Should You Really Worry about Solar Flares?

The sun may be unleashing powerful outbursts striking Earth, but are these events as worrisome as some hyped headlines suggest?

Sky's COBRA was a good watch! A technological apocalypse managed by politicians - what could go wrong! Reel risk was awesome!

What is the real risk?

A U.K. tabloid (which names itself after the space body responsible for flares) warned of “major continent-wide power blackouts", another of terrifying solar storm coming to Earth". the risk of harm arising from inclement space weather remains far lower than many media reports often suggest. Does this mean we should get warrant issued against our star before it decides to fry our laptops? Not exactly -knowing when to worry and when to act requires understanding, context and perspective. Despite space weather scaremongering, the severe consequences predicted are a work of fiction as risk is tied to the solar activity itself, which follows a roughly 11-year cycle; each cycle, the Sun oscillate once between two states: the solar minimum and the solar maximum (flare activity at its strongest). The sun is roughly two-ish years away from its maximum, so heightened activity is expected for the next few years.

Royal Academy of Engineering published a paper a while ago (10 years or so) which looked at various transport and infrastructure networks which may be affected by a solar storm. It concluded that “The reasonable worst case scenario would have a significant impact on the national electricity grid. Modelling indicates around six super grid transformers in England and Wales and a further seven grid transformers in Scotland could be damaged through geomagnetic disturbances and taken out of service.” It explored the impacts of a solar storm on navigation satellites.

In a blog post on the National Grid ESO website, the company's resident space weather expert Andrew Richards said a “solar superstorm… wouldn’t be the Armageddon people may be imagining”.

tldr: The risk is real - Solar activity does impact our tech and grid. However, a dooms day scenario is extremely unlikely given the measures put in place. The risk is foreseeable and hence managed.

Quick Lesson on Risks

Geomagnetic storms that follow chunky CME events do have an impact on Earth's power grid - that's well known. Some recorded consequences are:

1. Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs):

Geomagnetic storms cause fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field, which can induce electric currents in long pipelines, power lines and transformers. These are known as GICs in the tech lingo.

GICs can flow into power grid systems, causing transformers to overheat and suffer damage, potentially leading to transformer failure.

2. Voltage Instabilities:

GICs can lead to voltage instability and voltage regulation issues within the power grid. This instability can result in voltage collapse or blackouts if not properly managed (note: if not managed - grids do this).

3. Transformer Saturation:

GICs can cause transformers to saturate, increasing the reactive power demand and leading to further voltage control problems. Saturation can also result in additional heating, mechanical stress, and possible damage to transformer insulation.

4. Operational Challenges:

In the worst case scenario (COBRA type thingies), grid operators may need to reduce power loads or temporarily disconnect vulnerable equipment to mitigate the impact of GICs.

Impact on Grid

Worst Case Consequence: Catastrophic damage to high voltage transformers and?major disruption to electricity network. - Extremely unlikely for good grids

Severe Consequence: Damage to some old-ish high voltage transformers? - Low probability (1 in 100ish if i recall correctly)

Most likely Consequence: Reactive power demands led voltage disturbances - This may happen and some local outages may follow.

Impact on Satellites

Damage to Earth-orbiting satellites, especially those in high, geosynchronous orbits is a major risk though (NASA says so I agree!). Communications satellites are generally in these high orbits. Either the satellite becomes highly charged during the storm and a component is damaged by the high current that discharges into the satellite, or a component is damaged by high-energy particles that penetrate the satellite.?

The Safeguards

To control and mitigate the risks from solar flares (or rather GICs), grids deploy a mix of safeguards. Some examples are:

• GIC Monitors: These devices help in early detection of geomagnetic disturbances, allowing operators to take pre-emptive actions.
• Improving Resilience: Better transformer design and better materials that can withstand GICs.
• Predictive Models: Using space weather forecasts to predict geomagnetic storms and prepare accordingly.

In summary, solar flares can disrupt power grids by inducing geomagnetically induced currents that lead to transformer damage, voltage instability, and operational challenges. Proactive measures and preparedness can significantly mitigate these risks.

Historical Incidents (please google details!)

1. The 1989 Quebec blackout
2. The Carrington Event of 1859

So in summary, don't worry - Sun is not planning to switch off your lights or accidently set the SatNav to your in-laws house. Your local water company is far more likely to do so with their relentless digging.

#solarflares #powergrid #sun #GIC #risk