THE SIGHTLESS BIRD ECOPANEMIOLOGY

SELECTIONS FROM THE PRISONS OF A DESCENDANT OF AMERICAN SLAVES MIND

ECOPANDEMIOLOGY, THE NEW SCIENCE OF POPULATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, HEALTH (PCH).

Climate Change focus has been the treatment of a symptoms. Climate Change and Pandemic source has always been over population.

RCP 8.5

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC was created to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation options. Through its assessments, the IPCC determines the state of knowledge on climate change. It identifies where there is agreement in the scientific community on topics related to climate change, and where further research is needed..  

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the fifth in a series of such reports. The Fifth Assessment Report was finalized in 2014. As had been the case in the past, the outline of the AR5 was developed through a scoping process, which involved climate change experts from all relevant disciplines and users of IPCC reports, in particular, representatives from governments.

REPRESENTATIVE CONCERNTRATION PATHWAYS (RCPs) are not new, fully integrated scenarios (i.e., they are not a complete package of socioeconomic, emissions and climate projections). They are consistent sets of projections of only the components of radioactive forcing that are meant to serve as input for climate modeling, pattern scaling and atmospheric chemistry modeling," according to the RCP Database. If done correctly, these models of how energy is cycled through all parts of the planet can be used to estimate dozens of environmental variables (winds, temperature, moisture, etc., simulating

historical conditions and then matching the results to test the models.

If the models can adequately recreate the past, they are then run forward in time to predict what may happen in the future. (driving by looking in a review mirror).

The CM3 is just one of many climate models that are analyzed to make predictions about our changing climate.

REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS or RCPs, specify the amount of radioactive forcing (RF) in 2100 relative to 1750, Pre Industrial Revolution, Pre Vaccines, Pre America.

IN 1750 THE GLOBAL POPULATIONS IS ESTIMATED AT 700 MILLION. TODAY 2020 IS APPR-XIMATE 8 BILLION.

The high concentration pathways, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 depend on assumptions of abundant fossil fuel for future production. Researchers have questioned whether remaining world supply can meet such demand.  We do not have enough fossil fuel to achieve these two climate hells. These projected paths have been adopted by the world as facts. RCP 8.5 assumes business as usual while 50% of new energy in America is renewable.

Why have we focused on the ex post event of climate change as opposed to the ex ante event, population growth. The economics of climate change has been to treat the symptoms of over population in the world economic systems, beneficial phenomena for the mercantile nations of Europe for exports

The creation of +100,000,000-populated nations creates growing middle classed to consume exporter goods. India is expected to exceed China as the most populated nation. Nigeria expects to reach +500,000 by 2050. Brazilians, Indonesians etc. continue to defy the government and burn the rainforest with concentrations of new microsites for domestic animal exposure and human transfer.

Ecopandemology, the science of economics pandemics begins with human population management. The consequences and risk over population are pandemics and climate change.

We do not model or forecast paths of Pandemics or disease until an event. Yet,

Pandemics have a path. We are currently experiencing Pandemic version of RCP 8.5. The coronavirus path as climate change RCP 8.5 can be managed with innovation, behavioral changes, non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions. Each is the consequence of a world economic system that benefits from over population.

The economy and human health have a fundamental economic relationship. A Pandemic’s aggregated demand of non-healthcare goods decreases due to unemployment and the lost of income. Much of the Aggregate demand backward shift is compounded by Nonpharmaceutical behavioral modifications such as social distances. Labor-intensive industries have a history of high social contact environments, challenges disease and worker productivity and product sanitation.

Behavior modification transitions are more efficient with populations with experience. For example, the 1918 Spanish Flu had less impact on older Americans who had survived the Russian Flu. They knew what it required.

Former slaves and Descendants Of American Slaves leaders had accepted of doctrine of legal segregation in 1890. A quarter of a century had been invested hygiene education and practice. A culture of hygiene was strong enforced with a racially inferiority complex and fear of being persecuted if the became disease carriers. As the key agrarian labor input in the American south they could not and risk illness. The military was segregated in during the Spanish era, World War I. These social modifications, segregation, self help quarantines where strong. Descendants of American slaves death were the lowest during the Spanish Flu era. Children and young white males had the highest Spanish Flu deaths. Coronavirus 9 is not a Flu.

Production and business function can be modified with new technologies. In some cases deferred technology modification will be changed in the short run i.e., meetings, administrations. Capital-intensive industries or operations short are a priority in governmental intervention and financing in order to achieve sustainable non-pharmaceutical solutions. Capital financing and production modification must be short term. In the long run we will all be dead.

KEY TAKE AWAYS

·      Contractions and Pandemics are economic cleansing forces; poor economic and humanitarian practices will be challenged. “We will never pass this way again”.

·      Sustainable production functions will be solutions must be optimizing.

·      Sustainable structural changes in the economy must accelerated.

·      Recessions and Flus are cyclical and seasonal. Major Contraction, Depressions and Pandemics are mid term approximate 3 years.

·      The Human condition pre and post Pandemic are the key determinants of an individual.

·      Health and Pandemic risk. Labor productivity risk must be management from a holistic health perspective.

·      The Spanish Flu was influenza COVID-19 is a coronavirus

·       More American soldiers died from the flu than were killed in battle, and many of the deaths attributed to World War I were caused by a combination of the war and the flu. 

·      The Spanish Flu alone killed about 325,000 American men compared with 53,000 in combat and less than 150,000 women.

·      They heavy loss of men to the war and Spanish Flu modified aggregate supply. Social change occurred, America increased the utilization of women and Descendants Of American Slaves as labor inputs. The military was desegregated informally in World War I when more front line medical assistance was required and later formally with the work of union leader A. Philip RandolphCONTRACTIONS

Economists have classified 47 economic contractions as recessions in the United States since the Articles Of Confederation. Major modern economic statistics, such as unemployment and GDP, were not compiled on a regular and standardized basis until after World War II. The average duration of the 11 recessions between 1945 and 2001 is 10 months, compared to 18 months for recessions between 1919 and 1945, and 22 months for recessions from 1854 to 1919. I was taught that recessions were an economic cleansing force. Recessions are the invisible forces of capitalism way of removing the weak and inefficient. Depression leads to a high unemployment. It is more likely a balance sheet recession can cause depression due to falling asset prices and bank losses; this has a large impact on economic activity.

Recession is common in many countries; it is all part of the business cycle. Depression means there is a fall in economic activity lasting for a number of years. Depression is an economic plague without a clean economic diagnosis or definition. Some economists advocate that depression continues up until the point that the activity has returned to its original state. Depressions and pandemics duration may not be as significant as the permanent modifications and scares.

There have been five major recessions that occurred in the 1900s. The specific years were as follows

·      1974

·      1975

·      1980

·      1981

·      1991

DISEASE CYCLE

In general in the United States, flu season can start anytime in late fall, peak in mid-to-late winter (between January and February), and continue through early spring. On average, flu season lasts about 13 weeks. It will usually end by April, but in some years it can linger into May.

In 1918 the Spanish Flu more of a disease depression than recessions. the

global pandemic lasted for two years, a significant number of deaths were packed into three especially cruel months in the fall of 1918. In November 1918 approximately 200,000 America died from the Spanish Flu in one month. Even the president Woodrow Wilson got the Flu. The flu as recession was a cleaning force after it was all done the old and weak had pass by 2023 and the average life of a America had dropped by 12 years. The Spanish Flu had completed a W path

PRESIDENTS AND ECOPANDEMIOLOGY

Woodrow Wilson and Donald Trump were challenged by the unknown and undefined science of ecopandemology. Spanish influenza pandemic swept across the world aided by the soldiers who moved around during World War I resulting in a death toll estimated to exceed 100s of million

Governments failed by poor planning, poor communication management and leadership. The World was at war. The American president was conflicted in maintaining public moral, focus and resources committed to the war similar today, in Trump’s case the economy and reelection.

President Wilson as President Trump challenged his chief physician's advice and sent in thousands of more soldiers on transport ships to the frontlines in France, which seemed to have resulted in the virus spreading across the world.

American ships crammed with soldiers arrive in France spreading the disease. The ships were called floating coffins . Over 200,000 were identified with the disease. Many fell ill in transit on the ships. The soldiers thought it was the typical flu. President Wilson’s primary objective was to get bodies to the war front. President Trump’s measure of risk is failure to achieve a second presidential term and a poor stock market and unfavorable economy.

Each president was plagued with contradictions; Trumps contractions are well documented by the media. Wilson's blunder was promising global isolation and neutrality during the Great War. 

A PANDEMIC LEADER

Similar to WWI in America’s Revolution War of 1776 20,000 continental troops died in battle with the British, however, 50,000 troops died from small pox. The British had introduced small pox as a biological weapon in the earlier French and Indian War.

