Signal: A Crucial Vote, Saudi popcorn, and (another) Putin calendar

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SOUTH AFRICAN CROSSROADS

South Africa reaches a crossroads this weekend as the ruling African National Congress elects a new party leader. This is the person who will lead the ruling ANC into the next presidential election in 2019.

A quarter century from the end of apartheid, this country is in rough shape.

• More than one-third of South Africans aged 15–35 are unemployed.
• Unemployment is four times higher for black youth (40 percent) than for white youth (11 percent).
• Just 30 percent of South African households qualify as “middle income.”
• The average annual number of violent protests climbed from 21 between 2004 and 2008 to 164 from 2014 to 2016.

Why has this happened? Falling global demand for the gold, platinum, diamonds, and coal the country produces leaves its government with less money to invest in development, exacerbating problems created by the physical legacy of apartheid: the distance between the townships and rural areas where many black South Africans still live, on the one hand, and the schools and jobs that could help them escape poverty on the other. But the ANC must accept blame for corruption and lousy leadership. Jacob Zuma, president since 2009, faces 783 charges of corruption and racketeering.

ANC delegates will vote this weekend. The contenders are Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Ramaphosa is a former trade unionist turned successful businessman. He leads an ANC faction that recognizes the need to balance moves to transfer more of the country’s economy and land into black hands with a consistent effort to maintain investor confidence. Dlamini-Zuma is former chair of the African Union Commission, former health minister, former foreign minister, and Zuma’s former wife. She heads a faction of the ANC that wants to protect its privileges and keep Jacob Zuma out of jail.

Keep in mind that South Africans under 30 are too young to remember apartheid. For them, the ANC is not the party of liberation but the party of power. It’s not the party that brought change; it’s the party that resists change. That’s part of why it’s not clear that either candidate can lead the ANC to victory in 2019, leaving the Democratic Alliance in position to lead the first non-ANC government since the end of apartheid.

The ANC’s credibility and future are on the line this weekend. The vote will be close. By Monday, we should know who won.

ALABAMA EXIT POLLS

Alabama elected a Democrat to the US Senate this week. For those unfamiliar with that state’s political tendencies, that’s the equivalent of the US president announcing that Russia is suddenly a key US ally. OK, bad analogy. Just call it a sizable surprise.

There are other reasons that Alabama’s vote made headlines. In a state that President Trump won last year by 28 percentage points, this week’s exit polls show that just 48% of voters approve of his job performance while 48% disapprove. The more startling stat is that just 32% strongly approve while 41% strongly disapprove.

Last year’s presidential vote totals and this year’s Senate race exit polls don’t make for an apples-to-apples comparison, and these numbers don’t prove that anyone in Alabama has changed his/her mind about Trump. Instead, they suggest that different people are turning out to vote in 2017 than cast ballots in 2016. In part, that’s because Alabama Republicans nominated a fantastically awful candidate for Senate.

But in a country where 42% of registered voters didn’t cast a ballot for president last year, elections turn on each side’s ability to motivate its supporters to show up on election day. With control of the House and Senate up for grabs in 2018, Alabama provides another sign that Dems are fired up and Republicans have cause for concern.

PUPPET REGIME: THE ALPHABET ACCORDING TO TRUMP

In this week’s Puppet Regime, President Trump hits a high note. Also on YouTube.

ELSEWHERE THIS WEEK

The 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation declared East Jerusalem to be the capital of Palestine, condemned Donald Trump, and reiterated its commitment to a “just and comprehensive peace based on the two-state solution.” Chileans will elect a new president on Sunday, Prime Minister Theresa May lost a key vote on Brexit, US House Speaker Paul Ryan denied retirement rumors, Sonia Gandhi announced her retirement as president of India’s Congress Party, and President Trump drank 84 Diet Cokes.

