Signal: Dangerous decisions, economies of scale, and inflatable penguins

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DANGEROUS DECISIONS

After a roller-coaster week, Prime Minister Theresa May struck an 11th hour deal deal with the EU this morning that will advance Brexit talks to the next phase. What was all the drama about?

Earlier this year, British Prime Minister Theresa May, encouraged by favorable poll numbers, decided to call an election that she believed would increase her Conservative Party’s majority in parliament and boost her political standing ahead of Brexit negotiations with European leaders.

Then she ran a lousy campaign, and her party lost its majority. To form a new government, she was forced to partner with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), a small party based in Northern Ireland that few outside Britain know much about.

The central problem with that choice became evident this week. To advance the conversation toward the future of the trade relationship between the UK and EU, May must first finalize the Brexit “divorce agreement” by agreeing on three things: The status of EU citizens living in the UK, the size of the UK’s debt to the EU, and the status of the border that separates the Republic of Ireland (an EU member) from Northern Ireland (part of the UK).

To avoid restoration of a “hard border” between the two Irelands, a relic of the bad old days, May implicitly agreed this week to allow Northern Ireland to remain in the EU’s single market. On Monday, that decision was presented as the breakthrough that would move Brexit forward. On Tuesday, the DUP, with 10 members in Britain’s 650-member parliament, said no. Is it not true, asked DUP leaders, that if Northern Ireland remains in the EU single market, other parts of the UK can demand the same privilege? Heads began nodding in Scotland, Wales, and London. This morning, May found language that threads the needle and allows Brexit to move forward.

The details of today’s deal remain unclear, and there are still plenty of dissatisfied people on both the UK and EU sides. But a hurdle looks to have been cleared, and Brexit talks will advance.

ERDOGAN V TRUMP

President Trump’s announcement that the US would recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and (eventually) move its embassy there has provoked anger and lamentation from around the world. But it was the response from Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that really caught our eye. Erdogan warned that Trump’s move crosses a “red line” for Muslims and that he will rally other Muslim countries in protest. A few thoughts:

• Erdogan clearly didn’t learn the lesson from President Barack Obama that you should never draw a red line in the Middle East unless you’re willing and able to enforce it.
• Erdogan can’t speak for the world’s Muslims any more than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can speak for the world’s Jews, as he sometimes claims to do.
• Erdogan’s comments tell us more about his personal frustrations with Washington and his intention of using anti-American rhetoric to rally support ahead of the next elections than about his policy plans.
• Palestinians have reason to be incensed. They don’t need Mr. Erdogan’s guidance on how to vent their anger.
• As my friend Alex Kliment wrote in Tuesday’s Signal, most Arab leaders are worried more about Iran than about Israel. They’ll loudly protest Trump’s move, but as long as he treats Arab governments as allies and stays tough on Iran, they won’t do much about it.
• France’s President Macron offered the most sensible response: “The status of Jerusalem must be resolved through peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians.”

A final point: The US hasn’t even chosen a site for the new embassy. It will be a long time before a secure, well-constructed embassy can be built. It might take more time than Trump will have as president. For that reason, it might never be built.

PUPPET REGIME: PUTIN PUPPET PENANCE

In this week’s Puppet Regime, Vladimir Putin dishes on his hopes for Trump, and takes responsibility for every single thing that has gone wrong in America. All of it. Everything. Also on YouTube.

AN AMERICAN SENSE OF SCALE

The US share of global GDP has fallen considerably over the past few decades, as emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico and others have expanded. In 1970, the US accounted for 36.4% of the world’s economic output, according to the World Bank. In 2016, that figure was down to 24.6%.

Yet, many Americans seem to have an exaggerated view of the decline of their country’s economic power. Here’s some context from Mark Perry and Richard Florida.