It was an effective killing weapon against the French and Indians. 

In 1721, Lady Mary Wortley Montagu had imported small pox variolation to Britain after learning of it while traveling in Constantinople. Inoculation for smallpox appears to have started in China around the 1500s.

The practice of variolation, the predecessor to the smallpox vaccine. Edward Jenner introduced the latter in 1798, when it was called cowpox inoculation, or vaccine inoculation (from Latin vacca = cow). Smallpox inoculation continued to be referred to as variolation (from variola = smallpox), whereas cowpox inoculation was referred to as vaccination

Inoculation originated as a method for the prevention of smallpox by deliberate introduction of material from smallpox pustules into the skin. This generally produced a less severe infection than naturally acquired smallpox, but still induced immunity to it. This first method for smallpox prevention, smallpox inoculation, is now also known as variolation.

A competent leader was Georgia Washington. George Washington contributed greatly to the progression of public health systems in America. During his time working with the Continental Army, Washington observed how smallpox and other diseases spread like wildfire through Army camps and gatherings. This was often due to the cramped and dirty living conditions of these places.

Washington understood the destructive nature of smallpox and other diseases such as malaria, diphtheria, and scarlet fever.

Washington, like others of the time period, was not intimately familiar with the exact mechanisms of the small pox virus. However, he and others were able to realize that men who had previously contracted and subsequently recovered from smallpox were unlikely to become ill a second time. Thus, early on Washington recognized the strategic advantage of these individuals.

Malaria and yellow fever were already rampant in Africa, and years of exposure in Africa rendered a great number of the incoming slaves immune to the two diseases, while others were carriers for the diseases. This made African workers very valuable in the New World harsh climates from Brazil to Cuba. Health has always been intertwine with economics. The arriving

Europeans brought slaves to the Caribbean islands, both of which were carriers of diseases. Most slave illness was from work environment

In 1711, and again in 1770, observers recorded that enslaved Africans suffered and died from Small Pox at a rate equal to Whites (Wood 1974:77). Africans knew about Small Pox and some of them knew about inoculation. The Negroes practiced inoculation in Senegal and other parts of Africa. Cotton Mather learned about inoculation from his African servant.

As early as 1721 a slave named Onesimus taught Boston doctors how to remove pus from and small pox victims and implant the it in a surgical wound of a healthy person in order to create immunity. This voodoo medicine would save many colonist lives and allow Washington to immune much of his army.

During an outbreak in Boston, Washington sent troops made up only of men who had previously been infected with smallpox. With this, he was able to both protect his soldiers and take advantage of the vulnerability of Boston and its British inhabitants during the smallpox outbreak of March 1776. He was one of the first to introduce the idea of compulsory health initiatives such as widespread inoculation. 

Washington believed that he would be able to keep his troops healthy through sanitary and quarantine methods. Local citizens challenged Washington on Nonpharmaceuticals practice

The importance of keeping his men healthy outweighed the economics and other risks, and almost all Continental soldiers were inoculated against smallpox. Just as Woodrow Wilson survived Spanish Flu, Washington was survivor of smallpox.

Keeping a score card Georgia Washington Defeated the Pandemic, won the War and Presidency.

Trump much as Wilson will have a tarnished presidency. One can say that Wilson won the War but broke even because the pandemic deaths were too great. Trump has less than 6 month for Coronavirus and the voters to

In the early stage Americans believed that the Spanish Flu source was due to the arrival of immigrants to American. The origin of the name Spanish Flu is the early warnings from Spain.

Spain was a neutral nations in World War I. As a result, medical professionals monitored the health of each side, allies and axis.

Spanish health official identified a new disease which thought was the resurgence of the “Black Plague”. Today the origins of the Spanish is ranges of the limestone mines of Kansas, which may have been immigrant worker to Northern China which is a fertile overpopulated environment fertile with Microsites.

Today the virus proliferation is believed to be poor communication from China and unfavorable America and European responses with respect to speed and duration to respond with non-pharmaceutical measures.

Because of the great changes in the economy over the centuries, it is difficult to compare the severity of modern recessions to early recessions. No recession of the post-World War II era has come anywhere near the depth of the Great Depression, which lasted from 1929 until 1941 and was caused by the 1929 crash of the stock market and other factors. The economists of that era were classical.

In 1918 soldiers were falling sick everywhere with the devastating flu spreading fast and the fact that it could rapidly develop and kill a person in less than 24 hours of them contacting it proved to be frightening. As soldiers from the United States were sent to France and other parts of Europe, Spanish Influenza spread all across the world.

THE GREAT REGIFT

At the turn of the century according to the National Park Service, the idea of a monument presented by the French people to the United States was first proposed by édouard René de Laboulaye, president of the French Anti-Slavery Society and a prominent and important political thinker of his time. The project is traced to a mid-1865 conversation between de Laboulaye, a staunch abolitionist, and Frédéric Bartholdi, a sculptor.

The National Park Service, in a 2000 report, deemed that the statue was most likely conceived in 1870. In another essay on their website, the Park Service suggested that Laboulaye was minded to honor the Union victory and its consequences, "With the abolition of slavery and the Union's victory in the Civil War in 1865, Laboulaye's wishes of freedom and democracy were turning into a reality in the United States. In order to honor these achievements, Laboulaye proposed that a gift be built for the United States on behalf of France. Laboulaye hoped that by calling attention to the recent achievements (FREEING SLAVES) of the United States, the French people would be inspired to call for their own democracy in the face of a repressive monarchy

The French intent of a gift, the Statue of Liberty celebration America entry into the world free people by abolishing slavery was vandalized if a modifying plaque of a poem written by a Jewish immigrant after her death. Without her permission. The poem was the New Colossus

Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she

With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!

Lazarus's friend Georgina Schuyler began an effort to memorialize Lazarus and her poem 16 years after her death, which succeeded in 1903 when a plaque bearing the text of the poem was put on the inner wall of the pedestal of the Statue of Liberty. The statue because an invite for European immigration and the celebration of the abolish of slavery was erased.

This spirit of Emma’s poem fueled the acceptance of over 20 million non-English speaking immigrants to America prior to the Spainish Flu and Keynesian Economics. New York City became 75% immigrant.

CREATING THE ENVIRONMENT FOR A PANDEMIC

Pre Spainish Flu, the American North ripe for pandemics. Living conditions for immigrants were challenging. Buildings that had once been for a single-family were increasingly divided into multiple living spaces to fit this growing population. Tenements were these narrow, low-rise apartment buildings that were all too often cramped, poorly lit and lacked indoor plumbing and proper ventilation.

WHEN YOU BUILD OR MOVE INTO THE JUNGLE

LA Grippe is the foreign-sounding name for a disease that was neither fearful nor a stranger to most Americans at the turn of the last century. This name for the Spanish Influenz

A typical tenement building had five to seven stories and occupied nearly all of the lot upon which it was built (usually 25 feet wide and 100 feet long. Many tenements began as single-family apartments, and many older structures were converted into tenements by adding floors on top or by building more space in rear-yard areas. With less than a foot of space between buildings, little air and light could get in. In many tenements, only the rooms on the street got any light, and the interior rooms had no ventilation. Only the middle room got any heat during the cold winters and in the summer it was extremely hot. Tenements were at a cheap rate and were what most immigrants could afford when they came to America.

In 1910 30.4% of all deaths occurred among children aged less than 5 years compared to approximately 1.0% in 2019.

1910, the three leading causes of death in America were pneumonia, tuberculosis (TB), and diarrhea and enteritis, which (together with diphtheria) caused one third of all deaths.

 Of these deaths, 40% were among children aged less than 5 years. Today heart disease and cancers accounted for 54.7% of all deaths, with 4.5% attributable to pneumonia, influenza, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection .

Public health action to control infectious diseases in the 20th century is based on the 19th century discovery of microorganisms as the cause of many serious diseases (e.g., cholera and TB). Disease control resulted from improvements in sanitation and hygiene, the discovery of antibiotics, and the implementation of universal childhood vaccination programs. Scientific and technologic advances played a major role in each of these areas and are the foundation for today's disease surveillance and control systems. Scientific findings also have contributed to a new understanding of the evolving relation between humans and microbes .

Microbe’s exposure often occurs when over populated countries in the world people are forced to move in to previously unexplored , uninhabited places , rain forest, mountains , jungles etc. The domesticated livestock’s, dogs and pets become the front line defense as they explore the new land. They are the canaries out the cage. This over population is also the key source of climate change. Climate and Pandemics go hand and hand.

