Should We Throw Good Baskets Away and Keep Our Eggs in Just a Few?
Dino R. Padilha, MBA
Technical Director | Power Plants Operations & Asset Management
Reading Ryan Pickering 's recent post discussing the inauguration of a new nuclear plant ("Nuclear's Make or Break Moment") led me to write my point of view regarding the need for diverse generation sources.
To base the discussion, let's delve into Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) recent announcement, a significant milestone in the country's energy journey. Brazil added a record-breaking 5.7 GW of installed power to its energy matrix in the first half 2024. This growth was achieved with 168 new plants in operation. The goal is to add 10.1 GW of new power this year, compared to 10.3 GW in 2023. The MME's picture (in Portuguese) provides a visual representation of the added energy to the matrix in several semesters since 1997.
According to the National Grid Operator's (ONS) data, which differs from the MME with the inclusion of Distributed Generation, Brazilian installed capacity is currently at 223 GW, with 48.3% of hydro, 6.2% of solar, 13.8% of wind, 13.5% of DG, 17.3% of thermal, and 0.9% of nuclear.
This data corroborates the renewable vocation Brazil has always had. However, contrary to some beliefs, this has not started in recent decades. It has been Brazil's vocation in the previous century with the hydroelectric generation, which was around 90% in 2000.
The recent shift to non-conventional renewable sources has positioned Brazil in a promising position, paving the way for a bright energy future. Unlike other countries, Brazil's initial battery infrastructure has already been built as reservoirs. Wind, solar, and DG are displacing other generation sources and saving water for when the wind is not blowing or the sun is not shining. This transition holds excellent potential for Brazil's energy future and allows for delaying the implementation of actual batteries (maybe waiting for better economic or technical conditions).
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While the shift to non-conventional renewable sources is promising, it's important not to discount other sources. At the beginning of the 21st century, Brazil faced an energy crisis that led the country to force electricity rationing of about 20% while implementing an emergency thermal generation program. The energy cuts directly affected the population and reversely impacted the country's growth. In addition, in the last ten years, the country suffered from energy shortages in different periods that required it to activate its thermal reserve capacity.
The point is that a robust energy system needs alternatives to ensure its reliability. Of course, there is a cost for reliability, but the price for the lack of it can be much more significant. I see two parallel paths to the necessary development of renewable energy:
Concerns about the cleanliness of natural gas or the safety of nuclear plants are constantly hammered down and, in my opinion, are well addressed by technology.
Therefore, it's crucial not to eliminate gas-fired or nuclear power generation from the mix. Their continuous development is essential to ensure grid stability in the long run. This will only strengthen and further develop the renewable mix.
Engineer and Manager currently available for career opportunities in leadership, training and emergency response
7 个月Although Nuclear is my preference and belief to provide the needed energy demands for our Society one must keep an open mind and encourage all Technology's. Otherwise Nuclear wouldn’t be on the Table also!
Vice President, NAES Corp
7 个月Proud to say I knew Dino before he was famous!
Advogada - Especialista Jurídico Regulatório, Gás Natural, Energia
7 个月Congrats Dino! Excelent thoughts and well-written article.
Foreign Service Officer
7 个月Yes! We should be encouraging all sources rather than discouraging any. It's not a zero sum game and decarbonising will mean we need more not less electricity. Know that nuclear isn't the only option but also know that all intermittent renewables won't cut it either. There is no one size fits all. In some places, more wind and solar means more fossil fuels needed but in others, like a hydro dominated grid, wind and solar are an excellent complement, with the renewable generation allowing the operators to keep more water behind the dam for when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. Also know that wind and solar don't scale linearly -- particularly for wind, as you build out more, the best sites will be taken and you'll end up with diminishing returns. Investing in efficiency gains is also a useful way to free up additional capacity. Finally, we need to be sensitive to inflationary impacts. Wind and solar may have low LCOE's but not if the operators are paying overly generous feed in tariffs. May be better for governments/operators to install themselves so as to minimize the impact on the ratepayers. Decarbonising will be more expensive, no avoiding that. If it were cheaper, we'd already be doing it!
Nuclear Energy Developer ????
7 个月Phenomenal write up Dino! Divervisty is essential in grid design, with special attention to what we call “clean firm” sources that are both low-emission and dispatchable. Nuclear energy is challenging and beautiful because it requires broad societal mobilization and support. Brazil and so many other countries have earned this trust with its successful operational history of its nuclear plants. As the United States renews our commitment to this energy source, I hope we can become a more collaborative partner in this proven generation source