CHINA BIOMETRICS

Human Rights Watch published a report this week that accuses the Chinese government of secretly creating a database that catalogs iris scans and blood types of everyone aged 12–65 in Xinjiang province, home to more than 10 million Muslims, mainly ethnic Uighurs. Information is reportedly collected via government-provided medical checkups. It’s not clear how many people know their identities are being recorded in this way or whether participation is strictly voluntary.

This is not just a story about China and its Muslim minority. Biometric identification will become a bigger part of all our lives in coming years. There are many ways in which biometric ID can improve and protect our lives, but this story reminds us that today’s tools can be used for new purposes tomorrow. In some cases, as in Xinjiang, their use is already cause for concern.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

The Lula ruling — An appeals court in Brazil announced this week that it will rule on January 24 on whether corruption charges against former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will stand. If so, he can’t run in next October’s presidential election. Even if his chances of winning the election may be overrated, his name on the ballot would have a big impact on the race.

BBC Elsewhere — Without this invaluable website, your Friday author wouldn’t know that The Republic of The Gambia now claims that a written agreement that grants land to be used for a restoration of the Russian monarchy is a “false and faked document.” We would never have heard of “Arch Chancellor Prince Anton Bakov,” a man who claims to be Prime Minister of the Romanov Empire. Nor would I know that tourists who dress as Mario-kart video game characters while driving go-karts around Tokyo are now required to wear seat belts.

Saudi cinema — We’re pleased to see that Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s cultural opening will allow Saudis to return to movie theaters for the first time since the late 1970s. We’ll be watching to see how long it takes Saudi moviegoers to figure out just how many Star Wars episodes they’ve missed.

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

“For Mexico In Front” — The conservative National Action Party (PAN) joined forces this week with the center-left Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and the Citizens Movement party. At this point, the new coalition, known as “For Mexico in Front,” looks set for third place in next July’s presidential election behind the PRI and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s MORENA party.

The 2018 Putin Calendar — Thanks for the sexy calendar Vladimir Vladimirovich, and Merry Christmas to you too. Thanks especially for keeping your shirt on this year. But you have to stop sending us these things. We get it. You’re dreamy. You don’t have to prove this every December.

Shen Yun — If you live in a big US city, you’ve probably seen the posters of leaping Chinese women, the colorful flowing robes, and the promise of “art that connects Heaven and Earth.” But for the 13th year in a row, we’re skipping Shen Yun. It’s not because the Chinese government says these self-proclaimed “elite Chinese artists” are the Falun Gong’s dance troupe and a carefully choreographed bid to subvert Chinese Communist Party rule through subversive kitsch. Nope, we’re not going for the same reason we never went to River Dance. Happy-looking dancers are boring. Dancers should look sad until the curtain call. That’s a rule. Fred Astaire is the only exception. And the Nicholas Brothers.

HARD NUMBERS

65 and 18: The average age of Sub-Saharan Africa’s leaders is 65. The average age of the region’s citizens is 18.

70: The lower house of India’s national parliament sits for only 70 days a year. That compares with 131 days in the US House of Representatives, 142 days in the UK’s House of Commons, and 150 days in Japan’s Diet.

12: Democrats have outperformed their Republican opponents by an average of 12 points more than predicted by the partisan split in the special elections that have been held since Trump’s election victory. #TrumpEffect

1/3: More than one-third of Puerto Rico is still without power three months after Hurricane Maria.

6,700: At least 6,700 members of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority were killed during the first month of the government’s crackdown, according to Doctors Without Borders. The government claims there have only been 400 casualties.

80: Iran and its allies now provide 80 percent of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fighters, according to an estimate from officials in the Trump administration.

WORDS OF WISDOM

“What’s the requirement of my job? I don’t have to be very clever. I don’t have to know that much. I just do have to be calm.”

- British Brexit Secretary David Davis stayed true to his word with a gaffe this week that risked undermining the recent breakthrough in Brexit negotiations.

This edition of Signal was written by Willis Sparks, and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy), and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Alex Kliment (@saosasha). Give a friend the Signal here.

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