The influenza pandemic of 1918–1919 coincided with a major wave of immigration to the United States. More than 23.5 million newcomers arrived between 1880 and the 1920s, mostly from Southern and Eastern Europe, Asia, Canada, and Mexico. During earlier epidemics, the foreign-born were often stigmatized as disease carriers whose very presence endangered their hosts. Because this influenza struck individuals of all groups and classes throughout the country, no single immigrant group was blamed, although there were many local cases of medicalized prejudice. The foreign-born needed information and assistance in coping with influenza. Among the two largest immigrant groups, Southern Italians and Eastern European Jews, immigrant physicians, community spokespeople, newspapers, and religious and fraternal groups shouldered the burden. They disseminated public health information to their respective communities in culturally sensitive manners and in the languages the newcomers understood, offering crucial services to immigrants and American public health officials..

Immigrants were often suspected as diseases carriers of more serious tuberculosis, typhus, cholera, or trachoma. Americans feared these newcomers weakened by illness might be unable to support themselves.

It was difficult, at times, to secure the compliance of the foreign-born with American standards of sanitation and hygiene, and public health regulations that seemed to them alien to their own beliefs about disease, prevention, and therapy. Foreign-born physicians, ethnic community leaders, and the foreign-language press were important mediators between public health officials and immigrants. They labored to diminish fears of the native-born that newcomers might be responsible for the epidemic. Institutions organized by the ethnic groups to which the newcomers belonged provided much-needed assistance to their own and to others during the crisis.

Health and economic circumstance are conveniently place at the feet of the individual responsibility.

THE MEAT PACKING INDUSTRY

Upton Sinclair published The Jungle in 1905 to expose labor abuses in the meat packing industry. But it was food, not labor, that most concerned the public. Sinclair's horrific descriptions of the industry led to the passage of the Pure Food and Drug Act and the Meat Inspection Act , not to labor legislation.

His primary purpose in describing the meat industry and its working conditions was to advance socialism in the United

States. However, most readers were more concerned with several passages exposing health violations and unsanitary practices in the American meat packing industry during the early 20th century, which greatly contributed to a public outcry, which led to reforms including the Meat Inspection Act. Sinclair famously said of the public reaction, "I aimed at the public's heart, and by accident I hit it in the stomach."

The book depicts working-class poverty, the lack of social supports, harsh and unpleasant living and working conditions, and a hopelessness among many workers. These elements are contrasted with the deeply rooted corruption of people in power. A review by the writer Jack London called it "the Uncle Tom's Cabin of wage slavery."

Sinclair was considered a muckraker, or journalist who exposed corruption in government and business. In 1904, Sinclair had spent seven weeks gathering information while working incognito in the meatpacking plants of the Chicago stockyards for the socialist newspaper Appeal to Reason. He first published the novel in serial form in 1905 in the newspaper, and it was published as a book by Doubleday in 1906.

The Virus of 2020 greets a familiar America fuels by exploited immigrants in the meat packing facilities and the new sharecropping of right to work laws in red states that allow firing with out cause massive part time staffing in order to deny employee benefits. Retail is the new sharecropping. As share cropping retail is out dated and obsolete and has been replace by online shopping, EBay and Amazon. Retail survives on labor exploitation. After 100 years the more things have changed . The more the remained the same.

Illnesses among meat and poultry workers were relatively high compared with other manufacturing sector workers, prior to the Coronavirus Pandemic according to a Federal Government Accounting Office (GAO).

 Workers in this sector are often recent immigrants and for legal and knowledge less likely to report illness because of fear of job loss. Conditions remain similar to the time of “The Jungle” to the nature of the work and little incentive to innovate. The workers work close together in facilities. Social distance is impossible. Worker and managers have pushed back on CDC guidelines requiring routine sanitation and social distancing measures.

In April 2020 in the peak of the Coronavirus the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) relaxed protections at 15 poultry plants by allowing an increase in poultry production speeds that the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union said would lead to more crowded working conditions and greater risk.

Risk. As of May 1, 2020 over 5,000 meat and poultry plant workers had COVID-19. Cases were reported in 115 plants located in 19 states, and at least 20 people had died.

In 1918 there were no anti biotic or an advance medical treatment Non pharmaceutical Intervention was the primary weapon against the flue Pandemic. The world was at war with low technology and unsanitary trenches. World War I movements are comparable to today’s global trave

ANOTHER LEADER NAMED WASHINGTON

The Cotton States and International Exposition Speech was an address on the topic of race relations given by Booker T. Washington on September 18, 1895. The speech laid the foundation for the Atlanta compromise, an agreement between African-American leaders and Southern white leaders in which Southern blacks would work meekly and submit to white political rule, while Southern whites guaranteed that blacks would receive basic education and due process of law.

The speech, presented before a predominantly white audience at the Cotton States and International Exposition (the site of today's Piedmont Park) in Atlanta, Georgia, has been recognized as one of the most important and influential speeches in American history.

Washington began with a call to the blacks, which composed one third of the Southern population, to join the world of work. He declared that the South was where blacks were given their chance, as opposed to the North, especially in the worlds of commerce and industry. He told the white audience that rather than relying on the immigrant population arriving at the rate of a million people a year, they should hire some of the nation's eight million blacks. He praised blacks' loyalty, fidelity and love in service to the white population, but warned that they could be a great burden on society if oppression continued, stating that the progress of the South was inherently tied to the treatment of blacks and protection of their liberties.

He addressed the inequality between commercial legality and social acceptance, proclaiming "The opportunity to earn a dollar in a factory just now is worth infinitely more than the opportunity to spend a dollar in an opera house." Washington also suggested toleration of segregation by claiming that

BLACK AND WHITES CAN EXISTS AS SEPARATE AS FINGERS BUT WWORK TOGETHER AS A HAND.

The acceptance of American apartheid was not embrace by Black immigrants such a W.E.B. Dubois, Marcus Garvey and other immigrants. The only life that Booker T. Washington, George Washington Carver and other Americans has know was that of a slavery.

This American apartheid of physical separation fueled self help and independence in the former slave community. Hygiene education was critical for domestic workers. Similar is to George Washington, Booker T Washington created a quarantine and medical infrastructure of racial segregation that may have may help explain the low Spanish Flu impact in those community.

When the 1918 La Grippe began its deadly tour across the United States, as the immigrants a host of major public health, medical, and social problems, already beset the newly freed slaves. By 1918, medical and public health reports had documented that African Americans suffered higher morbidity and mortality rates than white people for several diseases.

The Atlanta Board of Health, for example, reported in 1900 that the Black Death rate exceeded that of the white death rate by 69%. 2 In an analysis of the 1900 census, W.E.B. Du Bois, the influential sociologist and civil rights activist, found that African American death rates were two to three times higher than for white people for several diseases including tuberculosis, pneumonia, and diarrheal disease.

At the turn of the 20th century, black people found themselves in the midst of the “nadir in American race relations,” an historical period marked by disfranchisement, anti-black violence, legalized segregation, black peonage, and white supremacist ideology. Racism and legalized segregation restricted access by black patients and health professionals to health-care facilities.

This would shaped how they experienced the epidemic and how the epidemic affected them.

The socio psychological impact of recent slavery conditions dependency and discipline to the strong leaders, for example Booker T. Washington and George Washington Carver. The newly freed leadership was paternalistic and had decades of educated the for slave populations of hygiene and proper self-presentation to the general American population. The leadership control of the schools, churches and education of an isolated segregated group made the implementation of American government health care and other standards very efficient. A strong spirit of self-help, unity and discipline was established.

In the North, Washington rival DuBois denounces research papers with theories founded on race as a factor of health susceptibilities. “The high infant mortality of Philadelphia today,” Du Bois wrote, “is not a Negro affair, but an index of social condition.” He argued that with “improved sanitary conditions, improved education, and better economic opportunities,” the health conditions of African Americans would improve. The practice of community sanitary and hygiene education was instilled in the community.

The 1918 flu occurred at a time when 60% of Descendants Of American Slaves lived in the South in a unique special configuration. As share choppers and low cost labor they were the backbone of the South economy. The 1918 Flu occurred at a time of great enlightment of self help in a world of disadvantage and segregation. Between 1916 and 1919, approximately one-half million African Americans had moved from the South. Between 1900 and 1920, black physicians and nurses, frequently in concert with other black professionals, used several strategies to improve the health of African Americans.

 In contrast to the fatalistic views of National health statistical professional such German immigrant Fredrick Hoffman advocating race as the cause, the DOAS leaders firmly believed that disease rates in African Americans could be reduced.

At times their actions were political. Disease prevention to the does had become a since of pride. They pushed for the enforcement of sanitation laws to clean up tenements and for housing reforms to improve black neighborhoods that had greatly deteriorated with the influx of African Americans to northern cities during the Great Migration.

