Show Me The Money
Ridhwan Rosli
Business Development Manager - APAC Region @ Weltrade Ltd. Global Strategic Partnerships | Global Macro Sense
A very good morning to all market participants as we gear up for the European this Tuesday. A quick snippet of macro goings on, price action & the week ahead to cap proceedings.
Macros
Equity News
Week Ahead
In the US, the week will be dominated by the releases of PCE prices, personal income and spending, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, along with speeches from several Fed officials, including Chair Powell. Additionally, attention will be directed towards the CB Consumer Confidence, the 2nd estimates of Q3 GDP growth rate, new and pending home sales, and Q3 corporate profits.
Globally, monetary policy updates will be on the horizon with interest rate decisions expected in South Korea and New Zealand, accompanied by speeches from various ECB and BoJ officials. October inflation rates are anticipated from Germany, the Euro Area, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Poland, and Australia. Moreover, GDP growth rates will be unveiled for Turkey, India, Canada, and Switzerland. China's focus will be on Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Additionally, manufacturing PMIs will surface for South Korea, India, Russia, Italy, and Canada and Germany will publish the GFK consumer confidence and retail sales.
In the United States, investors will closely follow, October's personal income and outlays report, the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth rate, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. It's anticipated that PCE price inflation slowed to 3.1% last month, marking the lowest rate since March 2021 and the core rate to ease to 3.5%, the lowest in over two years. US GDP growth is expected to be revised higher to 5% from the initial 4.9%, attributed to accelerated consumer spending and robust exports. The ISM data is expected to indicate a continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, insights into the US central bank's policy direction will be sought from speeches by several Federal Reserve policymakers, including Chair Powell's remarks scheduled for Friday. Additional data to watch includes new and pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, and advance estimates of the goods trade balance and wholesale inventories. Furthermore, the earnings season will continue with results expected from Intuit, CrowdStrike, Workday, Snowflake, Synopsys, Salesforce, VMware, and Dell. Elsewhere in America, Canada will release employment data, third-quarter GDP, current account and Manufacturing PMI. Mexico will follow with trade balance, business morale, and unemployment rate, and Brazil with industrial output, unemployment, and foreign trade.
In Europe, the focus will be on the preliminary November CPI reports for Germany, the Euro Area, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and Poland. A decline is expected in the Euro Area's annual inflation rate to 2.8%, and Germany's to 3.5%. Also, speeches by the ECB officials including President Lagarde should provide some light on the course of monetary policy.? In Germany, other key releases include the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator, anticipated to rebound from a 7-month low, while retail sales are forecasted to show no growth for the fifth consecutive month. The labor market will draw attention as jobs data is anticipated from the Euro Area, Germany, France, and Italy. Additionally, France and Italy will release final Q3 GDP estimates, while Switzerland and Turkey will unveil preliminary figures. Other noteworthy data includes the Euro Area's business survey and Switzerland's KOF leading indicators and retail trade figures. Shifting focus to the United Kingdom, attention will be on the Bank of England's monetary indicators and the CBI distributive trades report.
In China, fresh PMI figures will kick off economic data releases for November, after October painted a mixed picture on the impact that added stimulus had on the world’s second largest economy. In Japan, investors await October’s unemployment rate, retail sales, industrial production, and a set of speeches from key BoJ members for hints on the bank’s eventual pivot from ultra-loose monetary policy. In India, all eyes will be on the GDP for the quarter ending in September and the latest manufacturing PMI. Elsewhere, central banks in South Korea and Thailand will decide on their monetary policy, with the former also releasing key consumer and business confidence figures for November. In Australia, fresh inflation data for October will take the spotlight after stubborn price growth drove the RBA to resume its hiking cycle. In the meantime, the RBNZ is expected to hold borrowing costs unchanged.
Finally, oil traders are eagerly anticipating the results of the OPEC+ virtual meeting scheduled for November 30th as producers are facing challenges in reaching a consensus on future production levels.
Sources: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, Vantage Markets.
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