Signal: Iran’s protests, China’s Big Brother, and America’s Lawnmowers

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IRAN FIRST

In your Tuesday edition of Signal, Alex Kliment wrote about ongoing protests in Iran. A few more thoughts on this subject.

Two factors driving the protests might surprise you: The nuclear deal and government transparency.

First, the nuclear deal raised expectations in Iran that years of sanctions and hardship were over. But…

• Most of the post-deal financial gains have gone to boost Iran’s oil production, not the well-being of ordinary citizens.
• Oil prices are at $67 per barrel this week, down from $115 in 2014. Given the supply swell enabled by technological advances in production, we may never again see $100 oil.
• Iran still faces some sanctions, and threats of new penalties block foreign investment.

Second, President Hassan Rouhani’s drive for greater transparency has given citizens a closer look at what’s in the government budget. They see…

• sharp cuts in subsidies that will make food and fuel more expensive
• a 40% cut to the government’s cash transfer program, which will see more than 30 million people lose their coverage
• more money for an aggressive foreign policy.

Why, the protesters ask, aren’t Iran’s leaders directing cash toward those who need it most? Reform of subsidies becomes necessary in every developing country, but dashed expectations and new hardships are a combustible combination. Rouhani has moved forward with belt-tightening before most of Iran’s people have seen much benefit from his presidency.

It’s especially hard to forecast the intensity and stamina of a protest movement that lacks central leadership, but unless something dramatic and unexpected happens, this one poses little threat to Iran’s leaders. If necessary, the Supreme Leader will order a crackdown, and security forces will follow orders.

But this is another challenge for leaders who still base their legitimacy on a revolution (in 1979) that fewer and fewer Iranians are old enough to remember.

THE PAKISTAN TRIANGLE

Who was the target of President Trump’s first 2018 tweet? Not North Korea, Iran, Democrats, or the “failing NY Times.” The winner is… Pakistan.

“The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. They give safe haven to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan, with little help. No more!”

This is another issue where Trump makes a fair point his critics won’t acknowledge while also oversimplifying a complex issue. Pakistan has cashed a lot of US checks over the years, and its military still seems more interested in antagonizing India than in eliminating terrorists who pose threats beyond Pakistan’s borders.

And no one in Washington has forgotten that when US special forces found and killed Osama bin Laden in 2011, he was living in Abbottabad, Pakistan, close enough to the country’s elite military academy he could have ordered a pizza from the school cafeteria and strolled over to pick it up. Trump has threatened to withhold $255 million in military aid to this Cold War/“War on Terror” ally.

Here’s the complication: China will fill any vacuum the US leaves in Pakistan. “Pakistan has made enormous efforts and sacrifice for the fight against terrorism,” said a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman on Tuesday. China and Pakistan, he added, are “all-weather partners.” Trump is right: Pakistan doesn’t fully deliver on counter-terrorism. But US aid also buys US influence. Is Trump’s threat just another hardball negotiating tactic, or will he give China new leverage in South Asia?

PUSH NOTIFICATION: TRUMP AND THE BUTTON

Trump says he’s got a bigger nuclear button than Kim Jong-un. But, is it big enough? Check out this exclusive insight from GZERO Media’s #PUPPETREGIME series, directed by Signal’s own Alex Kliment…

ELSEWHERE THIS WEEK

Ethiopia’s prime minister announced the release and pardon of political prisoners and the closure of a detention center that watchdog groups say has been used for torture. North Korea reopened its hotline to South Korea, and President Trump declared war on the world’s grubbiest Svengali, Steve Bannon.

THE NEW RULES

A tweet from the Washington Post’s @emilyrauhala grabbed our attention this week: “I’m on the Tianjin to Beijing train and the automated announcement just warned us that breaking train rules will hurt our personal credit scores!” In every country, people want access to services and protection from those who break rules.

China has introduced an early-stage social credit system that can use the massive amounts of data it collects from citizens to punish those who cheat, steal, pollute, and otherwise endanger fellow citizens. But the state can also use the information to decide whether it can trust you, and your credit score can determine what sort of future you and your family can expect. Imagine the possibilities.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

Trump vs Bannon — What happens if the White House really finds itself at war with political arsonist Steve Bannon and ascendant conservative media outlet Breitbart? This story isn’t just Washington gossip. Someone is going to lose support from millions of Americans, and there are a lot more people loyal to Trump than to Bannon.

The guy who writes the weather report — From Wednesday’s Washington Post: “Bomb cyclone to blast East Coast before polar vortex uncorks tremendous cold late this week.” In the article’s first three sentences, we get “unforgiving cold,” “punished,” “assault,” “monster storm,” “hammer,” “exploding storm,” “winter hurricane,” “battering,” “damaging winds,” and “blinding snow.” That’s good stuff.

American lawnmowers — Another telling stat: Britain’s Royal Statistical Society informs us that two Americans are killed on average each year by immigrant Muslim terrorists, while 21 are killed by “armed toddlers,” and 69 are killed in lawnmower accidents. #KnowYourEnemy

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

Trump’s Big Button — North Korea’s Kim Jong-un warned this week that he has a “nuclear button” on his desk. President Trump responded that he has one too and his is bigger. We’re ignoring this boast because Trump does not have a nuclear button. The president authorizes a nuclear strike via an order to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest-ranking US military officer. The chairman then passes the order to an airbase in Nebraska. The order is then sent in coded form to “on the ground” teams. The button on the president’s desk brings a Diet Coke, not Armageddon.

Burglary instructions — Contents of an unidentified Chinese burglar’s personal notebook got laughs across China this week. Among his notes, “Take different ways of escape based on the value of goods. Keep in mind to run first if the value is high. Escape quickly, hide, take cover and run far away.” We’ve seen this notebook only because the would-be thief was arrested with it in his pocket. And as he surely knows by now, sucking at burglary will kill your credit score.

The Eurovision Song Contest — I stopped watching in 1976 when “Pump Pump” by Finland’s Fredi and the Friends finished in 11th place. Watch for yourself and judge the scale of the injustice.

HARD NUMBERS

837: Chinese direct investment in Pakistan totaled $837 million in 2017, compared to $42 million for the US. China loves a vacuum.

15: Iranians have become 15 percent poorer in real terms over the past decade, according to the BBC. Now some of them are calling for change.

7: China’s One Belt One Road initiative is expected to cost more than seven times what the US spent on the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after World War II. This is the most important geopolitical story you’ve never heard of.

150: The Chinese government has committed $150 billion dollars to AI in its current five-year plan. The US spent $1.2 billion on unclassified programs in 2016.

22: The popularity of British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Tory Party dropped 22 percentage points this summer, the largest such drop for any UK prime minister in the past half century. #StrongAndSteady

WORDS OF WISDOM

“The official line pursued by the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia, who are our allies in many ways, is almost one that would lead us to war.”

French President Emmanuel Macron reminds us why US-Iran relations is one of Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2018

This edition of Signal was written by Willis Sparks, and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy), and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Alex Kliment (@saosasha). Give a friend the Signal here.

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