Black health professionals also created programs to teach personal hygiene and sanitation, especially to poor African Americans and to recent migrants from the South. They also sought to increase the number of medical facilities open to black patients. Nationwide, hospitals either denied African Americans admission or accommodated them, almost universally, in segregated wards, often placed in undesirable locations such as unheated attics and damp basements.

The racially exclusionist policies of professional organizations also led African Americans to establish their own associations. Black physicians created the Lone Star State Medical, Dental, and Pharmaceutical Association of Texas in 1886; the Old North State Medical Society of North Carolina in 1887; and the National Medical Association in 1895. In 1908, black nurses established the National Association of Colored Graduate Nurses.

At the turn of the 20th century, the African American lay community also established self-help activities to improve the race's health status. The largest and most significant effort was National Negro Health Week, whose origins can be traced to 1913 when the National Organization Society of Virginia, under the leadership of Robert Russia Moton, established a local health week.

The Virginia program attracted the attention of Booker T. Washington, the influential head of Tuskegee Institute, who viewed good health as critical for racial advancement. He called for a national health week whose goals would be to teach African Americans about the principles of public health and hygiene to help them become stronger and more economically productive. The first health week in 1915 proved successful—16 states held activities

THE RACIAL INCIDENCE OF INFLUENZA A BRIEF CONTENT ANAYSIS

Tommie Burns, Sr. was 12 years of age when influenza struck his hometown of Lumberton, Mississippi. Recalling his experiences he remarked, “It killed more whites than it did blacks.” Several items from black newspapers echoed Burns' view. On October 12, the Defender published a piece from its Atlantic City correspondent, who reported that the town had been dealt a “staggering blow” by influenza but that “among our own population we have had but few cases . . . and we have had no deaths.” The writer continued, “While in the usual parlance, the town ‘is dead' we are not, so cheer up, we have that much more to be thankful for.” On the same day, the Philadelphia Tribune wrote that in West Philadelphia, “hundreds are lying now at the point of death, colored and white” but added, “There seems to be more influenza and deaths among white people than the colored people.”

The Defender published three items on October 26 that also contended that the influenza epidemic affected African Americans less frequently. One dispatched from Commerce, Texas, noted, “The Spanish influenza is still spreading here. So far no deaths have been reported among our people.” Another from El Paso proclaimed, “The Spanish ‘flu' is still raging in the city among the Mexicans and whites. No fatalities nor serious cases among our people as yet.” The third under the headline, “Influenza Spares Race,” maintained that not one African American in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, had contracted the disease. On November 1, in a letter in the Baltimore Afro-American, J. Franklin Johnson opined, “

Black physicians contended that it was a “matter of common observation” by physicians and the lay public that the “susceptibility and fatality” during the epidemic had been greatest among whites.” A January 1919 editorial in the Journal of the National Medical Association pointed to data from the Philadelphia Board of Health that showed that between September 20 and November 8, 11,875 white people died from influenza and pneumonia and 812 black people died. The editorial called the racial differences “interesting” because the death rates of African Americans in the city were “normally much higher than that of the white.

These observations about influenza contradicted prevailing theories about the susceptibility of African Americans to pulmonary diseases, especially as many of the influenza victims died from complications of pneumonia. Physicians, including black ones, offered few explanations for the lower influenza rates. One hypothesis suggested that African Americans were less susceptible specifically to the type of influenza that struck in 1918.

The lack of accurate data collection during the public health crisis and the possibility that African American influenza cases may have been underreported because of inadequate access to medical care make it difficult to conclude definitively whether the incidence of influenza was lower in African Americans during the epidemic.

However, in 1918 the belief that influenza took a lesser toll on African Americans was widespread and strongly held. The black lay public, black physicians, and white public health officials all shared this conviction. Thus, it appears likely that the incidence of influenza was lower in African Americans. Several factors might explain this racial differential. Alfred W. Crosby argues that African Americans were more susceptible to Spanish influenza and that many contracted it during the milder spring epidemic and thus was immune during the more severe fall epidemic. But it can also be argued that black people were less susceptible to influenza during both waves of the epidemic. Segregation cannot be discounted as a factor. It may have functioned as a de facto quarantine that limited the exposure of African Americans to influenza. The reasons for the apparent racial disparity are not clear.

PANDEMNOMICS

In 1918 geographic areas with more in?uenza exposure saw a relative increase in wages, consistent with labor shortages. A recent study by Barro et al. (2020) uses country-level data and ?nds that higher mortality in the 1918 ?u pandemic lowered real GDP by 6-8% in the typical country.

The ?ndings suggest that people’s decision to cut back on consumption and work as a response to increased disease transmission risk reduces the severity of the epidemic, as measured by total deaths. Their model suggests that containment policies require lower economic activity in order to lower mortality, while our empirical ?ndings suggest that swift NPIs may lower mortality without lowering economic output in the mid term.

Non pharmaceutical municipal health department bulletins, local newspapers, and reports on the pandemic. NPI measures consist of school closure, public gathering bans, and isolation and quarantine. Importantly, the declines in all outcomes are persistent, and more affected areas remain depressed relative to less exposed areas from 1919 through 1923.2Importantly, the declines in all outcomes are persistent, and more affected areas remain depressed relative to less exposed areas from 1919 through 1923.

The effects are economically sizable. Reacting 10 days earlier to the arrival of the pandemic in a given city increases manufacturing employment by around 5% in the post period. Likewise, a one standard deviation increase in the intensity of NPIs increases manufacturing employment by 6.5% after the pandemic.

The direct negative effect of NPIs is offset by an indirect effect through mitigating the pandemic, which we ?nd can cause lasting economic costs social interactions and thus economic activity that relies on such interactions. However, in a pandemic, economic activity is also reduced in absence of such measures, as households reduce consumption and labor supply to lower the chance of becoming infected. Thus, while NPIs lower economic activity, they can solve coordination problems associated with ?ghting disease transmission and mitigate the pandemic-related economic disruption.

This exercise utilizes variation in the 1918 Flu driven by local predisposition to in?uenza outbreaks due to climate, immunological, and socioeconomic factors, which in ordinary in?uenza years would not cause economic disruption. Consistent with this empirical evidence, the large economic disruption caused by the pandemic is also evident in narrative accounts from contemporaneous newspapers.

The 1918 Flu first arrived in the eastern U.S., where cities like Philadelphia did not know much about the disease and suffered from a high death toll. The rest of the country was then alerted, and western cities like Seattle reacted with harsher measures as soon as their first cases emerged. The government of that time enforced similar NPIs as today: businesses and schools were closed, public gatherings are banned, and people were asked to stay home if they felt sick. Arguably, these NPI orders saved lives at the cost of accelerating the economy shutdown, as both supply and demand are hurt.

In Early and forceful NPIs did not worsen the downturn. Cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively would have a relative increase in multiple economic indicators after the end of the pandemic. Cities that reacted 10 days earlier after the first case increased manufacturing employment by around 5% after the pandemic. Likewise, implementing NPIs for an additional 50 days increased manufacturing employment by 6.5% in the post-period. shows that cities that enforced NPIs for the time length above the median (in green) have a better outcome in both mortality and economy than those below the median (in red).

Several issues could hamper these arguments, such as the simultaneous economic shock from the end of World War I and the lack of high-frequency data to study the detailed mechanism. They also warned that the evidence cannot directly translate to today’s decisions. The 1918 Flu was deadlier, especially among young people. Compared with the industrial U.S. economy in 1918, today’s economy is more globalized and service-based, and communication technology enables people to work from home. 

Still, supported by epidemiological evidence and robustness checks, the researchers conclude that although pandemics are “highly disruptive for economic activity,” the quick response of NPIs “can reduce mortality while at the same time being economically beneficial.”

Despite this overall progress, one of the most devastating epidemics in human history occurred during the 20th century: the 1918 influenza pandemic that resulted in 20 million deaths, including 500,000 in the United States, in less than 1 year--more than have died in as short a time during any war or famine in the world . HIV infection, first recognized in 1981, has caused a pandemic that is still in progress, affecting 33 million people and causing an estimated 13.9 million deaths (. These episodes illustrate the volatility of infectious disease death rates and the unpredictability of disease emergence.

Lessons learned from the Great Depression and the contributions of John Maynard Keynes have resulted in the cyclical volatility of GNP and unemployment post The Great Depression being less than before.

Keynesian economics named for the economist John Maynard Keynes) are various macroeconomic theories about how in the short run – and especially during recessions –economic output is strongly influenced by aggregate demand (total spending in the economy).

Keynesian economics developed during and after the Great Depression from the ideas presented by Keynes in his 1936 book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. 

