Signal: Breakthrough in Germany, Angry Erdogan, and Algorithmic Overlords

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-Ian

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CRUNCH TIME IN EUROPE

Late last week, Germany’s two largest parties reached a preliminary agreement to form a new government, presenting a possible breakthrough in the country’s worst political crisis in decades. While the agreement between Chancellor Merkel’s CDU and the center-left SPD still faces serious hurdles, a successful deal would end an unusual period of uncertainty in German politics and create new momentum behind French-led efforts to further integrate Europe.

Two key questions to consider:

• Would a new Grand Coalition be good for Germany? The country’s two largest parties — the SPD and CDU — have held the reins of power in a so-called “Grand Coalition” for 8 of the past 12 years. Bringing the center-right and center-left together provides stability and consensus, but can they deliver on an ambitious agenda that will reverse the historic electoral gains of the country’s far-right and renew faith in the value of the European project? A majority of Germans (55%) are skeptical.
• What would another Grand Coalition mean for Europe? French President Emmanuel Macron has put forth a set of bold proposals to deepen European economic and financial integration by creating an EU finance minister and a joint budget for the eurozone, the bloc of 19 countries that use the euro as their currency. Macron can only succeed if he has a stable and willing partner in Berlin. While momentum has shifted decidedly in his favor, time is of the essence – elections for the European parliament are slated for early 2019, and voters will want to see progress.

In 2017, the European Union dodged several existential crises that risked undermining the bloc’s future–from the influx of millions of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa to the historic performance of the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in France.

The Merkel-Macron axis represents a unique opportunity to push back against populist, anti-establishment parties and to demonstrate that the European Union can benefit all of its members. Progress depends on what happens next in its least expected source of instability–Germany.

GRAPHIC TRUTH: THE DAY AFTER…

Experience is often considered a pull for political leaders, but there comes a time when voters want change. Here’s a look at the longest serving leaders in Europe. Look over these names and imagine what comes next.

ERDOGAN’S ANGER GROWS

The Trump administration has announced plans to create a force of 30,000 troops to protect territory inside Syria now held by America’s Kurdish allies, and the president of NATO ally Turkey is, unsurprisingly, hopping mad about it. “A country we call an ally is insisting on forming a terror army on our borders,” responded Recep Tayyip Erdogan. “What can that terror army target but Turkey? Our mission is to strangle it before it’s even born.” Watch this story.

Erdogan’s fury centers mainly on his fear that Syrian Kurds will provide inspiration and tangible support for Kurdish separatists inside Turkey. But this US decision merely exacerbates Erdogan’s anger on other issues, such as the dispute over Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish preacher living in Pennsylvania whom Erdogan blames for fomenting unrest inside Turkey. The US refuses to extradite him. But the larger reason US-Turkish tensions will grow in 2018 is the prospect of early elections in Turkey later this year, which Erdogan intends to win in part by playing to anti-Western sentiment among his most reliable voters.

GZERO WORLD WITH IAN BREMMER: YOU BREXIT, YOU BUY IT

We’re back. In the first GZERO World episode of 2018, Ian talks Brexit with former UK Chancellor George Osborne and Putin shows off his dance moves in Puppet Regime–Puerto Rico yo nunca dejare!

FACEBOOK: WHEN ALGORITHMS RULE

Here’s an uncomfortable fact of life in the 21st century: we live in a world where algorithms increasingly decide what we see, hear, and think. Facebook offered a stark illustration last week when it announced it would tweak its news feed to emphasize more updates from family and friends, and fewer stories from publishers and brands.

Founder Mark Zuckerberg (who elected him editor-in-chief?) says the changes are intended to improve the wellbeing of the site’s 2 billion-plus users, but publishers, who have increasingly come to rely on Facebook for ad revenue, were taken aback. Meanwhile, there are already signs that the tweaked code could have unintended consequences, including potentially exaggerating the influence of “fake news.” It’s a reminder that building the world’s most influential website is the easy part. Managing the political fallout of wielding that much power? It’s complicated.

HARD NUMBERS

386: In the first 11 days of 2018, there were 386 protests in Venezuela that centered on demand for food.

80: Just one in 45 Indians owns a car or truck, only 3% have ever been on an aeroplane, and 80% say inequality is a big problem. India has boosted those earning below $2 a day to $3, but it hasn’t helped those at the bottom of the ladder climb much higher.

40: About 40 percent of the population of sub-Saharan Africa, or nearly 400 million people, live in urban areas. Over the next 25 years, that number is expected to double, increasing demand for new and better infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries.

17: Remittances from Salvadorans living in the United States account fora colossal 17% of the country’s GDP. Their status in the US is an increasingly open question.

15: A new Starbucks opens in China every 15 hours. But a recent agricultural census in China found 314 million people, or 40% of the country’s workforce, was employed in farming in 2016.

This edition of Signal was written by Alex Kliment (@saosasha) and prepared with editorial support from Kevin Allison (@KevinAllison), Leon Levy (@leonmlevy) and Gabe Lipton (@Gflipton). Spiritual counsel from Willis Sparks.

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