Economies that are comparable in size:

• California and the United Kingdom
• New York City and Canada
• Florida and Indonesia
• Los Angeles and Australia
• Ohio and Saudi Arabia
• New Jersey and Argentina
• Massachusetts and Poland
• South Carolina and Vietnam

US economic heft isn’t what it used to be, but no one should underestimate the continuing appeal of access to its markets and the influence it provides US policymakers, even at the state level and local level.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

The 212 Defend Islam Action Alumni — One year ago this week, hardline Muslim groups that want to transform Indonesia into an Islamic state governed by Sharia law succeeded in defeating the ethnic Chinese and Christian former Jakarta governor and having him thrown in jail. Those same groups commemorated their achievement this week with a large rally attended by the governor they supported as his replacement. Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo, remains popular and a defender of secular and inclusive government, but we’ll keep watching to see if these groups challenge him more directly in 2018 ahead of national elections in 2019.

Yemen — The killing of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh will provoke more violence and create more misery in a country that’s already home to an enormous humanitarian crisis. The war in Yemen has killed about 14,000 people and forced 3 million from their homes. More than 1 million are afflicted with cholera. The UN estimates that more than 20 million Yemenis need humanitarian help.

The HJK Helsinki football club — Two events were booked at the same time in the Tukkutori market in Helsinki. The first was a torchlight march of far-right Finnish nationalists to celebrate the 100-year anniversary of Finland’s independence. The second was a children’s group that wanted to mark the same occasion with rabbits and alpacas. Local officials ruled that the guys with torches applied for the permit first. The HJK Helsinki football club then offered the kids, bunnies, and alpacas the use of its stadium. #Suomi100

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

Early ANC voting — Cyril Ramaphosa has reportedly opened a lead in the battle to decide who will lead the ruling African National Congress into South Africa’s next election in 2019. We’re ignoring preliminary results. We’ll be watching closely (and writing about) the actual outcome of the vote later this month. Its significance is historic, but much can change between now and then. 

The color yellow — Here’s another story you can ignore until later in the month. Spain’s electoral authority has ordered officials in Barcelona to remove yellow lights from public fountains around the city because they fear the color yellow, associated with Catalan identity, will encourage separatist sentiment. Catalans will vote in regional elections on December 21. Even if separatist parties win there will be no sudden moves toward independence, but demand may again begin to grow. That won’t be because of yellow lights in public fountains. 

The Yulin City Zoo — Dear Finnish kids, please do not send your bunnies and alpacas to the zoo in Yulin, China, where the featured attractions are inflatable penguins, some roosters, and a “longevity turtle.” This is not China’s first zoo scandal. According to The Straits Times, “In 2013, an ‘African lion’ in a zoo in Henan was revealed to be a Tibetan mastiff when it barked.”

THE NEW SPACE RACE?

Some provocative thoughts on artificial intelligence, from a new Eurasia Group-Sinovation Ventures white paper on the future of AI in China: China has 3 times the number of mobile phone users as the United States, places 10 times more online food orders, and does 50 times the US volume in mobile payments. If AI is the most strategically important technology of the 21st century, and huge data sets are the key to mastering AI, will Beijing have an insurmountable advantage?

HARD NUMBERS

230: This week the U.S. and South Korea launched its largest-ever joint air exercise, which included 230 aircraft. #KimControl

560,000: Lethal violence (homicides and war) killed 560,000 people in 2016. The world’s five most violent countries: Syria, El Salvador, Venezuela, Honduras, and Afghanistan.

27: Australia is the twenty-seventh country to legalize same-sex marriage. The country’s 47,000 same-sex couples can now tie the knot.

65: With his trip to Greece, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan became the first Turkish president to visit Greece in 65 years.

53: China is one of the world’s most optimistic nations, with 53 percent of citizens saying they believe the world is “getting better.” Only 16 percent of Americans, seven percent of Germans, and four percent of Mexicans feel the same way.

WORDS OF WISDOM

“A deal in Brussels is good news for Mrs May as we can now move on to the next stage of humiliation.”

- Former leader of the UK Independence Party and prominent Brexit proponent Nigel Farage reacts to the recent breakthrough in negotiations between the UK and EU.

This edition of Signal was written by Willis Sparks, and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy), and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Alex Kliment (@saosasha). Give a friend the Signal here.

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