Keynes contrasted his approach to the aggregate supply-focused classicaleconomics that preceded his book. Keynesian economics served as the standard economic model in the developed nations during the later part of the Great Depression, World War II, and the post-war economic expansion (1945–1973), though it lost some influence following the oil shock and resulting stagflation of the 1970s. What we are seeing today is pure Keynesian short term economics. Why? Well because in the long run we will all be dead.

As stated previously Supply-side economics was developed in response to the stagflation of the 1970s. It drew from non-Keynesian economic thought, including the Chicago School and New Classical School.

A Bruce Bartlett, an advocate of supply-side economics, traced the school of thought's intellectual descent from the philosophers and David Hume, satirist Jonathan Swift, political economist Adam Smith and United States Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton. It was great theater with roles for monetarist, new players called Reganomics.` This was a far reach backwards for solutions to reccesions created by exogenous financial shocks the lost of fiscal spending by ending Vietnam War and Oil price shocks that has very little to do with economic cyclicality . Unsystematic financial crisis have dominated in recent year. This includes the take overs 1987 stock market correction, Savings and Loan Crisis, Dot.Com technology stock market correction, to the Credit Market Real Estate Great Recession The text book economic booms and bursts have played a minor role in the crisis theatre.

However, what most separates supply-side economics as a modern phenomenon is its argument in favor of low tax rates primarily for numerous collective reasons.

Classical liberals opposed taxes because they opposed government, taxation being the latter's most obvious form. Their claim was that each man had a right to himself and his property and therefore taxation was immoral and of questionable legal grounding. On the other hand, supply-side economists argued that the alleged collective benefit increased economic output and efficiency provided the main impetus for tax cuts.

As in classical economics, supply-side economics proposed that production or supply is the key to economic prosperity and that consumption or demand is merely a secondary consequence. Early on, this idea had been summarized in Say's Law of economics, which states: "A product is no sooner created, than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value". Lacing stock buy backs aside President Trumps tax cut can explain to continued expansion of the US economy prior to the Pandemic.

John Maynard Keynes, the founder of Keynesianism, summarized Say's law as "supply creates its own demand". He turned Say's law on its head in the 1930s by declaring that demand creates its own supply.

 The flu afflicted over 25 percent of the U.S. population. In one year, the average life expectancy in the United States dropped by 12 years. It is an oddity of history that the influenza epidemic of 1918 has been overlooked in the teaching of American history.

In 1978, Jude Wanniski published The Way the World Works in which he laid out the central thesis of supply-side economics and detailed the failure of high tax rate progressive income tax systems and United States monetary policy under Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter in the 1970s. Wanniski advocated lower tax rates and a return to some kind of gold standard. The advent of the financial crisis of 2007–08 caused a resurgence in Keynesian thought, which continues as new Keynesian economics.

Today the Supply Side Economics advocate have been defines as the wealthy and business advocacy while extending others the invisible hand. Keynesian practices are advocated by those in the political economy concern with market imperfections and view government as a bird in hand and the invisible hand as a bird seeking a bush.

This is the rational for the coronavirus stimulus personal $1,200 checks and other forms of demand stimulus in 2020. Health policies of social distancing have resulted in decline in the aggregate demand in high social contact economic sectors public activities, retail shopping, food and beverage service, travel, and entertainment. Aggregate supply has been impeded in sectors that require social contact in production

 The Theory of Moral Sentiments, was published in 1759, by Adam Smith he describes how wealthy individuals are "led by an invisible hand to make nearly the same distribution of the necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants, and thus without intending it, without knowing it, advance the interest of the society." What led Smith to this remarkable conclusion was his recognition that wealthy people don't live in a vacuum: they need to pay (and thus feed) the individuals who grow their food, manufacture their household items, and toil as their servants. Simply put, they can't keep all the money for themselves!

By the time he wrote The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, Smith had vastly generalized his conception of the "invisible hand": a wealthy individual, by "directing...industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention." To pare down the ornate 18th-century language, what Smith is saying is that people who pursue their own selfish ends in the market (charging top prices for their goods, for example, or paying as little as possible to their workers) actually and unknowingly contribute to a larger economic pattern in which everybody benefits, poor as well as rich.

You can probably see where we're going with this. Taken naively, at face value, the "invisible hand" is an all-purpose argument against the regulation of free markets. Is a factory owner underpaying his employees, making them work long hours, and compelling them to live in substandard housing? The "invisible hand" will eventually redress this injustice, as the market corrects itself and the employer has no choice but to provide better wages and benefits, or go out of business. And not only will the invisible hand come to the rescue, but it will do so much more rationally, fairly and efficiently than any "top-down" regulations imposed by government (say, a law mandating time-and-a-half pay for overtime work).

Does the "Invisible Hand" Really Work?

At the time Adam Smith wrote The Wealth of Nations, England was on the brink of the greatest economic expansion in the history of the world, the "industrial revolution" that blanketed the country with factories and mills (and resulted in both widespread wealth and widespread poverty). It's extremely difficult to understand a historical phenomenon when you're living smack in the middle of it, and in fact, historians and economists still argue today about the proximate causes (and long-term effects) of the Industrial Revolution.

In retrospect, though, we can identify some gaping holes in Smith's "invisible hand" argument. It's unlikely that the Industrial Revolution was fueled solely by individual self-interest and lack of government intervention; other key factors (at least in England) were an accelerated pace of scientific innovation and an explosion in population, which provided more human "grist" for those hulking, technologically advanced mills and factories.

It's also unclear how well equipped the "invisible hand" was to deal with then-nascent phenomena like high finance (bonds, mortgages, currency manipulation, etc.) and sophisticated marketing and advertising techniques, which are designed to appeal to the irrational side of human nature (whereas the "invisible hand" presumably operates in strictly rational territory).

There is also the indisputable fact that no two nations are alike, and in the 18th and 19th centuries England had some natural advantages not enjoyed by other countries, which also contributed to its economic success. An island nation with a powerful navy, fueled by a Protestant work ethic, with a constitutional monarchy gradually yielding ground to a parliamentary democracy, England existed in a unique set of circumstances, none of which are easily accounted for by "invisible hand" economics. Taken uncharitably, then, Smith's "invisible hand" often seems more like a rationalization for the successes (and failures) of capitalism than a genuine explanation.

The "Invisible Hand" in the Modern Era

Today, there is only one country in the world that has taken the concept of the "invisible hand" and run with it, and that's the United States. As Mitt Romney said during his 2012 campaign, "the invisible hand of the market always moves faster and better than the heavy hand of government," and that is one of the basic tenets of the Republican Party. For the most extreme conservatives (and some libertarians), any form of regulation is unnatural, since any inequalities in the market can be counted on to sort themselves out, sooner or later.

The banking system plays a potentially important role in the severity of both the decline in demand and productive capacity. Given that the pandemic itself is temporary. Moreover, some effects cannot be neatly classi?ed as affecting only supply or demand.The 1918 Flu Pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920, and it spread worldwide. It is estimated that about 500 million people, or one-third of the world’s population, became infected with the virus. The number of deaths is estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide, with about 550,000 to 675,000 occurring in the United States. The pandemic thus killed about 0.66 percent of the U.S. population. A distinct feature of the 1918-19. A U.S. state at the average level of exposure suffered an 18% reduction in manufacturing output in 1918. Those effects lingered for years and depressed economies, especially in regions with higher levels of infection. the pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920 and infected around one-third of the world population. The U.S. economy experienced a deep recession and serious deflation until July 1921

Cities that suffered from the highest level of the 1918 Flu mortality also saw the largest decline in manufacturing employment. The default rate among businesses and households rose, while bank assets and consumer durables declined relative to the less affected area. They also find the relative declines to be persistent. Areas more inflicted remained more depressed from 1919 through 1923.

“Cities that implemented more rapid and forceful non-pharmaceutical health interventions do not experience worse downturns,” the researchers wrote. “In fact evidence on manufacturing activity and bank assets suggests that the economy performed better in areas with more aggressive NPIs after the pandemic.”

But there are potential similarities between the two pandemics, such as Taiwan and Singapore that implemented early measures, have limited infection growth and have “mitigated the worst economic disruption caused by the pandemic.” In America Seattle took early action. The old Confederate South experiences fewer exposure and deaths relative New York and other Northern States. More specifically West Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee under developed had less impact

Pandemic mortality during the 1918 Flu was associated with relative decline in economic activity. The Cities can be divided into those that were more and less aggressive in their use of Non Pharmaceutical Intervention(NPI). Cities that Implemented stricter NPIs (green dots) tend to be clustered in the upper-left region (low mortality, high growth), while cities with more lenient NPIs (red dots) are clustered in the lower-right region (high mortality, low growth). This implies that the cities or regions with large employment and GDP multipliers should be receive Non Pharmaceutical actions immediately in order to minimize mortalities and minimize economic disruptions. Contrary to popular belief NPI’s do not present a trade off of human cost vs. economic. They are positively correlated. Quick and strict Nonpharmaceutical action shortens the recovery time. The United States experienced a major agricultural crisis during the 1980s. Record production during this time led to a fall in the price of commodities. Exports fell, due in part to the 1980 United States grain embargo against the Soviet Union. Farm debt for land and equipment purchases soared during the 1970s and early 1980s, doubling between 1978 and 1984. Other negative economic factors included high interest rates, high oil prices and a strong dollar. By the mid-1980s, the crisis had reached its peak. Land prices had fallen dramatically leading to record foreclosures. The Farm Credit System experienced large losses, which were the first losses since the Great Depression.

