Garden municipal park, and a park employee tells you you’re looking at a zebra, ask yourself the following questions: Are its stripes parallel? Is its snout black? Is its face free of obvious paint smudges? If you answered no to these questions, check the ears. Are they small and pointy? If so, you’re looking at a donkey, and you should get out of there. It’s not as bad as that Chinese zoo that tried to pass off a dog as a lion, but it’s pretty bad.

Trump at the supermarket – President Trump claimed in a speech this week that Americans must present a photo ID to buy groceries. (His spokeswoman says he meant alcohol, but Trump doesn’t drink.) The point is clear: Don’t ask Trump to shop for you. This is not an area where he has a robust level of experience. You’ll have to buy your own groceries.

Plogging – The Swedes often invent good things, but “plogging” is not one of them. Plogging is the practice of picking up and disposing of litter while jogging. Your Friday author believes that picking up litter and running for exercise are both worthwhile enterprises, but that each deserves our full attention.

HARD NUMBERS

1.5 billion: President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the remaining $262 billion worth of US imports from China not already targeted by the administration. That includes $1.5 billion worth of Christmas ornaments. #WarOnChristmas

130 million: President Trump, who faced scrutiny yet again this week for his treatment of the media, has used the phrase “fake news” in a total of 258 tweets during his presidency. Nonetheless, confidence in two organizations often targeted by the president, the NY Times and Washington Post, has increased, even among Trump supporters. In fact, over the past two years, the New York Times’ monthly online readership has doubled to 130 million.

556: An Indian man filled 556 potholes in the country’s most populous city, Mumbai, over the weekend to commemorate the death of his son in a bike accident caused by poor road conditions. India’s notoriously shoddy infrastructure could use a few million more people just like him.

41: With an election coming up in October, 41 percent more Brazilians have registered to vote from abroad compared to the country’s last election in 2014, according to government figures. That’s not a sign of confidence that this election outcome will set Brazil on the right track. 

-6: Nicaragua’s economy is expected to contract by almost 6 percent this year, in large part due to disruptions caused by the ongoing fighting between embattled President Daniel Ortega and opposition protestors. In 2017, the country's economy grew by nearly 5 percent.

 WORDS OF WISDOM

“It is a big robbery. At least [former President Robert] Mugabe rigged with brains. These guys rig like schoolchildren.”

 — An angry voter, Alex Kamasa, in Zimbabwe

This edition of Signal was written by Willis Sparks and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Gabe Lipton (@gflipton) and Leon Levy (@leonmlevy).