SIA’s 2020 Security Megatrends Report is Out... Here’s What I Think

Security Industry Association (SIA) has released its 2020 Security Megatrends report and I highly recommend checking it out. 

In reviewing it, here are my thoughts, questions, hopes, and theses for 2020 Megatrends:

#1 Megatrend is Cybersecurity Impact on Physical Security. 

When do we go from cybersecurity being a “trend” to being a standard operation (SOP) of our industry? My hope is in 2020 we move past “cyber security” and we see trends around the impact its happening. For what it is worth, we need (and will be forced) to treat this in the open vs how we handle 125 KHz prox where we just ignore the insecurities and look the other way. 

• I believe the #1 megatrend is actually “Trust and Ethics” because of cybersecurity, data, and IoT. [#2 is decentralized systems #3 is edge computing and hybrid systems and #4 is transparency as an industry]
• 2nd bullet point under challenges discussing “refresh cycles of legacy installed systems” is an enormous business opportunity for the industry and someone will figure it out. Think of it as the next level “takeover” plan.
• The SNG poll is telling and I predict the “discussion of cybersecurity” will have a declining trend over time due to increased standards, more transparency and overall awareness. In other words...it becomes part of the basic expectations.

#2 Megatrend is Artificial Intelligence (AI)

• Under “Disruption” I would add talent constraints to the issues AI will bring to the forefront of the discussion. The industry is going to be in a bind finding talent, leveling up existing talent and replacing talent in some cases to keep up and incorporate AI.
• “Takeaways” has two points worth echoing and highlighting: (1) “AI will increase applications for situational awareness and make intelligence out of mountains of security data.” Amen! Is your company critically thinking about what this means, the impacts, and how to implement it or are you focused on a long list of priorities based on yesterday’s feature requests? (2) “As the diversity of AI applications grows and as computing power continues to grow and become more commoditized, an increasing amount of AI processing will be handled within edge devices rather than in a centralized , cloud-based environment, according to research firm Tractica.” Whoa!!! Spot on. Our industry is not ready for this as most of the hardware being installed (and has been installed) won’t be able to support what’s coming (too focused on yesterdays specifications vs tomorrows needs). Huge opportunity.

#3 Megatrend is Facial Recognition

• Headliner to me is this is this is primarily about trust and ethics.
• It will be interesting to see who in the end creates the most value and in the end most of the revenue from the use of facial recognition. Service providers like AWS and Microsoft are trying to democratize the technology, regulations are making an impact, and there is a large amount of focus on this from every angle... so it will be fun to watch :)

#4 Megatrend is Emphasis on Data Privacy

• Should we be talking about data privacy or data rights? Or why don’t we talk about data rights as much as privacy?
• What we do and how we do it will matter most.
• Interesting to see what those focused on distributed networks and architectures (blockchain) will do to the industry.
• I predict a good amount of smaller or mid sized manufacturer and security companies the incumbents ignore right now will see exponential growth because of their foundational system architecture decisions made when they were developed. In other words...they are set up properly to support next generation system expectations and will have a clear advantage.
• The chart showing that 77% of data security braces are caused by internal employee actions is spot on. A shift in the Data Privacy discussion will be more emphasis by companies on the internal threats and risks. We spend the majority of our time focused on external threats and the risks and not enough time on internal impacts.
• I love the last point in “Takeaways” - We are shifting to an overall emphasis on privacy, not just data privacy.

#5 Megatrend is Cloud Computing

• I would argue we’ve moved past “cloud computing” and the trend is one of the following: (1) Business impacts because of cloud computing (2) Like the “predictions” section notes...Hybrid systems (cloud and edge): end users are asking for this without directly asking for it and we are explaining it as a “mix” but because systems right now in our industry are either onsite or cloud, we push either onsite of cloud. In order to deliver what the market is looking for (data security, privacy, frictionless experiences, etc) we will need hybrid systems.
• Even though service providers like Amazon with AWS and Microsoft with azure preach “no need for dev ops,” will hybrid architectures bring a new kind of dev ops and is this an opportunity for the integrator channel?

#6 Megatrend is National Security Concerns

• Will this create new partnerships and new business model opportunities for manufacturers to think creatively on how to leverage the friction created by trade wars, tariffs, and politics? 
• Is there a new talent and skill set needed in our industry around “policy?” Not just on what it is or the legal implications but how to find business opportunities around them.
• What are the “quick step actions” needed as described in takeaways?
• I’m not sure this will impact smaller and mid sized integrators anymore than it already does. 
• I am curious about the need and focus of “transparency” within the industry. Transparency touches many parts of our industry but specific to this megatrend, its around security integrators and manufacturers need for it when “assessing their product channels and how they are addressing concerns and working as a holistic entity within security.”

#7 Megatrend is Connectivity and IoT Everything 

• I don’t know...feels like this one has moved on already and I think its about the effects from it like: (1) Resurgence of wall gardened systems. Many ecosystems and products that preach “open” are far from it. We are about to enter the whitewashing ear of “open.” (2) New business models (3) New forms of collaboration and partnerships (4) NBIoT impact [not just 5G] (5) Impact of Megatechs and Silicon Providers going deeper into the connectivity and on device stacks.

#8 Megatrend is Workforce Development

• I am interested in the discussion of diversity inclusion. We as an industry are failing here. Don’t agree? Go to any industry conference and look around. We have an opportunity here and would love to see a more purposeful effort made here. I can do better and will.
• This includes embracing and cultivating younger talent.

#9 Megatrend is Move to Service Models

• I’d take this a step further... the business models of yesterday are under attack and I am excited to see the new ones gain traction. 
• As an example, how our industry address mobile credentials like they are plastic cards is a mistake.
• There is a need for a redefinition of value within the industry and the business models built around those. We are going from an industry sacrificing convenience for security to one of balance and control. 

#10 Megatrend is Identity as the New Perimeter

• This is a good example of what I explained in #9 above. 
• I would argue that what is actually happening is “Logical Access Finally Converges with Physical Access and its Focused on Identity.”
• If you or your company is not familiar with things like PKI or FIDO... you are not ready for this megatrend and are susceptible to disruption. 
• Identity as we know it...plastic cards and abstract data, are losing relevancy to logical service providers. And its about time!
• An impact of this in real life is the change in how access control systems will authenticate and grant access. Right now its driven by a card and centralized/localized data base. Moving forward, you will present your ID and the system will need to know how to respond. Very different form how we do it now. 

In the “Disruption Points for 2020” section, here are some others that I have identified:

• Marketing. Let’s be honest...our industry undervalues this and is way to conservative when it comes to marketing. Incumbents have limited swagger and allow new entrants to suck the oxygen out of the room. Need an example? Follow James Segil of OpenPath on social media. OpenPath has figured out a way to make “system logs,” “tailgating,” and “lock down” super sexy and relevant to an entire community the industry has made a yawner or ignored entirely. 
• Shift or squeeze? External entrants into our industry that see us as a feature vs an industry. Example of this Amazon, Walmart and others entering the in home/apartment/office delivery. Our industry is allowing them to shift or squeeze the value.
• Non traditional investors in CRE Tech. A lot of times these investors were traditionally called “customers.” Historically the industry focused on locking up specifications as a way to lock in customers. The ultimate “specification and lock in” is when the customer invest in a competitive company. 

How do you see it? Let me know. Would welcome the discussion.