THE FARM CRISIS 1980s

The early 1980s saw a farm recession where the financial crisis affected many Midwest farmers with heavy debt loads. Tight money policies by the Federal Reserve (intended to bring down high interest rates upwards of 21%) caused farmland value to drop 60% in some parts of the Midwest from 1981 to 1985.

Record production resulted in a glut of farm commodities, forcing prices down. This glut, combined with a U.S. export decline of more than 20% between 1981 and 1983 (following the 1979 Soviet Union embargo), caused farm debt to hit a staggering $215 billion by 1984 – double of what it had been in 1978.

Farm foreclosures rose dramatically, and economists said more than 33% of farmers were in serious trouble – further depressing land prices. Farmers and ranchers who expanded by buying land and more during the strong export days of the 1970s were often hardest hit. And that crisis rippled across the supply chain and into rural banks and whole communities.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

According to the FDIC, 1,617 commercial and savings banks failed between 1980 and 1994.

There is no single factor that led to the surge in failed banking institutions during the 1980s and early 1990s.

A number of agencies and institutions were created as a result of the S&L crisis

The cost of the crisis was $160.1 billion, according to the U.S. General Accounting Office estimated.

RISING BANK FAILURES EARLY 1980S

According to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) Division of Research and Statistics, 1,617 commercial and savings banks failed between 1980 and 1994. These failed institutions held roughly $206.2 billion in assets.

In another study using FDIC data, 1,043 thrift banks—institutions that mainly take deposits and originate mortgages—failed or were otherwise resolved between 1986 and 1995. These institutions represented assets totaling $519 billion. The banking crisis of the 1980s was, therefore, a two-headed beast, with one head related to the failure of the S&L crisis—which represented the bulk of the assets and number of banks—and the other linked to the failure of large commercial banks. Contrast this with bank failure data leading up to the 1980s and the magnitude of the crisis becomes evident. For example, just 0.3% of all existing banks failed from 1965 to 1979.

Bank failures eventually reached a post-Depression record of 279 in 1988, representing $54 billion nominal assets as the crisis deepened throughout the 1980s. While relatively small in terms of the total number of banks and bank assets—and in light of the ultimate costs—it led to the very first operating loss for the FDIC. Those losses continued until the end of 1991.

Factors Contributing to the Crisis

There is no single factor that led to the surge in failed banking institutions in the United States during the 1980s and early 1990s. Prior to the onset of the crisis, the legislative and regulatory environments were changing

The Depository Institutions Deregulation Committee and Monetary Control Act of 1980 removed many restrictions on thrifts and credit unions

The Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 gave thrift banks greater latitude to invest in real estate loans

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 fundamentally altered the banking landscape and engendered conditions that contributed to the banking crisis.

The changes in regulatory and economic environments induced unrestrained real estate lending beginning in the late 1970s and continuing throughout the early 1980s. Many analysts consider this to be the primary cause of the banking crisis of that time. Severe economic downturns in the early 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the collapse in real estate and energy prices during this period, were both outcomes and key precipitating factors in an increasingly unstable financial environment. Fraud—primarily looting or control fraud—and other types of insider misconduct played a major role in the overall crisis, as well.

GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION

While government intervention in the banking sector has been cited as one of the major contributing factors to the financial crisis of the 1980s, subsequent action by the government also helped rescue the sector and bring about its reconstitution, even though it was fundamentally altered. As the S&L crisis worsened in the late 1980s, a series of regulatory and legislative changes resulted, with an alphabet soup of agencies and institutions created.

The Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) was established, with the authority to charter and regulate S&Ls.

The Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) was set up in 1989 to dispose of the failed thrifts that fell into the hands of regulatory bodies.

Congress also enacted the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA)—in which taxpayers began to foot the bill—in response to the deepening crisis. This replaced the Federal Savings & Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) and allowed for the transfer of the failed FSLIC's assets, liabilities, and operations to the newly-created FSLIC Resolution Fund (FRF), which was run by the government's Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

SOCIAL COST AND TAXPAYER BURDEN

The U.S. General Accounting Office estimated that the cost of the crisis was $160.1 billion—$124.6 billion of which was paid by the U.S. government from 1986 to 1996. These figures don't count state bailouts or money from thrift insurance funds. Most of the money was paid to depositors as compensation for money milked by insiders. The Federal National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement (NCFIRRE) noted that "evidence of fraud was invariably present, as was the ability of the operators to 'milk' the organization through high dividends and salaries, bonuses, perks, and other means. The typical large failure was one in which management exploited virtually all the perverse incentives created by government policy."

THE BOTTOM LINE

The banking crisis of the 1980s was essentially a crisis of thrift institutions, with some large commercial bank failures thrown into the mix. A rapidly-changing bank regulatory environment, increased competitive pressures, speculation in real estate and other assets by thrifts, and unstable economic conditions were major causes and aspects of the crisis. The resulting banking landscape is one where the concentration of banking has never been greater.

While the number of banks on the FDIC's rolls declined from 14,392 to 7,511 between 1984 and 2004, the proportion of the assets in the banking sector held by the 10 biggest banks increased sharply to almost 60%, by 2005. The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, passed in 1999 removed the remaining legal barriers and allowed giants in commercial banking, investment banking, and insurance to combine operations under one corporate tent.

A healthy banking system can provide this liquidity, mitigating the severity of the decline in demand and production. However, if the shock leads to widespread defaults, it may stress the banking system and lead to lending contraction. In this case, bank losses may act as an important ampli?cation mechanism through a reduction in credit availability. Beyond effects through credit supply, a persistent economic slowdown may also lead to a fall in loan demand and overall credit.

A Keynesian view of today is that aggregate demand equates the productive capacity of the economy. These Coronavirus factors have created a decline in demand. This has increase unemployment while decreasing production. Erased examples are Oil and energy prices are declining when food prices are increasing. Other factors include logistics and trans formation failure.

Keynesian economists generally argue that as aggregate demand is volatile and unstable, a market economy often experiences inefficient macroeconomic outcomes in the form of economic recessions (when demand is low) and inflation (when demand is high), and that these can be mitigated by economic policy responses, in particular, monetary policy actions by the central bank and fiscal policy actions by the government, which can help stabilize output over the business cycle. 

Keynsian economists generally advocate a managed market economy – predominantly private sector, but with an active role for government intervention during recessions and depression.

On the supply side, a more severe in?uenza outbreak depresses labor supply through self-isolation measures in response to increased risk of contracting the virus, restrictions on mobility, illness, and increased mortality. Moreover, the pandemic also causes a general upheaval of ordinary economic activity. For example, efforts to limit crowds reduce the number of employees operating equipment in a manufacturing establishment and even the closure of some business establishments. The supply-side effects should be re?ected in reduced activity in all local economic sectors, including tradable sectors such as manufacturing.

The in?uenza outbreak can also depress demand through a variety of channels. In response to an increase in the risk of contracting the virus, households reduce spending on purchases requiring interpersonal contact. Current and expected future income declines from supply-Moreover, increased uncertainty about future income,

THE MULTIPLIER

Supply-chain disruptions and other spillovers from more severely to less severely affected areas are also likely to play an important role in 1918-19, as they do today.

There are two obvious ways to measure how intensive an industry’s backward and forward linkages are to the rest of the economy. The first estimates the ripple effects of a given number of jobs being lost directly in an industry. In this case, the direct job loss is assumed to be, say, 100, and then the resulting backward and forward ripple effects can be estimated. The second takes a given dollar value of final demand for an industry’s output and calculates how much of this final demand spills over into backward- and forward-linked industries. An example would be assessing the impact of a fall of $1 million in final demand for autos (that is, $1 million less being spent on cars by consumers). This fall in final demand would cost jobs directly in the auto production industry, but would also cause demand to fall in supplier industries and in forward-linked industries that rely on automobile workers (and on workers in the supplier industries) to purchase their output. With the right data, researchers can empirically estimate the number of jobs lost in each link of these chains.

Sector Cycles in the U.S. agricultural production, industrial production, consumption, business investment, and the health of the banking industry contribute to today’s cycles. U.S. recessions are increasingly being exported to the global financial system due to globalization.

A rolling recession, or a rolling adjustment recession occurs when the recession only affects certain sectors of the economy at a time. As one sector enters recovery, the slowdown will ‘roll’ into another part of the economy. On a whole, rolling recessions occurs regardless of nationwide or statewide economic recession and the effects may not be in the national economic measures e.g. GDP (Gross Domestic Product).

In macroeconomics, a multiplier is a factor of proportionality that measures how much an endogenous variable changes in response to a change in some exogenous variable.

For example, suppose variable x changes by 1 unit, whiauses another variable y to change by M units.

Dynamic multipliers can also be calculated. How a change in some exogenous variable in year t affects endogenous variables in year t, in year t+1, in year t+2, and so forth. Comparative dynamics involve the general method of impulse response calculation. 

American Economist Paul Samuelson credited Alvin Hansen for the inspiration behind his seminal 1939 contribution. The original Samuelson multiplier-accelerator model (or, as he belatedly baptized it, the "Hansen-Samuelson" model) relies on a multiplier mechanism that is based on a simple Keynesian consumption function with a Robertsonian lag.

The general method for calculating short-run multipliers is called comparative statics. That is, comparative statics calculates how much one or more endogenous variables change in the short run, given a change in one or more exogenous variables. The comparative statics method is an application of the implicit function theorem.

Dynamic multipliers can also be calculated. That is, one can ask how a change in some exogenous variable in year t affects endogenous variables in year t, in year t+1, in year t+2, and so forth.

The manufacturing has the highest employment multiplier

THE MOST POWERFUL ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL MULTIPLIERS

The path of our economic destiny has been set outside of Washington. It is Washington that is in a Post Humanitarian crisis Quarantine, State may well not succeed or leave the union as much as reprice relationships with other US states and relationship with the Union and globalization, China.

THE LARGEST MANUFACTURING SECTOR STATES SPEED OF CLOSING

OHIO MARCH 9

With manufacturers in Ohio accounting for 12.56 percent of the state workforce, this Rust Belt state remains a manufacturing powerhouse despite recent shifts in the manufacturing landscape. Though smaller in size than many other states, Ohio is still the third largest in American when it comes to manufacturing, with a total output of $107.95 billion in 2017, and $50.40 billion in exports in 2018. To date, Ohio is home to more than 12,000 manufacturing firms, with 89 percent of those exporters being small businesses.

MICHIGAN MARCH 

Boasting total manufacturing output of $96.22 billion in 2017, Michigan has seen a significant resurgence in manufacturing in the past decade. Still king in the motor vehicle and vehicle parts manufacturing marketplace, the Wolverine State has also begun to earn a reputation for manufacturing quality machine parts, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.

CALIFORNIA  MARCH

Consistently ranked among the top 10 states for manufacturing in the U.S., the Golden State workforce has nearly 8 percent of its employees working in that sector. California’s total manufacturing output was more than $300 billion in 2017, and 2018 saw nearly $155 billion in exported manufactured goods. With over 25,000 manufacturing firms (of which 93 percent are considered small to medium.

TEXAS  MARCH

Home to its own power grid and no personal or corporate income taxes, Texas is about as business friendly as you can get among the states. With $247.46 billion in manufactured goods exported from the Lone Star State in 2018, manufacturing accounts for 13.33 percent of the total Texas output while employing 7.04 percent of the state’s workforce. 

NORTH CAROLINA MARCH 15

The second-largest food and beverage manufacturing state and the overall fifth-largest manufacturing state in America, North Carolina is home to the largest manufacturing workforce in the Southeast. The manufacturing industry employs 460,000 skilled workers in North Carolina–nearly 11 percent of the state’s workforce. North Carolina manufacturing makes up about 20 percent of the state’s gross state product, to the tune of $102.48 billion in 2017 and $31.06 billion in exports in 2018. manufacturers.

INDIANA MARCH

Manufacturing accounts for nearly 30 percent of the output in Indiana, where $102.59 billion was generated in 2017. Manufacturing accounts for almost 20 percent of the state’s workforce, with 516,900 workers employed in the sector statewide–an estimated one in five workers. In fact, Indiana has the highest concentration of manufacturing jobs in America. With more than 8,500 manufacturing firms already in the state, Indiana is the second-largest automobile manufacturing state in the nation.

FLORIDA MARCH 17

With more than 12,000 manufacturing firms in Florida, the state has made a big push in recent years to encourage more manufacturing. With the fifth-lowest corporate income tax in the country, the Sunshine State employs more than 331,000 workers in the manufacturing sector..

GEORGIA MARCH 13

A Southeast state that’s blazing trails in the manufacturing industry, Georgia boasts more 480,000 manufacturing jobs, ensuring that the future remains bright for the industry. That’s why the Peach State developed the Quick Start program and partnered with many in-state universities to teach rising students the skills they need for careers in manufacturing. Industry employs nearly nine percent of Georgia’s workforce across 6,600 firms. In 2018, manufacturers in the state generated $36.81 billion in exports, with a total manufacturing output of $61.06 billion in 2017.

TENNESSEE MARCH 17

According to the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the state’s growth in advanced manufacturing is higher than anywhere else in the nation; in fact, it’s 42 percent higher than the U.S. average. Manufacturing accounts for 16.13 percent of the state’s total output, which was $55.70 billion in 2017.

SOUTH CAROLINA MARCH 17

Over the past decade, South Carolina has seen manufacturing growth of 18 percent, the second largest jump in the Southeast. Manufacturers in the Palmetto State account for a total of nearly 17 percent of the state’s total output and 11.55 percent of South Carolina workers are employed in the manufacturing industry. In 2018, South Carolina’s exported goods totaled $33.89 billion.

A HISTORY OF ROLLING REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONTRACTION

TEXAS OIL PATCH CRISIS

At the dawn of the 1980s 349 Texas commercial banks failed and an additional 76 required assistance from the FDIC. The increase in failure rates among Texas banks coincides with the unprecedented increase in the national rate of bank failure in 1984. The number of failed and assisted banks (hereafter denoted failed banks) in Texas approximately doubled each year between 1983 and 1988, increasing from 3 failures in 1983 to 175 in 1988 (and 134 in 1989) . These figures may be somewhat misleading because of the restrictions on branch banking in Texas, which were not removed until 1987. However, with the failure of most of Texas1 largest bank holding companies in 1988 and 1989, the data show a disproportionate amount of failed banks1 assets among Texas banks.

Over the past decade, 349 Texas commercial banks failed, and an additional 76 required assistance from the FDIC. The number of failed and assisted Texas banks rose from 3 in 1983 to 134 in 1989. In 1988 and 1989 failed and assisted banks (hereafter denoted failed banks) in the state comprised over 80 percent of total U.S. failed-bank assets, and over 80 percent of total FDIC reserves for losses on failed banks. In addition, both the domestic energy and local commercial real estate markets, in which Texas banks invested heavily, experienced dramatic declines after 1985.

- Texas commercial real estate growth outpaced increases in office

employment from 1982 to 1987, resulting in a 30 percent office

vacancy rate by 1987 for the combined Austin, Dallas, Houston and

San Antonio areas. Failed commercial banks generally increased

concentrations in construction and land development loans long

after the decline in local real estate markets.

- As commercial real estate vacancy rates grew, it appears that

failing commercial banks continued funding of completed

construction projects, as evidenced by the growth in loans secured

by nonresidential properties. Traditionally, long-term financing

of completed commercial properties would have been taken over by

nonbank financiers.

- Asset growth and increased investment in risky commercial real

estate development projects by failed Texas.

Academic and government CoI studies provide only a very partial picture of the true macroeconomic impact of disease, and fail to consider the contribution of depleted capital accumulation, investment in human capital and demographic change to diminished economic growth.

Use of a 'human capital' approach to valuing production losses due to illness, disability or premature death (which involves multiplication of the total period of absence by the wage rate of the absent worker) is not realistic in settings where a pool of underemployed or unemployed labor exists, perhaps seasonally.

The estimation of these potential production losses to the 'friction period' that it takes to find a replacement worker include consideration longer-term effects such as changes in the supply of labor. After World War I and the Spanish Flu there was a male labor shortage. Coronavirus will permanently modify work place design, in office requirements, travel, while increasing technical and computer services.

Traditional cost-of-illness studies employ a static, partial and inconsistent approach to estimating the macroeconomic impact of disease and injury at the societal level. A more general and dynamic assessment of the present value of forgone consumption opportunities is essential

In short, traditional cost-of-illness studies employ a static, partial and inconsistent approach to estimating the macroeconomic impact of disease and injury at the societal level. A more general and dynamic assessment of the present value of forgone consumption opportunities is more appropriate . The circular flow of income is the identifying the economic consequences of pandemic disease. The circular 'flow of income' framework to depict the main channels of transmission of the economic impact of disease on households, firms and the government

Key drivers of the ecopandemic impact of disease can be understood in terms of injections into and leakages out of the economic system. The circular flow of income, depends on the interaction between different agents. Providing inputs to production, and consuming goods and services with the income earned from these inputs in equilibrium, the aggregate income derived by all economic agents should be equal to aggregate expenditure; if total output is to remain constant, all leakages and injections in the system should even out:

·      Households provide labor and capital for firms, which employ these inputs to produce goods and services.

·      Firms pay wages and rents to households for their productive inputs, and households use this income to consume the outputs of production and to invest to finance future consumption.

·      Quite similar, in a simple model households provide labor to the government for the production of public goods

·      Other citizen activities include financing government activities via the payment of direct and indirect taxes.

Savings and investment, namely the transfer of disposable income (i.e. net of consumption and taxation), which is invested in the firms' productive activities and the formation (or diminution) of future capital stock. Disease and injury may challenge the household economic capacity to such an extent that it is forced to resort to loans and debt.

The government generates revenue through the collection of direct and indirect taxes, loans and any foreign aid made available by the external sector. Governments might also run surpluses and deficits; firms might be net borrowers or net lenders. The government uses this income to purchase goods and services from the firms for the production of public goods. These goods are either provided or sold to households and firms.

The reduction in labor supply also exerts some influence on the operating activities of the firm, even if the firms initially able to maintain its current levels of production by hiring additional workers to replace those that got sick. This is because over time the firm can be expected to experience a reduction in aggregate demand or market turnover due to lower disposable incomes. Moreover, feedback effects can lead to ever declining levels of economic growth, unless counterbalancing injections, such as an increase in foreign direct investment, can contribute to break the cycle.

ECOPANDEMIC

A science of accounting and explaining the intereaction of economics and finance with disease.

DEMAND

The Pandemic and disease increase healthcare consumption while decreasing non heathcare consumption. The net effect is the decrease in aggregate demand. Fast food, Cigarette companies should be correlated , markets are not efficient. Markets are efficient on the inputs of accepted conventions, accepted yet unproven theories. Markets become grids, boards to play the of profession of herds of well educated people. Professionals too afraid to step off the thread mill. Markets have culture, language values mores. They are seldom free.

In a Pandemic food retailers , alcohol, smoking, fast food companies outperform. The most susceptive victims demand these products. Fitness, recreation under perform.

AGGREGATE DEMAND

The equation for aggregate demand adds the amount of consumer spending, private investment, government spending, and the net of exports and imports. The formula is shown as follows: AD =

C + I + G + N

Where:

C = Consumer spending on goods and services declined in non healthcare. The retail and Fast food take multiplier was not enough to offset the decline in non healthcare decrease.

I = Private investment and corporate spending on non-final capital goods (factories, equipment, etc.) Manufacturers retooled to supply healthcare products, ventilators mask etc.. However industrial engineering required for the new sustainable non pharmaceutical health environment will be costly. The traditional Ergonomic productivity challenges (respirators, protective gear, gloves etc..) of the mining, chemicals sectors will proliferate in the economy. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) will gain new power.

However the most efficient non pharmaceutical interventions are robotics and mechanization placing addition pressure on unemployment.

Low interest rates will keep the cost of capital very low, hence industrial investments will be less expensive. Consumer durable goods demand will be strong.

G = Government spending on public goods and social services (infrastructure, Medicare, etc.). National Healthcare will not go away . Government administration and operations will be require to invest in the new non pharmaceutical health environmental design.

Nx = Net exports (exports minus imports)

Unlike Europe and other regions America has not practiced a mercantilism. American imports more than the country exports. Supply chain security and nation security has given birth to a new isolationist period.

INCOME AND WEALTH

Unemployment decreases wealth this has contributed to lower aggregate demand. The psychology of uncertainty is to save in a pandemic. This compounds the decline in aggregate demand lead. In todays Pandemic low interest rate environment consumer do nort think that prices are going up. Many are waiting for the Pandemic spoils. As during the Great Recession, there is anticipation of major mortgage and other defaults.

The flight to safety has increased the value of the dollar. The export of US healthcare goods and other goods are very expensive placing further downward pressure on aggregate demand.

SUPPLY

Aggregate supply or domestic final supply is the total supply of goods and services that firms in a national economy for sell at a specific price and time period.

In 2020 the Ecopandemic transformed American from historically low unemployment with upward wage pressures to high unemployment with upward wage pressure. This is contrary to neo classical economics. The Ecopandemic has complicate the inputs further with Non Pharmaceutical Intervention with labor. Today non pharmaceutical intervention in the work place is a top employee incentive. The short run today is much shorted than the short run of the neo classical economist. Nothing is fixed during times of crisis with the threat of the Defense Protection Act.

Ecopandemic Aggregate supply, "supply-side policies" should be design to increase productivity efficiency in order to enhance national output. Supply-side policies include bailouts of local schools systems and other educational institutions. Incentivized pandemic research and development, support small/medium entrepreneurs, reform labor conditions and integrate pharmaceutical.

SOCIAL WELFARE COST

GDP includes expenditure on health goods and services, which will need to be adjusted. In identifying the present value of the discounted aggregate flows of current and future consumption of non-health related goods and services linked to Pandemic. The most common methodology that has been used in order to derive a societal estimate of the impact of disease or injury is the cost of illness (CoI) approach, which combines 'direct costs' (medical care, travel costs, etc.) and 'indirect costs' (the value of lost production because of reduced working time) into an overall estimate of economic impact on society, often expressed as a percentage of current GDP.

The CoI approach concerns itself with the societal impact of disease or injury, b is far from perfect. Indirect costs of formal sector workers represent lost health and non-health market consumption opportunities, again not necessarily in the current period alone. Non-market production losses (such as the lost productive time of homemakers / informal caregivers) are a challenge. Small business low income people, immigrants and Descendants Of Slaves are often engaged in “non market economic activities. This is not restricted to illegal activity and primarily informal economic activity such as barter. This is why Federal Stimulus is challenging for 40% of the U,S. economy. Stimulus often requires impossible disclosures and reporting. Shadow pricing is inaccurate.

BOOM AND BURST RECESSION

During the time of a boom, consumer confidence level has decreased, this means that there is a decrease in the savings ratio and an increase in private lending.

An increase in debt payment leads to consumers changing their behavior, instead of seeking to borrowing, the consumer’s pay off their debt leading to the saving ratio to decrease in time.

BALANCE SHEET RECESSION

A balance sheet recession happens when companies/banks look over and notice their balance sheet has occurred an error. This is usually caused by a variety of losses. Banks must stop giving money to clients for a short period of time, as this can lead to a decrease in fall in investment spending.

In 2008 the banks let losses fall, with a decline of money leading in bank liquidity banks in general found it hard to borrow money to keep their business intact, it was hard for banks to find ways of borrowing money for investment due to their previous records, this led to the economy falling into recession despite there being APR

As oil prices are increasing, it can cause recession due to the decline in living standards. In this day, there is a high demand of oil, oil has increased in price throughout the years hence the demand for it.

The increase in oil prices in 2008 was a major factor causing 2008 to be in recession.

It has causes aggregate supple to shift, this means businesses can get lower output and higher inflation, this is called "stagflation".

An understanding of employment multipliers—the degree of backward and forward linkages that exists between industries—may often be useful to policymakers and analysts. As an example, the three largest U.S. automobile firms (General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler) directly employ substantially less than 200,000 workers in the United States. Yet it was widely (and correctly) considered imperative among policymakers to not let these firms fail and become casualties of the financial crisis of late 2008. This belief from policymakers was driven by the fully rational fear that the substantial backward and forward linkages from auto assembly jobs would be large enough to cause mammoth ripple effects throughout the economy. Without understanding the scope of these effects, this decision would be harder to understand

Employment multipliers per 100 direct jobs, by major p

Employment multipliers per $1 million in final demand, by major private-sector industry group

Major industry group

Direct jobs

Supplier jobs*

Induced jobs**

Total indirect jobs

Agriculture, forest, fishing, and hunting

5.9

5.4

4.8

10.1

Mining

1.3

3.4

2.5

5.9

Utilities

1.0

4.5

5.9

10.4

Construction

5.5

4.8

6.1

10.9

Durable manufacturing

1.8

4.9

11.6

16.5

Nondurable manufacturing

2.6

4.3

10.4

14.7

Wholesale trade

3.8

4.1

4.3

8.4

Retail trade

9.9

4.6

6.1

10.6

Transportation and warehousing

4.7

5.4

6.0

11.3